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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I think the Atlantic may just win out on this run, would be a snowy battleground for some areas before it does, but it's good to see some consistency from the para.

     

    gfsnh-0-264 (3).png

    gfsnh-1-264 (2).png

     

    1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Para is the most cold weather loving model of this winter 😂

    GFSPARAEU06_270_2.png

    Chances are it will still tease with narnia before the end of this run... Does it mean anything 🤷‍♂️ 

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFS op, fi not cold yet but lower in to Europe? Don't @ me just for fun... 

    gfsnh-0-324.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

     

    Chances are it will still tease with narnia before the end of this run... Does it mean anything 🤷‍♂️ 

    Could be consistently wrong of course... It's a shame we can't see the MJO plot for the para run, I have a feeling it would be more amplified than the ECM and GEFS 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Could be consistently wrong of course... It's a shame we can't see the MJO plot for the para run, I have a feeling it would be more amplified than the ECM and GEFS 

    As I said... 

    gfsnh-0-300.png

    gfsnh-1-300.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    Be a nice start to Feb 

    image.thumb.png.99fa1f293903e97adb3bb92dd43e3f94.png

    image.thumb.png.af7559a05d66d5e6ec2b6ab78f5badff.png

    You have to say this is a repeated theme from para , ..............if only 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
    19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    GFSP for 2/2: image.png.a589c002bf6e74ddfa15321e0c0ca6   GFS for 2/2: h850t850eu.png

    What could possibly go wrong!😁

    Para looks marginal down the east coast 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    GFSP for 2/2: image.png.a589c002bf6e74ddfa15321e0c0ca6   GFS for 2/2: h850t850eu.png

    What could possibly go wrong!😁

    Lol

     

    I think one of the greatest pictures I've ever seen from the models was not a million miles from that GFSP one in 2010 I think.... the greens and yellows in the Atlantic took the shape of a seagull flying west while looking back east... I think I can see it beginning to take shape there!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    It is rapidly turning into one of those winters where the fun is always 10 days away. 

    Models seem to be favouring something cold long term which is nice but I honestly think anything post 72 is FI at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
    Just now, Griff said:

    Yes, perfectly valid and fair post, and hopefully anyone reading the dozen or so previous posts will appreciate the tongue in cheek humour attached to them. 

    However, despite us all being prone to confirmation bias (it's inherent in human nature), following the SSW and ongoing forcing on the stratosphere there are reasons to be looking for changes in FI

    That doesn't mean that anyone here believes that this will happen. Nothing wrong with a glass half full 👍

    Totally agree, I am usually on here snow watching till April when I finally call it over 😄

    There is something out there as a possible for certain and I would take FI charts over some of the dead winters we have had in recent years anyday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    39 minutes ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.0712834a15f6e79ebb28ce1973b59d90.png

    image.thumb.png.64673231a33fd2f492cceeb1ae41893f.png

    image.thumb.png.d7d017b1cd3669d72b4e1e2668e8b748.png

    Snow from the SW and into the East , be great to watch this play out ................JFF of course 

    That would be end of Feb/march 2018 revisited ...only a month earlier.........FI i know!

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.923bb5782e4a0dc44d79ec774d3b7c16.png

    The Control is not without interest deep into FI

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    Just now, throwoff said:

    Totally agree, I am usually on here snow watching till April when I finally call it over 😄

    There is something out there as a possible for certain and I would take FI charts over some of the dead winters we have had in recent years anyday!

    I think at least there has been hope this winter and a real sense of potential even if it hasn't materialized to the degree some of us want.  Of course in other years that's been the case as well, but it hasn't involved so much stretching of the imagination!

    One thing I do get is a gut feel that next winter will be more along the lines of the special one we look for.  They always seem to follow a 'close.. but no cigar' winter such as this has so far been 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Flicking through the GEFS at 312, and there isn't support for the para solution, maybe 1 or 2 come close. Wouldn't be too concerned by this as they are prone to flips at that range 

    The para is an outside shot at the moment, but at least something to watch.

     

     

    gensnh-27-1-312.png

    gensnh-20-1-312 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    18 minutes ago, throwoff said:

    There is something out there as a possible for certain...

    That sums up weather-watching to a tee, mate!👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    15 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    I think at least there has been hope this winter and a real sense of potential even if it hasn't materialized to the degree some of us want.  Of course in other years that's been the case as well, but it hasn't involved so much stretching of the imagination!

    One thing I do get is a gut feel that next winter will be more along the lines of the special one we look for.  They always seem to follow a 'close.. but no cigar' winter such as this has so far been 

    Only problem being Tim is that somebody as been saying that since 2010...next year could be the one🤣 if me mom was a bloke she would be my dad if you get me drift.😉 Para does look exciting at range for sure,look at day 12...very cold incoming with Low Pressure to the SW...its almost got that Feb 2018 feel about it. 

    And I've just noticed a few of those snow symbols in the met app for my region in the days ahead.. what a tease you are Exeter.

    gfs-0-300.png

    gfs-1-294.png

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Sometimes, one has just to say

    The trend is your friend

    So, the trend is going the right way for coldies, outcome yet very diffuse regarding where H and L lay, but the trend is a rather colder end of January to a cold start of February. Not more, not less.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

    GFS still showing a chance of heavy snow through the early hours of Sunday morning for quite a few places across the UK. Unsure whether it'll be accurate though.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    There's some rather sexy snow spikes showing on the London GEFS 😍

    image.thumb.png.282b287cf01d6d08ece70915e66654d8.png

     

    I think the Mods ought to censor this type of thing. 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    GFS still showing a chance of heavy snow through the early hours of Sunday morning for quite a few places across the UK. Unsure whether it'll be accurate though.

    GFSp really goes for it along the M4 corridor with up to 13cm for some! 

    6648DAD3-85CE-4784-8B27-B136E6B8BC2E.gif

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