Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

There's some rather sexy snow spikes showing on the London GEFS

image.thumb.png.282b287cf01d6d08ece70915e66654d8.png

 

I think the Mods ought to censor this type of thing.

Look at the ones for Manchester at a shorter timeframe, its nonsense data, i have a 0% chance of seeing a single flake.

image.thumb.png.a102b65a4b3e95776809013b336f7748.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Interesting period i think coming up folks..Matt H pointed out some of the big temp contrasts of the 500 and 850 temp gradients and how we could have quite a rash of activity building in the Irish Sea later this week..And according to those ECM graphs snow is possible in many places into next week..gonna need a couple of days to probably not nail it down but double sided sticky pad it down.

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_39_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_45_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_88_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_162_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_168_18_108.png

M4 Snowshield  in full effect there guys

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the ones for Manchester at a shorter timeframe, its nonsense data, i have a 0% chance of seeing a single flake.

image.thumb.png.a102b65a4b3e95776809013b336f7748.png

haha we will be lucky to get a cm over here 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Interesting period i think coming up folks..Matt H pointed out some of the big temp contrasts of the 500 and 850 temp gradients and how we could have quite a rash of activity building in the Irish Sea later this week..And according to those ECM graphs snow is possible in many places into next week..gonna need a couple of days to probably not nail it down but double sided sticky pad it down.

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_39_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_45_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_88_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_162_18_108.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_168_18_108.png

M4 Snowshield  in full effect there guys

Bit more than the M4  just as well those charts are about as useful as using a sieve to empty a bath 

Edited by MJB
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, MJB said:

Bit more than the M4  just as well those charts are about as useful as using a sieve to empty a bath 

I did say double sided sticky pads! The main point of my post was could be quite a bit of convection from the Irish Sea.But yeh precipitation graphics beyond 3 days are pretty poor.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I did say double sided sticky pads! The main point of my post was could be quite a bit of convection from the Irish Sea.But yeh precipitation graphics beyond 3 days are pretty poor.

Just stating Matt that nothing is nailed on image.thumb.png.3c35f2a74ce9373ecd79b4ae11ac9b27.pngbut I totally agree that tonights temperature drop will probably fire off some lively showers, maybe with thundersnow too.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny

Past D10 The GFS 6z, followed the 0z by showing the tendency to move the Iberian heights back West.  Would be good to see that continue, and come inside D10, (for all those that don’t like Iberian heights).

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What a stonking set of GEFS 06Z ensembles!

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

WHERE'S MY SNOW! WHERE'S MY SNOW!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Can we just discuss the model output in here please. There are various other threads to discuss the variety of other topics which have come up in here in the last 20 minutes. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

MJO update:

Not a bad place for it to get stuck and loop!

Nearly every ensemble makes it into 6 or 7 on the ECM.

GEFS gets there too, but a bit slower.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full (3).gif

combphase_noCFSfull (2).gif

Better than other phases of course but it's barely out the COD and very low amplitude.

Now, the jet has been struggling all WInter anyway and maybe this will further impair any recovery but I remain sceptical of any MJO assistance for now.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Better than other phases of course but it's barely out the COD and very low amplitude.

Now, the jet has been struggling all WInter anyway and maybe this will further impair any recovery but I remain sceptical of any MJO assistance for now.

I'm cautious, but it may just give us the opportunity to allow weak blocking in our locale for once, also the warming should stop the Atlantic from marching in.

 

gfsnh-10-228.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The ssw was the 5th 

It’s now two weeks later 

generally ssw after effects are felt in the toprop two to three weeks later away from any areas which see a quick response. Thereafter downwelling waves come every few weeks for a period. Again, no certainties about how that manifests itself in the trop 

we saw the reversal head down quickly into the trop and the effects were to sustain the already neg AO.  This has led to a long fetch easterly from the urals to the nw Atlantic ...... 

so yes, no affect on U.K. weather but many opportunities over the next six weeks or so should show 

Exactly.

@sebastiaan1973 posted the Domeisen article that contains the downwelling graph below.

In the second picture, I took the European blocking type and edited a bit, looking at just the layers closer to the surface and adding the timeline we are on this year.

Note: This is NOT a forecast, it is just the effects of previous SSW of the same general category overlaid with this year's dates.

As you can see, we are probably just getting started with the impact of the SSW, if it behaves at least somewhat similar to this general picture. And February might be promising, so it is not a surprise to see the output improve around the turn of the month.

 

wcd-1-373-2020-f03-web.png.e0fd3ddb1e91e8c01e6069219a34fa86.png

SSW-Impact_20jan.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
12 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Exactly.

@sebastiaan1973 posted the Domeisen article that contains the downwelling graph below.

In the second picture, I took the European blocking type and edited a bit, looking at just the layers closer to the surface and adding the timeline we are on this year.

Note: This is NOT a forecast, it is just the effects of previous SSW of the same general category overlaid with this year's dates.

As you can see, we are probably just getting started with the impact of the SSW, if it behaves at least somewhat similar to this general picture. And February might be promising, so it is not a surprise to see the output improve around the turn of the month.

 

wcd-1-373-2020-f03-web.png.e0fd3ddb1e91e8c01e6069219a34fa86.png

SSW-Impact_20jan.png

Exactly this, no guarantees, and echoes what the pros have been saying, not just now in reference to this particular event but whenever they discuss SSWs in general. Simon Lee went to lengths recently to discuss how it favours improved outcomes in terms of probability of increased cold. It was quite amusing as he used pizza as an analogy, needless to say everyone wants a slice, you have a better chance than usual, but might still end up hungry... Clear?

TLDR you have to be patient. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
48 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Exactly.

@sebastiaan1973 posted the Domeisen article that contains the downwelling graph below.

In the second picture, I took the European blocking type and edited a bit, looking at just the layers closer to the surface and adding the timeline we are on this year.

Note: This is NOT a forecast, it is just the effects of previous SSW of the same general category overlaid with this year's dates.

As you can see, we are probably just getting started with the impact of the SSW, if it behaves at least somewhat similar to this general picture. And February might be promising, so it is not a surprise to see the output improve around the turn of the month.

 

wcd-1-373-2020-f03-web.png.e0fd3ddb1e91e8c01e6069219a34fa86.png

SSW-Impact_20jan.png

interesting, that suggests a greenland block assists or even causes a ssw

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Looks almost certain it will be mild in the final days of January and possibly trending colder in Feb. The cold interlude this week where -7 850hpa temps are showing up aren't rly being translated on the ground, looks about average temp wise. Fair to say this January had so much potential, just didn't come off in the way we wanted. Now it's February's time to shine!

 

t.thumb.png.831c0ea7db827f5d3959208cb9f1a49e.png

 

Saturday 23rd January:

GFSOPEU06_66_1.thumb.png.03bc99198a1e045efcf993de94c03a86.png GFSOPEU06_66_2.thumb.png.ad984cef12fb389ab5474782e057406e.png

Tuesday 26th January:

GFSOPEU06_144_1.thumb.png.9f5c07bd1596cdac0eb1f783506a393d.pngGFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.520aed720205fd11df46133f51be75f5.png

notice the pressure over Greenland 

Edited by Frigid
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

What a stonking set of GEFS 06Z ensembles!

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

WHERE'S MY SNOW! WHERE'S MY SNOW!

 

Sorry, stonking in terms of what? Stonkingly average? Serious question just wondering what I am missing

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, ptow said:

 

Sorry, stonking in terms of what? Stonkingly average? Serious question just wondering what I am missing

Stonkingly crap!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Mmm someone's getting pasted

image.thumb.png.7b9752684994634a8376867646f0a43d.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Belfast
  • Location: Belfast
39 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon is quite active with the front that moves in Saturday night. Few cms widely I would imagine with it coming in after dark.

Edit: added the icon EU charts for corresponding timeframe. Snow falling v snow depth

 

icon-2-84.png

icon-2-87.png

icon-2-90.png

iconeu_uk1-46-93-0.png

iconeu_uk1-45-96-0.png

I’ve noticed a few different times that there seems to be a Great Wall that stops the precipitation from carrying over Ireland and stops at coasts, is this an error within the models or due to some weather phenomena I’m not familiar with? Thanks in advance

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...