Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 24/01/21


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    I'd view the end graph on this [email protected]ens It'll likely sit a million miles from its op...honestly a ridiculous performance via the ecm..!!!!

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.5k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Bit harsh Tamara...I thought it was a constructive response by Chino to your reply

    Some great charts this morning (if cold is your thing), and some great posts over the last 24 hours or so as well. But, I have to laugh that already some are worrying about the end of a potential cold

    Genuinely amazed that posters can have any moans about the current output (apart from someone with a squirrel in the sw) Even if it goes awry, it’s still brilliant model watching and half the rea

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    JMA garbage as well. 
    Looks like we’ve been had again eh?*
     

     

     

    *I acknowledge it can change back again.

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    ECM should serve to remind people that nothing is nailed on. It may well be wrong, but is a possibility.

     

     

    Or we could just bin the model entirely? 

    Sorry but can't see ECM being right here..especially in FI

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Ecm amounts to a kick in the nuts. No doubt about that. However, serious question. What happens to that low over southern Ireland between 144hr and 168hr? It just vanishes. 

    ECH1-144.gif

    ECH1-168.gif

    Without seeing the Inbetween period I think it goes west into Iberia which doesn't seem plausible, but we will find out soon enough

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    The difference between the earlier run and this evenings from the ECM is remarkable .

    It also embarks on some bizarre synoptics and evolutions . A frenzy of shortwaves littered all over the place .

    I’m placing this in both my SSO (Suspicious Synoptic Outcome ) and my SG ( Synoptic Garbage ) categories and moving on .

     

    The GFS 18 has sometimes got a grip on things in a general way I find. Great watching this.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Maybe it has picked up the MJO phase 7 which is amplifying in the Atlantic at exactly the wrong time.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    People that didn’t like the look of UKMO you’re looking rather silly lol! Don’t get too greedy is my advice. I’m quite confident this run will be an outlier but not what we really want to see from top model.

     

    Beyond 120 or144 none of the publicly available stuff is a top model

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    D10 looks primed 🤣

    image.thumb.png.ca79d158d4b3d3726869c5cc62df621e.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Am I right in saying though that this morning's ECM op was a cold outlier for the UK?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Maybe it has picked up the MJO phase 7 which is amplifying in the Atlantic at exactly the wrong time.

    That really wouldn't surprise me lol. Law of sod. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Maybe it has picked up the MJO phase 7 which is amplifying in the Atlantic at exactly the wrong time.

    This looks like a battle of competing signals which might be causing this large swing in the output .

    At least the day ten had potential ! 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

    Way north, clearly see we are in Atlantic air, but with meto warnings, could there be trend south, hopefully

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

    It is...for about 20 mins before it turns back to rain 🙈 

    chin up guys..Day 10 has potential...I’ll get me coat 🙈

    In all seriousness I’d bet my house it’s a mild outlier. It’s just one run ...

    DECCBC1B-AB0D-4BC4-AB7B-B3D45D1C7301.gif

    05E7F178-0D46-43C4-BB59-675CFACBC1DF.gif

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    Just now, sheikhy said:

    Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

    Nope that went also... Not a good run at all for Leicester 🤣😉

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Without seeing the Inbetween period I think it goes west into Iberia which doesn't seem plausible, but we will find out soon enough

    Yes hence I posted only the ECM could send the energy due south🙊

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...