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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Look at the 850's dive-bomb into Feb,this has been signposted over the last few days now...

    ens_image.thumb.png.40eee30c3ca0819d3352a94f75fae744.png

    a look at the day ten EPS(i don't know if this has already bean posted) but that looks a lot different to previous with that Azores high being pushed further S/SW

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.579bc280a54a7f62429019c44a0fc91e.png

    that Ural blocking is starting to show up on the day ten EPS clusters too.

    the op and control in cluster 1.

    20210122235443-0c173ecca0bb8e4d4e498414bfb96951cd9edd60.thumb.png.d264c67f7c53b80fd7731d055d58904b.png

     

     

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    54 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

    Interesting ICON much further SW for sunday. Intrigued from an IMBY who will out 

    Screenshot_20210122-225803_Chrome.jpg

    I'll take that thanking you!

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, some dreamy members in there with some proper non marginal dumpings.

    This evenings perturbation prizewinner:

    image.thumb.png.7f419899aced5e70d64daff228fc0e15.png
    Marginal uppers...

    image.thumb.png.c4277657cbc46b8bd09d556569d0f58c.png

    In Guernsey! 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, some dreamy members in there with some proper non marginal dumpings.

    Aye, but will it snow?!

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales

    Nice runs tonight. See you in the morning for a return to regular scheduled programming....or maybe not, this time🙏

    Edited by andy989
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (3).png

    Yep,...those are the easterly cobra's☺️

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, JeffC said:

    Aye, but will it snow?!

    Just about!

    image.thumb.png.0aa8bb79508ff02042ef5ee7ef1dfadf.png

    image.thumb.png.219807b12ffb8fda5b6cb092974f2a35.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (3).png

    Haha there she is lol.

    feb am I right in saying this is our first mean Easterly from a +BL this winter, we’ve had some cracking means but generally all from the north. Definitely one of the collectors items I’ve been looking for as we start counting this down

    image.thumb.png.d49ebc5b927daa5854ee7c521212489d.png
     Grim to think it’s still even 5-6 days from even coming into view on the UKMO. So many twists and turns to come and hurdles to cross, even after that point. 
    Still , The good Mr Hammond was clearly seeing this continental feed and right now it’s becoming more and more likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Look at the mean...

    out to 324,...astonishing😮

    gensnh-31-1-324.thumb.png.6f8caef08eec490664380e5c21dcb33b.pnggensnh-31-0-324.thumb.png.c760a022016190d3e4adf878fb275b03.pnggensnh-31-5-324.thumb.png.66312cb8374e7e6c6de8ba180f01fc4f.png

    590578175_ens_image(1).thumb.png.a2b46c44087ab5dc5fc0c3e472994252.png

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Is anyone else starting to see potential similarities between this winter and 1985/86?  December 1985 was very mild at 6.3C, so much milder than December 2020, but did feature a cold snap between Christmas and New Year with snow for some, similar to 2020.  It also looks like January 2021 will likely have a similar CET to January 1986, too and now February looks like it could be cold also.  I don't remember any snow in January that year, but February was a different story!  I wonder how the two winters compare with background signals?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

    Haha there she is lol.

    feb am I right in saying this is our first mean Easterly from a +BL this winter, we’ve had some cracking means but generally all from the north. Definitely one of the collectors items I’ve been looking for as we start counting this down

    image.thumb.png.d49ebc5b927daa5854ee7c521212489d.png
     Grim to think it’s still even 5-6 days from even coming into view on the UKMO. So many twists and turns to come and hurdles to cross, even after that point. 
    Still , The good Mr Hammond was clearly seeing this continental feed and right now it’s becoming more and more likely.

    Its the first if your excluding ones where the vast majority of members were too marginal!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (3).png

    Nice! Many ensembles going towards -10c and the elusive 2 going to -15 🤫

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Lets hope the good runs this evening are maintained on the 00Z's and we are not brought down with a bump!  However, bound to be lots of twists and turns in the models during the days ahead no matter what the end result is!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    6 minutes ago, Don said:

    Is anyone else starting to see potential similarities between this winter and 1985/86?  December 1985 was very mild at 6.3C, so much milder than December 2020, but did feature a cold snap between Christmas and New Year with snow for some, similar to 2020.  It also looks like January 2021 will likely have a similar CET to January 1986, too and now February looks like it could be cold also.  I don't remember any snow in January that year, but February was a different story!  I wonder how the two winters compare with background signals?

    Winter 2008/09 is another shout. Cold end to Dec 08 and into Jan 09, it was quite cold for about a week. CET of Jan 09 could come very close to Jan 21. Start of February was also very interesting. Don't forget Winter 08/09 was a teaser for another interesting winter 😉😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The cfsv2 keeps on churning those good charts for Feb

    last five funs from yesterday's 00z to this morning's 00z.

    cfsnh-3-2-2021.thumb.png.f41f84d87b35b0c1a98632da5e97cf58.png1011406243_cfsnh-3-2-2021(3).thumb.png.15f3e9fe92d45c963175f85df6fc8751.png2033871632_cfsnh-3-2-2021(2).thumb.png.c74b9f91d73ed7b2290bb574e59f8800.png154177947_cfsnh-3-2-2021(1).thumb.png.1d2902fec136d8323527effda62cf9b5.png1211549206_cfsnh-3-2-2021(4).thumb.png.c9298696d5420595abc0e6cd6f23e8f1.png

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    7 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    Winter 2008/09 is another shout. Cold end to Dec 08 and into Jan 09, it was quite cold for about a week. CET of Jan 09 could come very close to Jan 21. Start of February was also very interesting. Don't forget Winter 08/09 was a teaser for another interesting winter 😉😉

    Yes, 2008/09 is another one which has been fairly similar so far, although December 2008 was a lot colder than 2020 at 3.5C.  I thought that after the coldish winter of 2008/09, normal business would resume in 2009/10!  Hmm........

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS ensembles have taken a real hit on the 18Z! Hoping this is a step in the right direction. 

    692821086_ens_image(5).thumb.png.205f0191e64ef9d0b127cb986d45edff.png      65617611_ens_image(6).thumb.png.7c06e5d12d610b753348bf638c02d82b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Just about!

    image.thumb.png.0aa8bb79508ff02042ef5ee7ef1dfadf.png

    image.thumb.png.219807b12ffb8fda5b6cb092974f2a35.png

    I suppose it'll do......

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Here come the easterlies in the ensembles. Trend or one off.

    Need to look out for a big upgrade in the De Bilt ensembles. 

    If the easterly signal strengthens in the next couple of runs - that will be good - that how all good easterlies have been modelled in the era of models being in the public domain.

    Wouldn't be completed surprised if the signal gained some traction, fell apart and then came back stronger for a few days later. Seen that happen multiple times. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

    Here come the easterlies in the ensembles. Trend or one off.

    Need to look out for a big upgrade in the De Bilt ensembles. 

    If the easterly signal strengthens in the next couple of runs - that will be good - that how all good easterlies have been modelled in the era of models being in the public domain.

    Wouldn't be completed surprised if the signal gained some traction, fell apart and then came back stronger for a few days later. Seen that happen multiple times. 

    Yes but this is assuming we get an easterly from what I can see from a lot of the output currently a Greenland/Iceland high is a more common trend overall. Take the ECM and GFS OP runs this afternoon for example. 

    With only the extremely cold members within the GFS being easterly which are only a few of them. Maybe it will trend the other way but I think if we don't get the lows to trend favourably around Day 7/8 and begin to sink then I think the chances are that the Greenland route is slightly more favoured around Day 12/13 like shown on the ECM we instead end up with a wedge and then an Atlantic Ridge. 

    Maybe we'll get a retrogression to Scandi from Greenland or vice versa it's an interesting situation. Personally for me I think both Easterly's and Northerly's are good I've done well off both here. 

    Certainly a trend cooler throughout the EPS would be a good trend to have. 

    Edited by Summerstorm
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