Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Singularity]

With slowing and disrupting troughs more the main trend of the past 5 days for output moving within the 5-day range, plenty of reason to be skeptical or seeing the cold air swept away east after next weekend.

Not reason to disregard it though, as I said earlier and Tamara cautioned yesterday.

[Troubleatmill]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

Not worth looking too far ahead for anything other than entertainment / drama?

Gem makes PV look smashed at 240.

We shall see! 

Yeah I'm with you Griff, models are throwing everything out at the moment aren't they! Here's hoping the GEM has it nailed!

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Not reason to disregard it though, as I said earlier and Tamara cautioned yesterday.

No, can never disregard anything no matter what the background signals.

[Don]

14 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Not reason to disregard it though, as I said earlier and Tamara cautioned yesterday.

Hopefully the worst case scenario for February would be a similar theme to January as you mentioned in your earlier post, with plenty of opportunities without deep cold, given the strat?

[Decemberof2010]

Well we all like to refer to the cold spell of 87. But there was a memorable quote from a certain forecaster over another event that year.
And thinking of that, we’ve had a few people calling in saying there’s going to be more than a single cherry picked GEFS member posted tonight. Well don’t worry there isn’t 

 

[Vikos]

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I presume that’s what we call la la land! LoL!  All the L’s.  

Look, now that most (read I!) have had some snow, this winter is already better than most in recent years.  Second point, the SSW effects are continuing to drip feed themselves into the mix as only they know how (and us down here try to figure out every time it happens!).  The MJO is coming to town.  Expect the unexpected.  Expect snow!  Best chance for a cold Feb since 2009 in my opinion.  

Hey Mike

DiDi-Land

I know, we need to keep the faith, backgroundsignals still looking good, but it's a ongoing delay of things. We except about 12-15°C the next days and DiDi-Land has been looking better in the models, tbh

[MATTWOLVES 3]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

Absolutely Matt.  I wasn't the best placed for snow today but it's luck of the draw!  However, like you say, plenty more opportunities to come and hopefully this will continue into February, even if we don't get a deep cold flow.  You cannot say this winter has been boring, even if it has been frustrating lol!  Also, nice for the south east to get a decent for a change this winter!

Don you remain positive even when the dice are unlucky for you. And you keep on hoping till its know longer possible..come June for instance love it.

I think Phil of netweather pointed out earlier about a battle potentially starting...Could be more snow towards mid week..watch this space.

And just to add there have been some signs of recovery of the polar Vortex just recently...but further warming over the coming weeks look possible,and perhaps further wind reversals..we could also be feeling the effects of the last warming for some time yet...courtesy of Marco P.

Edited January 24, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Matt H]

Beautiful ECM 12z ensemble mean at t120/t144.

t120:

t144:

 

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Beautiful ECM 12z ensemble mean at t120/t144.

t120:

t144:

 

And that really is about as far as we can look in even a semi-reliable way at moment. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Beautiful ECM 12z ensemble mean at t120/t144.

t120:

t144:

 

Yes, moving to T240:

Impossible to resolve wedges at that range although lighter blues to the NNE !, displaced Azores high, and trough into Europe.

What’s not to like? 

[Don]

18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Don you remain positive even when the dice are unlucky for you. And you keep on hoping till its know longer possible..come June for instance love it.

I think Phil of netweather pointed out earlier about a battle potentially starting...Could be more snow towards mid week..watch this space.

And just to add there have been some signs of recovery of the polar Vortex just recently...but further warming over the coming week look possible,and perhaps further wind reversals..we could also be feeling the effects of the last warming for some time yet...courtesy of Marco P.

Wouldn't quite go that far lol  but this winter has certainly been very interesting and everyone has a ticket for the raffle!   Did manage an inch of snow this morning which is an inch more than last year!  I think though, you are generally more positive than me and your posts cheer me up when I'm despondent with the outlook!  I just hope February continues to deliver one way or the other and doesn't go the same way as for example as 2019 with 70f breached again!  

Edited January 24, 2021 by Don

[Battleground Snow]

Clear outlier in the critical 168-192 period 

Interesting the spread almost goes down to -9 too

Edited January 24, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Beautiful ECM 12z ensemble mean at t120/t144.

t120:

t144:

 

Definitely mild vs cold battleground scenario again there. Chance of more snow later in the week.

[SLEETY]

hahah ecm was a  mild outlier end of the week going to be interesting  by next weekend,good chance the bitterly cold air arrives,so   maybe might actually  see a single flake of snow this winter by this time next week.

 

 

[Mike Poole]

Off on one, possibly here...but looking at the spread on the ECM ensembles T240:

Look at where the uncertainty is, and more importantly where it isn’t.  Is downstream going to prove to be the new upstream?  I think there is still a possibility of total reverse zonal flow into February...only a possibility mind!

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T120-T168, there are two and the difference between them is a wedge, as illustrated here:

Wedge is in the majority 28:23.  Where’s your money?

Edited January 24, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Don]

1 hour ago, Beano said:

True but as we know from previous times, get a strong PV located around Baffin and it can really fire up the Atlantic and hang around, but like you say...if correct, but we can only go off what the model shows?

Absolutely and wasn't criticising your post in any way, just that there is a lot of uncertainty with the strat currently and with further warmings possible and disruptions, very difficult to know where it will end up.

[mulzy]

Ext EPS mean shows higher heights over Scandinavia spreading to cover all regions to our northwest, north and northeast. Low heights over UK diluting out.

A decent if not desperately cold mean. 

[Scandinavian High.]

8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hahah ecm was a  mild outlier end of the week going to be interesting  by next weekend,good chance the bitterly cold air arrives,so   maybe might actually  see a single flake of snow this winter by this time next week.

 

 

latest 10 day forecast on bbc website saying turning colder Friday chance more snow as low comes in from south west it does not last long as where back in south westerly again following week 2nd February I was hoping for longer lasting colder spell something colder ..

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS mean shows higher heights over Scandinavia spreading to cover all regions to our northwest, north and northeast. Low heights over UK diluting out.

A decent if not desperately cold mean. 

Is there any signal for any proper cold from the East if it went on longer?  Noticed lately that although the GEFS have members that depict a scandi or Greenland-Iceland block, they have dropped all the bonkers runs and if anything only look only slightly better in terms of what is to our East than previous Easterlies this winter, dry Easterlies with frost and fog a possibility - get the feeling that is what the Met Office are thinking too in their 30 dayer.

Edited January 24, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

The uncertainty is highlighted clearly by the next cluster charts (T192-T240):

Interestingly, little appetite for proper blocking over Greenland, plenty for blocking over scandi.  Trough to SE of UK seemingly in all of them, that’s good.  Anyone who thinks the modelling wrt UK cold isn’t improving needs to look at themselves!

[mulzy]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is there any signal for any proper cold from the East if it went on longer?  Noticed lately that although the GEFS have members that depict a scandi or Greenland-Iceland block, they have dropped all the bonkers runs and if anything only look only slightly better in terms of what is to our East than previous Easterlies this winter, dry Easterlies with frost and fog a possibility - get the feeling that is what the Met Office are thinking too in their 30 dayer.

Hard to say but all options are probably still on the table.  I would not rule out a cold and snowy Easterly during February.

[sebastiaan1973]

Dewpoint De Bilt. After 120H the oper has little support.

[Allseasons-Si]

18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS mean shows higher heights over Scandinavia spreading to cover all regions to our northwest, north and northeast. Low heights over UK diluting out.

A decent if not desperately cold mean. 

 

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The uncertainty is highlighted clearly by the next cluster charts (T192-T240):

Interestingly, little appetite for proper blocking over Greenland, plenty for blocking over scandi.  Trough to SE of UK seemingly in all of them, that’s good.  Anyone who thinks the modelling wrt UK cold isn’t improving needs to look at themselves!

thanks for these^

The ext EPS clusters plaster heights all over the NW/N and NE...

and there is only two +NAO'S (blue boxes) in there,...i will take that

 

[sebastiaan1973]

4 hours ago, Singularity said:

Tamara was right to caution yesterday that the models may be going too far with the duration of enhanced convection in the West Pacific - and hence the amount of effect on weather patterns in our vicinity.

I wonder, though, if the models are really seeing all that much influence. We're seeing the polar jet stream being modelled to regain some strength by next weekend after a pause later this week. That suggests AAM not rising much, if at all.

So, it could well be that there's a lot being thrown against the cold air close to our north and northeast.

...but that's not to say that a trough won't disrupt, with a low slipping down toward Central Europe, providing some of us with a notable snow event along the way.

Longer-term, it's unclear whether the West Pacific convection will remain influential enough to send AAM climbing significantly. I'd not bet on it myself but who knows - the oceanic component to the La Nina is expected to gradually ease off, after all. The disrupted polar vortex should help us to make something of whatever opportunities arise next month. We may not see a persistently cold month but the colder episodes could be at least as marked as they've been in January - maybe more so in the south.

Is the effect of the enhanced convection in the West Pacific within 7 days in the Atlantic ocean?