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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Purga said:

    There's some rather sexy snow spikes showing on the London GEFS 😍

    image.thumb.png.282b287cf01d6d08ece70915e66654d8.png

     

    I think the Mods ought to censor this type of thing. 😁

    Look at the ones for Manchester at a shorter timeframe, its nonsense data, i have a 0% chance of seeing a single flake.

    image.thumb.png.a102b65a4b3e95776809013b336f7748.png

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Look at the ones for Manchester at a shorter timeframe, its nonsense data, i have a 0% chance of seeing a single flake.

    image.thumb.png.a102b65a4b3e95776809013b336f7748.png

    Zero chance 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Interesting period i think coming up folks..Matt H pointed out some of the big temp contrasts of the 500 and 850 temp gradients and how we could have quite a rash of activity building in the Irish Sea later this week..And according to those ECM graphs snow is possible in many places into next week..gonna need a couple of days to probably not nail it down😉 but double sided sticky pad it down.

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_39_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_45_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_88_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_162_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_168_18_108.png

    M4 Snowshield  in full effect there guys 🤣

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Look at the ones for Manchester at a shorter timeframe, its nonsense data, i have a 0% chance of seeing a single flake.

    image.thumb.png.a102b65a4b3e95776809013b336f7748.png

    haha we will be lucky to get a cm over here 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Interesting period i think coming up folks..Matt H pointed out some of the big temp contrasts of the 500 and 850 temp gradients and how we could have quite a rash of activity building in the Irish Sea later this week..And according to those ECM graphs snow is possible in many places into next week..gonna need a couple of days to probably not nail it down😉 but double sided sticky pad it down.

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_39_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_45_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_88_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_162_18_108.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021012000_168_18_108.png

    M4 Snowshield  in full effect there guys 🤣

    Bit more than the M4  just as well those charts are about as useful as using a sieve to empty a bath 

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, MJB said:

    Bit more than the M4  just as well those charts are about as useful as using a sieve to empty a bath 

    I did say double sided sticky pads! The main point of my post was could be quite a bit of convection from the Irish Sea.But yeh precipitation graphics beyond 3 days are pretty poor.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    What is your point, i know how bad the rain is as i can see it, i am talking about snow???

    Did you not press play on the tweet?

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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I did say double sided sticky pads! The main point of my post was could be quite a bit of convection from the Irish Sea.But yeh precipitation graphics beyond 3 days are pretty poor.

    Just stating Matt that nothing is nailed on image.thumb.png.3c35f2a74ce9373ecd79b4ae11ac9b27.pngbut I totally agree that tonights temperature drop will probably fire off some lively showers, maybe with thundersnow too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny

    Past D10 The GFS 6z, followed the 0z by showing the tendency to move the Iberian heights back West.  Would be good to see that continue, and come inside D10, (for all those that don’t like Iberian heights).

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    What a stonking set of GEFS 06Z ensembles!👋

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    WHERE'S MY SNOW! WHERE'S MY SNOW!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Can we just discuss the model output in here please. There are various other threads to discuss the variety of other topics which have come up in here in the last 20 minutes. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    MJO update:

    Not a bad place for it to get stuck and loop!

    Nearly every ensemble makes it into 6 or 7 on the ECM.

    GEFS gets there too, but a bit slower.

    ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full (3).gif

    combphase_noCFSfull (2).gif

    Better than other phases of course but it's barely out the COD and very low amplitude.

    Now, the jet has been struggling all WInter anyway and maybe this will further impair any recovery but I remain sceptical of any MJO assistance for now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Better than other phases of course but it's barely out the COD and very low amplitude.

    Now, the jet has been struggling all WInter anyway and maybe this will further impair any recovery but I remain sceptical of any MJO assistance for now.

    I'm cautious, but it may just give us the opportunity to allow weak blocking in our locale for once, also the warming should stop the Atlantic from marching in.

     

    gfsnh-10-228.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    The ssw was the 5th 

    It’s now two weeks later 

    generally ssw after effects are felt in the toprop two to three weeks later away from any areas which see a quick response. Thereafter downwelling waves come every few weeks for a period. Again, no certainties about how that manifests itself in the trop 

    we saw the reversal head down quickly into the trop and the effects were to sustain the already neg AO.  This has led to a long fetch easterly from the urals to the nw Atlantic ...... 

    so yes, no affect on U.K. weather but many opportunities over the next six weeks or so should show 

    Exactly.

    @sebastiaan1973 posted the Domeisen article that contains the downwelling graph below.

    In the second picture, I took the European blocking type and edited a bit, looking at just the layers closer to the surface and adding the timeline we are on this year.

    Note: This is NOT a forecast, it is just the effects of previous SSW of the same general category overlaid with this year's dates.

    As you can see, we are probably just getting started with the impact of the SSW, if it behaves at least somewhat similar to this general picture. And February might be promising, so it is not a surprise to see the output improve around the turn of the month.

     

    wcd-1-373-2020-f03-web.png.e0fd3ddb1e91e8c01e6069219a34fa86.png

    SSW-Impact_20jan.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    12 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Exactly.

    @sebastiaan1973 posted the Domeisen article that contains the downwelling graph below.

    In the second picture, I took the European blocking type and edited a bit, looking at just the layers closer to the surface and adding the timeline we are on this year.

    Note: This is NOT a forecast, it is just the effects of previous SSW of the same general category overlaid with this year's dates.

    As you can see, we are probably just getting started with the impact of the SSW, if it behaves at least somewhat similar to this general picture. And February might be promising, so it is not a surprise to see the output improve around the turn of the month.

     

    wcd-1-373-2020-f03-web.png.e0fd3ddb1e91e8c01e6069219a34fa86.png

    SSW-Impact_20jan.png

    Exactly this, no guarantees, and echoes what the pros have been saying, not just now in reference to this particular event but whenever they discuss SSWs in general. Simon Lee went to lengths recently to discuss how it favours improved outcomes in terms of probability of increased cold. It was quite amusing as he used pizza as an analogy, needless to say everyone wants a slice, you have a better chance than usual, but might still end up hungry... Clear? 😜

    TLDR you have to be patient. 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    48 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Exactly.

    @sebastiaan1973 posted the Domeisen article that contains the downwelling graph below.

    In the second picture, I took the European blocking type and edited a bit, looking at just the layers closer to the surface and adding the timeline we are on this year.

    Note: This is NOT a forecast, it is just the effects of previous SSW of the same general category overlaid with this year's dates.

    As you can see, we are probably just getting started with the impact of the SSW, if it behaves at least somewhat similar to this general picture. And February might be promising, so it is not a surprise to see the output improve around the turn of the month.

     

    wcd-1-373-2020-f03-web.png.e0fd3ddb1e91e8c01e6069219a34fa86.png

    SSW-Impact_20jan.png

    interesting, that suggests a greenland block assists or even causes a ssw

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Looks almost certain it will be mild in the final days of January and possibly trending colder in Feb. The cold interlude this week where -7 850hpa temps are showing up aren't rly being translated on the ground, looks about average temp wise. Fair to say this January had so much potential, just didn't come off in the way we wanted. Now it's February's time to shine!

     

    t.thumb.png.831c0ea7db827f5d3959208cb9f1a49e.png

     

    Saturday 23rd January:

    GFSOPEU06_66_1.thumb.png.03bc99198a1e045efcf993de94c03a86.png GFSOPEU06_66_2.thumb.png.ad984cef12fb389ab5474782e057406e.png

    Tuesday 26th January:

    GFSOPEU06_144_1.thumb.png.9f5c07bd1596cdac0eb1f783506a393d.pngGFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.520aed720205fd11df46133f51be75f5.png

    notice the pressure over Greenland 👀

    Edited by Frigid
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    Posted
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    What a stonking set of GEFS 06Z ensembles!👋

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    WHERE'S MY SNOW! WHERE'S MY SNOW!😁

     

    Sorry, stonking in terms of what? Stonkingly average? Serious question just wondering what I am missing

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    17 minutes ago, ptow said:

     

    Sorry, stonking in terms of what? Stonkingly average? Serious question just wondering what I am missing

    Stonkingly crap!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Mmm someone's getting pasted

    image.thumb.png.7b9752684994634a8376867646f0a43d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    Mmm someone's getting pasted

    image.thumb.png.7b9752684994634a8376867646f0a43d.png

    Tasty!!!thats caught my eye for defo!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Belfast
  • Location: Belfast
    39 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Icon is quite active with the front that moves in Saturday night. Few cms widely I would imagine with it coming in after dark.

    Edit: added the icon EU charts for corresponding timeframe. Snow falling v snow depth

     

    icon-2-84.png

    icon-2-87.png

    icon-2-90.png

    iconeu_uk1-46-93-0.png

    iconeu_uk1-45-96-0.png

    I’ve noticed a few different times that there seems to be a Great Wall that stops the precipitation from carrying over Ireland and stops at coasts, is this an error within the models or due to some weather phenomena I’m not familiar with? Thanks in advance 😁😁

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