Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Griff]

As I said, playing catch up with gem and parallel etc

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Was just thinking that! not sure I like this EC, wanted another snow sunday? what about Sat? that looks far enough N/E

Edited as above...a second push of the Atlantic means it spreads east on Monday. Re sat... looks wrong side of marginal at the moment so it’s just rain, probably Only a Degree or so off snow though, so could change if cold air undercuts enough 

[chris55]

Sunday is looking very interesting with the leading front, could well be a period of snow for many. May well turn back to rain, but at day 5, and with the current trends, id hold back on any firm forecasts for now. 

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 144,...

the trough disrupted SE.

Looks like the low is heading north east still though

Edited January 26, 2021 by Tim Bland

[ICE COLD]

T192 ECM yesterday’s v today’s 12z T168 . Quite the difference. 

Edit sorry that’s the 00z 192 for comparison but it’s still very different 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by ICE COLD

[nick sussex]

At day 7 too much energy in that troughing so no trough disruption this time but I’m sure the drama has some way to go . Much depends now whether the ECM decides to build on that day 5 and develop more trough disruption because this has a domino effect moving forward. 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T192 ECM yesterday’s v today’s 12z T168 . Quite the difference. 

Clearly well into FI

[That ECM]

Not the same clearly but both hinting at heights north. Encouraging.

[ICE COLD]

Heights building to the north . 
 

ECM 192 

[Cloud 10]

ECM 120hrs.

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

It's all about getting those heights/wedges to the north with the Atlantic heights about to go up too,...the ECM at 192!!!

[nick sussex]

Fasten your seat belts folks ! Looks like we’re on another rollercoaster ride.  The ECM has a similar pattern to the GFS.

[Troubleatmill]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Heights building to the north . 
 

ECM 192 

At t192 there is surely no way that trough to our west NW can move NE with the polar high big brother backing up our small area of HP? It has to move east or SE allowing further Pressure to build to our north NE

Edited January 26, 2021 by Beano

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Fasten your seat belts folks ! Looks like we’re on another rollercoaster ride.  The ECM has a similar pattern to the GFS.

Tomorrow's ecm will look closer to today's gem

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, Beano said:

At t192 there is surely no way that trough to our west NW can move NE with the polar high big brother backing up our small area of HP? It has to move east or SE allowing further Pressure to build to our north NE

Good call it slides at 216

[Griff]

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets please on the next frame? 1 run too early perhaps? 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Griff

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

At day 7 too much energy in that troughing so no trough disruption this time but I’m sure the drama has some way to go . Much depends now whether the ECM decides to build on that day 5 and develop more trough disruption because this has a domino effect moving forward. 

Every chance it will Nick, yesterday’s 0z was dire but looked wrong as I posted. It’s improving all the time...

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

Just now, Griff said:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets please on the next frame? 1 run to early perhaps? 

We could do with a better clearance of shortwave energy west of Iceland , phasing could be an issue with that low running east out of Canada .

[Purga]

Getting better

Not perfect but better than 0z

Northern blocking as mentioned by UKMO becoming evident

Edited January 26, 2021 by Purga

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets please on the next frame? 1 run too early perhaps? 

Yes, think it’s a case of ... Day 11 has potential !!

[Griff]

Full of Eastern promise (that was Turkish delight I think?) 

 

[sebastiaan1973]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Full of Eastern promise (that was Turkish delight I think?) 

 

Seems to me that cyclone will stay there for Norway. So no easterly for NW-Europe.

[winterof79]

I will save some quotes, eastern promise etc

Rubbish and wet i would use

 

 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Seems to me that cyclone will stay there for Norway. So no easterly for NW-Europe.

You might want to review the other models as the ECM is just starting to trend towards them, or am I missing something? Been some interesting 12z runs, you should check them out

[Cold Winter Night]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Every chance it will Nick, yesterday’s 0z was dire but looked wrong as I posted. It’s improving all the time...

 

BFTP

I agree. The common thing among the 12z's is: more heights to the North/Northwest. And that is an improvement for coldies.

I think spending much time discussing details and differences post +168h is a bit silly at the moment, with so many changes between runs and models.