Model output discussion 24/01/21

[JamesL]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Thank you 

 

right over my house lol 

[nick sussex]

Waiting for the ECM to come out , tension building ! Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results !

[That ECM]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Waiting for the ECM to come out , tension building ! Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results !

Bournemouth nil snow depth

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Waiting for the ECM to come out , tension building ! Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results !

Hopefully the UK won’t fare as badly on this ECM run as we do in the song contest though.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Just a question on the GEM, is it true that's it's second only to the ECM of late?

It appears to be at day 6:

However, there is nothing statistically significant between GEM and UKMO and both GFS runs.  And day 8 or 10 it looks unimpressive.  That’s a snapshot, but generally it tends to come in 3rd place behind ECM and UKMO since its upgrade.

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Waiting for the ECM to come out , tension building ! Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results !

At least we can predict the points for the U.K (Nil points)  
The ecm will be on the money tonight sliding the low Sunday and cold in earlier next Thursday. High not as blown up as the GEM and Para but still enough to deflect the Atlantic se and drag in -8 uppers nationwide (I hope)

[StormyLincs]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Waiting for the ECM to come out , tension building ! Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results !

I just hope the models are finally ‘making their minds up’ 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Waiting for the ECM to come out , tension building ! Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results !

We'll here is the ECM day 9 chart as the 00z saw it. Some change required and it will have to countdown. 

[Man With Beard]

GEFS mean Scandi High is growing at D11. Clear easterly mean flow for UK - always significant to get easterly flow on GEFS at long range (it prefers resetting to seasonal norms I find)

For balance, the SH doesn't stick around.

 

[Singularity]

To be honest, I don't think as much of the ECM deterministic at the moment as I usually do. It's fared little better than the other models at resolving the trough disruption - maybe a day ahead?

So I won't be too concerned if it's progressive / northward with the polar jet in the 6-10 day range - but here's hoping it isn't anyway, as I'd like to see this forum stay in a happier mood.

The adjustments so far today by GFS, GFS(P) and UKMO remind me of 'the good old days' (by my standard...) of the winters between late 2007 and early 2011, when we so often observed the models making substantial corrections toward slower, more disrupted troughs as they better resolved various forcing working in favour of a weaker, wavier polar jet stream.

Back then, ECM was unquestionably king at sorting out the disruptions first - but on the flipside, it sometimes proved over-eager. Most notoriously.. 'that ECM'.

[northwestsnow]

GEFS are a stonker !!

 

[Snowman.]

Cobra runs galore in the GEFS. Some that would put 2018 BFTE to shame.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS are a stonker !!

 

I haven't looked at the individuals yet but the mean at 312 has Greenland in it's sight's compared to Scandi from this morning.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Cobra runs galore in the GEFS. Some that would put 2018 BFTE to shame.

 

Yes they are great!

Some proper old skool Feb synoptic in there...

Feels like its crunch time for winter ...

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Surprised not much was said about Saturday on UKMO definitely presents a snow risk further south. 

Tricky one this. There's potential for a big snow event if intensity is high. For some reason I'm less confident about this one, but it absolutely could be newsworthy

[Decemberof2010]

From a NH perspective some would come close to 2010.

 

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes they are great!

Some proper old skool Feb synoptic in there...

Feels like its crunch time for winter ...

It's impressive the flip from raging SW'lies to strong blocking across the north in just 2 days.

[AFCBSNOW]

25 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Bournemouth nil snow depth

As if we expect anything else!

[Griff]

Looks like ecm is a bit more amplified, perhaps it's caught up? 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Looks like ecm is a bit more amplified, perhaps it's caught up? 

Not as good as ukmo but still really good!!low is further north as well so potential for snow further north on ecm!!

[Battleground Snow]

ECM has a big snow event on Saturday 10cm plus in some areas

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks okay for snow? if ppn makes it up here

[Snowman.]

The low here extending through the channel is very interesting, it keeps winds coming from the continent rather than it wraping round the low keeping things colder, possibly cold enough that it keeps things on the right side of marginailty here. I'm sure @Tim Bland will post later.

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Snowman.

[Snowman.]

Sliddeeeee

[sheikhy]

Sliding at 96 hours aswell!!!you just feel this could be inbetween ukmo and gfs!!