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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think the Atlantic may just win out on this run, would be a snowy battleground for some areas before it does, but it's good to see some consistency from the para.

 

gfsnh-0-264 (3).png

gfsnh-1-264 (2).png

 

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Para is the most cold weather loving model of this winter

GFSPARAEU06_270_2.png

Chances are it will still tease with narnia before the end of this run... Does it mean anything ?‍♂️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Chances are it will still tease with narnia before the end of this run... Does it mean anything ?‍♂️ 

Could be consistently wrong of course... It's a shame we can't see the MJO plot for the para run, I have a feeling it would be more amplified than the ECM and GEFS 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Could be consistently wrong of course... It's a shame we can't see the MJO plot for the para run, I have a feeling it would be more amplified than the ECM and GEFS 

As I said... 

gfsnh-0-300.png

gfsnh-1-300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

Be a nice start to Feb 

image.thumb.png.99fa1f293903e97adb3bb92dd43e3f94.png

image.thumb.png.af7559a05d66d5e6ec2b6ab78f5badff.png

You have to say this is a repeated theme from para , ..............if only 

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Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

GFSP for 2/2: image.png.a589c002bf6e74ddfa15321e0c0ca6   GFS for 2/2: h850t850eu.png

What could possibly go wrong!

Para looks marginal down the east coast

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

GFSP for 2/2: image.png.a589c002bf6e74ddfa15321e0c0ca6   GFS for 2/2: h850t850eu.png

What could possibly go wrong!

Lol

 

I think one of the greatest pictures I've ever seen from the models was not a million miles from that GFSP one in 2010 I think.... the greens and yellows in the Atlantic took the shape of a seagull flying west while looking back east... I think I can see it beginning to take shape there!  

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

It is rapidly turning into one of those winters where the fun is always 10 days away. 

Models seem to be favouring something cold long term which is nice but I honestly think anything post 72 is FI at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Griff said:

Yes, perfectly valid and fair post, and hopefully anyone reading the dozen or so previous posts will appreciate the tongue in cheek humour attached to them. 

However, despite us all being prone to confirmation bias (it's inherent in human nature), following the SSW and ongoing forcing on the stratosphere there are reasons to be looking for changes in FI

That doesn't mean that anyone here believes that this will happen. Nothing wrong with a glass half full

Totally agree, I am usually on here snow watching till April when I finally call it over

There is something out there as a possible for certain and I would take FI charts over some of the dead winters we have had in recent years anyday!

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
39 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.0712834a15f6e79ebb28ce1973b59d90.png

image.thumb.png.64673231a33fd2f492cceeb1ae41893f.png

image.thumb.png.d7d017b1cd3669d72b4e1e2668e8b748.png

Snow from the SW and into the East , be great to watch this play out ................JFF of course 

That would be end of Feb/march 2018 revisited ...only a month earlier.........FI i know!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

image.thumb.png.923bb5782e4a0dc44d79ec774d3b7c16.png

The Control is not without interest deep into FI

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Just now, throwoff said:

Totally agree, I am usually on here snow watching till April when I finally call it over

There is something out there as a possible for certain and I would take FI charts over some of the dead winters we have had in recent years anyday!

I think at least there has been hope this winter and a real sense of potential even if it hasn't materialized to the degree some of us want.  Of course in other years that's been the case as well, but it hasn't involved so much stretching of the imagination!

One thing I do get is a gut feel that next winter will be more along the lines of the special one we look for.  They always seem to follow a 'close.. but no cigar' winter such as this has so far been 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

Flicking through the GEFS at 312, and there isn't support for the para solution, maybe 1 or 2 come close. Wouldn't be too concerned by this as they are prone to flips at that range 

The para is an outside shot at the moment, but at least something to watch.

 

 

gensnh-27-1-312.png

gensnh-20-1-312 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, throwoff said:

There is something out there as a possible for certain...

That sums up weather-watching to a tee, mate!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
15 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I think at least there has been hope this winter and a real sense of potential even if it hasn't materialized to the degree some of us want.  Of course in other years that's been the case as well, but it hasn't involved so much stretching of the imagination!

One thing I do get is a gut feel that next winter will be more along the lines of the special one we look for.  They always seem to follow a 'close.. but no cigar' winter such as this has so far been 

Only problem being Tim is that somebody as been saying that since 2010...next year could be the one if me mom was a bloke she would be my dad if you get me drift. Para does look exciting at range for sure,look at day 12...very cold incoming with Low Pressure to the SW...its almost got that Feb 2018 feel about it. 

And I've just noticed a few of those snow symbols in the met app for my region in the days ahead.. what a tease you are Exeter.

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-1-294.png

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Sometimes, one has just to say

The trend is your friend

So, the trend is going the right way for coldies, outcome yet very diffuse regarding where H and L lay, but the trend is a rather colder end of January to a cold start of February. Not more, not less.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

There's some rather sexy snow spikes showing on the London GEFS

image.thumb.png.282b287cf01d6d08ece70915e66654d8.png

 

I think the Mods ought to censor this type of thing.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

GFS still showing a chance of heavy snow through the early hours of Sunday morning for quite a few places across the UK. Unsure whether it'll be accurate though.

GFSp really goes for it along the M4 corridor with up to 13cm for some! 

6648DAD3-85CE-4784-8B27-B136E6B8BC2E.gif

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