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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    FI back to 72/96 at the moment.

     

    So true!

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The weather event in the north west is a sign that 850hpa temps don't matter all that much. We're currently getting around 5-10cm as of now, and it wasn't forecast to snow at all today. Goes to show how hard it is to pinpoint where and when it will snow in the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    16 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    I'm taking huge positives from this. Look at the state of the Vortex! It's all over the place, like BJ's hair!

    Just a shame about the ECM 12z but since when has anything been straightforward?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    13 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    The weather event in the north west is a sign that 850hpa temps don't matter all that much. We're currently getting around 5-10cm as of now, and it wasn't forecast to snow at all today. Goes to show how hard it is to pinpoint where and when it will snow in the UK.

    That's just not true. 

    The North West are benefiting from evaporative cooling. 

    If the precipitation was not so intense it would rain, which is what we're expecting in Ireland despite having colder upper air.

    When the precipitation moves away, it will melt very quickly. 

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    21 minutes ago, IDO said:

    I said a little while ago I would be shocked if the para takes over next month. My shock is even more shocking seeing its current output! 

    I went back 10-days to see how it fairs against the soon to be junked gfs; these were their predictions...

    para>1974137374_gfseu-0-252(1).thumb.png.19f814a10dd7423758e04a16c668dd98.pnggfs>1111553955_gfseu-0-252(2).thumb.png.ac70f354cbc4b749ec3ca238ad7def3a.png

    ...and the reality>gfseu-0-6.thumb.png.950529f9d0c76f6be152dfd0372115b5.png

    Shocking! It may have just been random bad luck it was so wrong at d10 for now, but it seems that when it predicts heights it has a greater propensity to be wrong and vice versa! It will be a feast of d10 charts on the scale ecm could never serve up, a gourmet meal every winter evening around 7pm. I cannot wait!

    Do we assume that the other three gfs runs that day were with a greeny ridge and the para ones were not - wouldn’t be right to pick the worst example so will assume that you didn’t .......

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    That's just not true. 

    The North West are benefiting from evaporative cooling. 

    If the precipitation was not so intense it would rain, which is what we're expecting in Ireland despite having colder upper air.

    When the precipitation moves away, it will melt very quickly. 

    But it wasn’t forecast and they have 5-10cm so it’s happened with not particularly low 850’s. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    That's just not true. 

    The North West are benefiting from evaporative cooling. 

    If the precipitation was not so intense it would rain, which is what we're expecting in Ireland despite having colder upper air.

    So if the precipitation is heavy for evaporative cooling to give 5-10cm, the 850s aren't ALWAYS that important... even though they offer more of a increased risk of snow. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    That's just not true. 

    The North West are benefiting from evaporative cooling. 

    If the precipitation was not so intense it would rain, which is what we're expecting in Ireland despite having colder upper air.

    When the precipitation moves away, it will melt very quickly. 

    Precipitation has been light here in west yorks and all of snow for the last hour n half. Temp fell to 2.7 but was told 850s were a little too high lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    GEFS are interesting tonight. Currently out to day 11 but a grouping move the Iberian high west just far enough to get cold air into the UK or very close to it. Being back end of Jan now and without a feed of warm air up from the Med the air by this time will be genuinely cold with low dew points. Nothing to get excited about at this stage but maybe just a small hint of some eastern promise?

     

    Edit: Most don't quite make it, but pick of the GEFS is ensemble 2 which develops a decent easterly. Not a full on 5* easterly but certainly worthy of 4*. As always with the colder charts it doesn't look all that dramatic but dig down into the background data and you see snow, -12c 850s, fairly table Scandi based heights. 

    Edited by Jason M
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    Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
    9 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Lol snow starved they don't know the meaning of the word a mate in salford has been sending me endless snow pics since mid December.

    Come across the water you'll know what snow starved is😆

    Point taken. Hope you get a pasteing soon too. Hope we all do and we all might before this winters over. Amazing synoptics this year. Just ordered my first weather station because of it. I've enjoyed watching this winter pan out so much. Not yet for severe cold perhaps, but it's a strange winter so far just like the snow for the NW tonight, so I'm ordering salt.

    Is there a full weather nerd badge available to order? cap?

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    That's just not true. 

    The North West are benefiting from evaporative cooling. 

    If the precipitation was not so intense it would rain, which is what we're expecting in Ireland despite having colder upper air.

    When the precipitation moves away, it will melt very quickly. 

    Not only that, lack of wind is a big factor also. 

    All that said  looking at the output, we are making the best out of the situation and the air is looking quite chilly, just no real deep cold sadly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    A few more scandi options in the ensembles, probably won't come to anything

    gensnh-2-1-324.png

    gensnh-16-1-324.png

    gensnh-19-1-324.png

    gensnh-20-1-324.png

    gensnh-27-1-324.png

    gensnh-24-1-324.png

    gensnh-29-1-324.png

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (27).jpeg

    So why post them if they will come to nothing. 

    Stick to Fax I say. Best possibility ever instead of days ahead charts showing potential of Narnia snow potential but we all know they are like a wet fart in a milk bottle. Also thanks though for sharing I know your drift BS.👍🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
    28 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    So why post them if they will come to nothing.

    Because this is the model discussion thread and he said probably.

    Is there any need?

    We will all keep discussing all the model outputs.

    It all starts somewhere.

    Pert 2/20 for me.

    gensnh-2-1-324.png.e0b75b11922990ec64d6c

    gensnh-24-1-324.png.096c21eedc0ade12fa9a

    Edited by icykev
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Nothing inspiring regarding deep cold air getting into the UK in the near future, frustrating winter carrys on, transient snow likely to continue away from the Northern hills

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    The GFS op doesn't hold any interest for coldies until past 300.

    Good to see para bring back the Scandi option at 300 after dropping it for one run

    Gem at 240 is what we want. Strong Scandi high by day 10

    Early Feb still showing signs of a cold spell, but it's a long way out atm.

    Re the GEFS from last night 20% of them showing a scandi high isn't bad at that range thinking about it.

     

    gfsnh-0-324 (2).png

    gfsnh-0-300 (5).png

    gemnh-0-240 (2).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
    53 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Big snow event at 324 on the para, Atlantic grinds to a halt against the strengthening high.

    By 342, the beast is well and truly unleashed.

     

    gfsnh-0-324 (4).png

    gfsnh-0-342 (4).png

    gfsnh-1-342 (1).png

    A beast in february is pretty much what i'm hoping, anticipating,,,,,,fingers crossed,

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    somewhere between the Davis strait and nW Russia  we are going to see a notable upper ridge or wedge thrown up within the week 2 period. 

    that’s not such a big envelope ............. 

    That’s sarcasm 

    I think we’ve expectedly found another donkey but the tail could go anywhere 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

     

    With regards the 0z runs, they are absolutely awful,  probably the worst of the Winter with a Euro trash high at t+144 across the model suits and nothing in the extended ops to get excited about.

     

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Unnecessary comment removed
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

     

    With regards the 0z runs, they are absolutely awful,  probably the worst of the Winter with a Euro trash high at t+144 across the model suits and nothing in the extended ops to get excited about.

     

    Agree, hevent even seen any thing transient! The best chart for potential I can see from the mainstream models this morning is ... +24!...... and even that leads to SW's 5 days later!

     

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Comment in quote box removed
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    41 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

     

    With regards the 0z runs, they are absolutely awful,  probably the worst of the Winter with a Euro trash high at t+144 across the model suits and nothing in the extended ops to get excited about.

     

    Finally a bit of realism....little wedge here, minuscule height rise there, day 10 again etc. There isn’t anything decent on the cards until we get into February now I’m afraid.  People will just have to be patient.

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Comment in quote box removed
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