Model output discussion 24/01/21

[nick sussex]

Just now, Griff said:

I'm chuffed with this, this evening. All I could have hoped for. 

Nice to see. 

Yes . I know I was a bit stingy with my marks but I’m hard to please . I might continue with this Eurovision scoring system! . I’m superstitious so as we’ve had an encouraging evening I might need to continue . Perhaps the models are Eurovision fans and are desperate to score douze points across the board! 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Is ECM out to wind us up in the SE corner or what

No panic .....the models are coming to terms with lots going on ..... day 10 ec is summer in the med ! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

The uppers actually go up between day 9 and 10 in the south on the ECM

Yes day 11,12,13 etc. would look lovely but they are as much use as Kojak's hairbrush.

Easterly looking more likely but exact placement, intensity and indeed whether it happens at all wont be resolved until at least the weekend. 

 

Aye, on that for us it's more of a Mediterranean wet fart! but interesting battle, great runs today

[Snowman.]

If I could place high pressure in the perfect place it would be between Iceland and Scandi.

Exactly like the D10 ECM OP.

[Allseasons-Si]

The jma is heading in the right direction as well at 192 and would go on to produce what the other model are showing.

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

You jinxed it by giving Bournemouth nil points earlier.

 

[tight isobar]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Holy crap what an ecm!!and for us in the midlands thats 3 big snow events within 5 days!!

Your imby analysis are repetitive!

[Troubleatmill]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup cold air undercutting from north east and low dew pooints!!!

These low dew points Sheikhy? Not sold on it yet mate but it will swop and change

[Weather Boy]

30 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Not for the southern half...

Obviously that chart won't verify precisely, and furthermore it's a snapshot, but if it did, I'd say you'd have a cold continental flow for all NE of a line from the Solent to South Wales.

[Cold Winter Night]

9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Massive strides forward tonight - ECM, GEM, GFS and GFSP for 240hrs.  There's a lot of similarities there to whet the appetite!

     

Absolutely nothing 'nailed' yet though, but I'd rather see this than not.  

I agree. Yes, it's still a long way out at day 10, and they all have their differences,

but they all have those heights to our NW-NE, the low heights in N-America and in Siberia/Ural, and that persistent Arctic High.
All these ingredients we need for a good cold spell and they are there.
I think it is not unlikely that heights over Europe will drop as the Scandi/Iceland High develops and advects cold. Improvements certainly possible.

If these charts verify, I think it's only the beginning, not the best of the cold spell yet.

Now we need the EPS to join the rest and hope it's not all gone when the 0z's come out.

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No panic .....the models are coming to terms with lots going on ..... day 10 ec is summer in the med ! 

Great warm air can hold so much more moisture. So that'll be fab when it meets the cold air in place over the UK and has to dump it as snow.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Beano said:

These low dew points Sheikhy? Not sold on it yet mate but it will swop and change

Hmm do seem a bit high there!!thought they would be lower!!synoptics seem perfect for snow though so gota question the chart above

[Mark wheeler]

These are the results from the Navgem jury .  3 Points it’s crud later on .

[TSNWK]

Genuine question! Why do the overnight runs 9 times out of 10 fail to deliver and then like today we recover for coldies. 

I've lost count of times over the years I've woken to poor overnights..

 

[MJB]

15 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

The uppers actually go up between day 9 and 10 in the south on the ECM

Yes day 11,12,13 etc. would look lovely but they are as much use as Kojak's hairbrush.

Easterly looking more likely but exact placement, intensity and indeed whether it happens at all wont be resolved until at least the weekend. 

 

Do they ?

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmm do seem a bit high there!!thought they would be lower!!synoptics seem perfect for snow though so gota question the chart above

need a southward shift to be ideal for Saturday's low

[Griff]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Genuine question! Why do the overnight runs 9 times out of 10 fail to deliver and then like today we recover for coldies. 

I've lost count of times over the years I've woken to poor overnights..

 

Go to bed late, sleep in, and wake up for the 06z onwards? Problem solved? 

[Troubleatmill]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hmm do seem a bit high there!!thought they would be lower!!synoptics seem perfect for snow though so gota question the chart above

Maybe , I think the big thing for you guys in the Midlands would be getting the cold air in place first before the front arrives. Hope it does...none for me either way but I'm chuffed just to see it can still snow in this country anywhere!

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Do they ?

 

Yep - Day 9 are -1 widely across southern counties.

Day 10 is still -1 in the south west but has risen to 0C or +1 across central southern England and the south east

[Richard Fisher]

19 minutes ago, IDO said:

Nothing south of Birmingham on this run TBH, at least at sea-level to d10:

  d9>

d9 very diffused and quite messy for any confidence, but the synoptic pattern for around then fits in with the trend of recent runs, a wedge around Iceland, Arctic high helping and undercutting of the Atlantic? So just have to see if it can all fit together by T0? Potential IMBY at d10!

 

Yes very poor ECM for Midlands south cold rain. Can someone explain why the borderline between snow or rain seems to be consistently modelled to change to snow around the midlands north?

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Beano said:

These low dew points Sheikhy? Not sold on it yet mate but it will swop and change

No that’s clearly not based on ECM 12z which definitely would be snowy across fairly extensive area.

 

[Sweatyman]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Genuine question! Why do the overnight runs 9 times out of 10 fail to deliver and then like today we recover for coldies. 

I've lost count of times over the years I've woken to poor overnights..

 

I've asked a million times. Nobody can tell me!

[WINTRY WALES]

3 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Yes very poor ECM for Midlands south cold rain. Can someone explain why the borderline between snow or rain seems to be consistently modelled to change to snow around the midlands north?

Do we think it’s a done deal for midlands south to see no snow at the weekend?!

[MJB]

21 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Yep - Day 9 are -1 widely across southern counties.

Day 10 is still -1 in the south west but has risen to 0C or +1 across central southern England and the south east

Oh come off it , you are nitpicking there 

D9

D10

I am Central Southern England and its gone from -2 to -4 

D9

D10

You are detracting from the main theme of the 12z ECM and that's cold from the East

Edited January 27, 2021 by MJB

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

I've asked a million times. Nobody can tell me!

I think any differences between outputs can be greater with certain synoptics. 

There is a variety of data that goes into each model cycle , at different times you might get a fall off in one  area with a bit less data , there’s also a lack of observational data in the ne Pacific and the Arctic particularly from that side . This has been noted by NOAA .

This is particularly relevant when you’re dealing with an Arctic high.