Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Drifter]

17 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Day 10 anyone? Easterly into East/SE at yep day ten, uppers not cold at this stage but one to watch on ECM

That’s clearly 5 minutes away from toppling and south westerlies resuming. 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

That’s clearly 5 minutes away from toppling and south westerlies resuming. 

Lucky that low to the west only has a 50% chance of being close to that track come day 10 and tbh, it’s likely it won’t exist anyway. 
 

this eps suite could be wrong but it fits with the ec46 theme so there is some substance to the potential for wintry conditions to establish as we head through the first week of feb 

[Weather-history]

Something has happened in the 0z ECM ensembles.

Manchester 2m yesterday's 12z ensembles had it favouring average to mild from the 27th January into early February

Now the 0z's are favouring below average at the start of February

 

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Mat just posted signs of an easterly extended ens.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z..for sure, early Feb has piqued my interest considerably with a colder trend from the mean and some cracking perturbations..the much hyped ssw may yet bear fruit for coldies!    ️  

Edited January 22, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mulzy]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Lucky that low to the west only has a 50% chance of being close to that track come day 10 and tbh, it’s likely it won’t exist anyway. 
 

this eps suite could be wrong but it fits with the ec46 theme so there is some substance to the potential for wintry conditions to establish as we head through the first week of feb 

Yes, the extended EPS significantly colder than last night’s run.

Clusters could be fun viewing!

[Snowman.]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Something has happened in the 0z ECM ensembles.

Manchester 2m yesterday's 12z ensembles had it favouring average to mild from the 27th January into early February

Now the 0z's are favouring below average at the start of February

 

 

Wind direction says a lot there, good shift to an Easterly direction.

Encouraging signs. 

EDIT: Scandi got there before I did.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Snowman.

[Tim Bland]

ECM has chances of snow tomorrow, Sun and Mon now...

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM has chances of snow tomorrow, Sun and Mon now...

I’ve the confidence in the eps having an Easterly  at day 12 than those being right !

Edited January 22, 2021 by bluearmy

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ve the confidence in the eps having an Easterly  at day 12 than those being right !

Haha come on Blue..the extended EPS have shown as many fantastic sets at day 12 as the ECM has shown snow charts for the south.  During December it was always “extended EPS look positive tonight” it was almost as predictable as me posting the ECM snow charts

[Anthony Burden]

Something brewing this morning in the models GEM showing Scandinavian high at 216 hrs

ECM ensembles downwards,met office hints all signs post’s East.

[Griff]

9 hours ago, Uncertainy said:

Thinking of throwing in the cold towel for this winter?

- Clear signs of convection moving into the western pacific

- Weakening La Niña signal 

- The best set of ensembles for favourable Northern blocking in the day 10+ range for quite some time, building upon a very blocked week 3 EC46

- This 18z might not get there, but It looks like it’s toying with the idea of Scandi heights. I have a feeling quite a few runs will get there in the near future.

The continued weak vortex state leaves blocking patterns open to development, we just need a trigger. Hopefully this mjo wave upgrades higher towards the 6/7 phase space over the coming days. If it does, combined with what looks like another technical reversal, then that’s a very good position to be entering February with, regardless of the disappointment this fascinating, generally blocked winter has brought to many so far.

Lets be honest, if we had that mjo forecast combined with an upcoming strat reversal in a winter that had seen little blocking up to this point then this forum would be a lot busier. Unfortunately, the mode bias of this winter thus far has been to downgrade great charts for U.K. cold at day 8-9 so it’s understandable that things are quite tonight (present company excluding the excellent @Griff). For me, the background signals are better now than they have ever been. I’ve been stung so may times even just this year by blocking fails that I’m not going to get excited by this but objectively, Scandi heights at day 10-12 seems a logical progression. 

Its a real shame the parallel’s gone all inconsistent with its data release as it was quite consistently showing heights over Scandi. 

Let’s see where we are by the end of the weekend... snow chances for some, North and South in the meantime. 

 

 

9 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Perhaps milder next week but gradually colder towards next weekend Griff..Cold air is lurking to the NE...And I have a graph here from M Ventrice of a very possible warming of the strat next week...yet more aggro for the models to deal with..I think I nicked the chart from your twitter page

Ps...I don't understand why all the big hitters on here were talking about front loaded winter for... I said all along it would be a backended one..come show your appreciation by following me on Twitter.. only joking folks I will drive you nuts.

The parallel should have been released behind an age verification check, clearly the biggest tease since Friday nights on Channel 5, when it first came on air... But that's another story... 

Looks like it's well and truly stopped now. Whether that's because it's ready to go live as the operational or as others have been suggesting, it needs more TLC before a full rollout? 

Clearly a lot of anticipation on wx Social, pros and amateurs alike. Are we getting ahead of ourselves? Who can blame us? 

I read a comment yesterday on this thread that most of the UK hasn't seen wintry weather yet. I suspect by area, a great percentage of the land mass has seen winter compared to average, the point is the population density is skewed to the south east of England, so perceptions might be warped?

Jff

Benson (Oxfordshire) UK climate averages

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Benson UK climate averages

My local station happens to be Benson, so might be an oddity... So these are England and Wales averages (sorry Scotland). 

February is often cold! 

 

[Sweatyman]

The latest fax charts for Sunday are so different to any other model. Just grazing the south coast! Any thoughts it'll change or that'll be it?

[Vikos]

This EC ENS is like the mother of outlier

 

[DJ Fart]

4 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

The latest fax charts for Sunday are so different to any other model. Just grazing the south coast! Any thoughts it'll change or that'll be it?

I put more faith in the fax charts than anything the models churn out.

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z Ensemble mean

 

Both sets of ensembles from ECM 0z and GFS 0z suggest a colder evolution as we start Feb ( after a 4 / 5 days milder period )

This ties in rather well with what the Met O are saying in the longer term outlook. Northerly winds perhaps into Feb ? or even a Scandi High perhaps ?

.....and in the very short term ( and not to be forgotten ) snow opportunities Fri to Tue for many too.

GFS 0z ensembles ( below )

Edited January 22, 2021 by Jeremy Shockey

[IDO]

It has been a very consistent modelling period with solid x-model agreement with regards to the long-wave mean NH pattern and at d10 that remains, all having the key features:

 

ecm>gfs>gem means at d10^^^

There are subtle difference for the UK within that synoptic mean, notably the gem is the flatter and the gem op looks a 100% total synoptic outlier. Looking like 5 cooler days followed by 4 milder days here in London:

 d13>

Then either a return to slightly below average or colder still. The gefs at d13^^^are interesting and offer some hope for week 2 changes in Feb? Hard to make much out of the clustering but maybe an Atlantic ridge cluster? Best to keep to about d10 as that seems to have strong mean agreement (the ops at d10 have been a mess, ecm pretty bad and gem having some difficulties, gfsP MIA so none of that height-biased curve-balls).

The eps signal for an easterly looks more like the UK in a trough with a feed from a low from the E/NE? But those members with the clusters can clarify on that. I certainly do not see in that range a BFTE or Scandi high.

Whether we can get an extended severe snowy period remains lower than I hoped, as the strat imprint has not really worked for the south. So my expectations are further wintry spells favouring the north.

[Purga]

BFTE from PARA.

Not the first time and not unsupported...

[Battleground Snow]

22 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

I put more faith in the fax charts than anything the models churn out.

Latest icon keeps it further north, interesting difference compared to the fax chart at a relatively short range

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Latest icon keeps it further north, interesting difference compared to the fax chart at a relatively short range

Still got the snow swinging in fron west to east on sunday?!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

BFTE from PARA.

Not the first time and not unsupported...

Oooo, thanks for sharing this, forgot to check wetterzentrale. Good to see the signal has remained and is now counting down.

[O'Maille80]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Oooo, thanks for sharing this, forgot to check wetterzentrale. Good to see the signal has remained and is now counting down.

That's chart is a day old. Para has stopped running.

[sheikhy]

32 minutes ago, Vikos said:

This EC ENS is like the mother of outlier

 

Wow an outlier from day 6!!!!!could we see better disruption on day 5 and 6 this evening from ecm?!!

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, O'Maille80 said:

That's chart is a day old. Para has stopped running.

Oww yeah, not awake yet properly. Thanks for pointing that out.

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Still got the snow swinging in fron west to east on sunday?!

Yes it makes it all the way to East Anglia,