Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Tim Bland]

Almost certain the pivot point is Stevenage

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Don said:

Looks to quite close to the Metoffice forecast tomorrow.

MetO also said (app data) no snow for me at all tomorrow,

BBC says heavy snow and light snow most of the day,

now MetO say light snow most of the afternoon

radar watching and window watching it is

[Griff]

// more exciting than GFS op, there's a surprise... 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come on griff ramp it up son.

[TallPaul]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

No, will be a case of radar watching and looking out the window, or if you're silly like me, agree to go for a walk at 6.30am and look up at the sky lol!

Alarm is set for 3am...why do i put myself through this...when i know here on the south coast (Plymouth) I'll be waking up to cold rain...??? I'll never learn....

Great input all...thank you, I'm taking it all in...love this forum, great characters, great posts, and forever learning from you all - thank you

[Don]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

MetO also said (app data) no snow for me at all tomorrow,

BBC says heavy snow and light snow most of the day,

now MetO say light snow most of the afternoon

radar watching and window watching it is

Yep, just like the good old days when we had no access to data.  We would wake up in the morning, draw the curtains and 'oh look it's snowing!'

[Griff]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Come on griff ramp it up son.

[Don]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Come on griff ramp it up son.

Oh no, not more stress of another potential snow event?!  Bring back the PV of doom lol!! 

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

HARMONIE 18z take:

Radar check about 10pm:

Not bad, and there is more significant precipitation to the south of that band than the north, so the onward evolution looks consistent to me.

Apologies to northerners for so much imby tonight but, hey, this might the one shot at glory for some southerners this winter *

Tomorrow's snow is a serious nowcasts. That front is doing many things as we speak that many short range models have not picked up on. ECM I believe is closest so far, amazing really as it's been very consistent for 4 days.

*I don't believe it will be the last chance. Early Feb has the feel of being a classic. Just my interpretation of where the models are going

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

// more exciting than GFS op, there's a surprise... 

We could be arguing over the sweet spot again this time next week ..

[Griff]

FYI gfsp fairly consistent up to 180, going to conserve energy for looking out the window tomorrow and go to bed now, but in any case I suspect the Atlantic will still 'follow through' on this run

[Updated_Weather]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Yep, just like the good old days when we had no access to data.  We would wake up in the morning, draw the curtains and 'oh look it's snowing!'

Would prefer that tbh!

remember having a few surprise snow falls when I was at school,

that always made it exciting.

fingers crossed some of us get some snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

FYI gfsp fairly consistent up to 180, going to conserve energy for looking out the window tomorrow and go to bed now, but in any case I suspect the Atlantic will still 'follow through' on this run

Great stuff mate...if this snow comes off tomorrow I may be following through myself Enjoy if you can folks and I'm sure another bite of the cherry is fast approaching..

[Ruzzi]

12 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I think if we were going to get a beast from the east type scenario in February the models would be firming up on it by now.  Still we don't need a beast from the east to get snowy weather. A case in point is the 5cm I had tonight from an Atlantic trough. I think February will be quite snowy at time due to systems sliding under wedges of High Pressure , but no deep cold.

The 1st of February is still NINE days away, not to mention the other 28 days in February.... 

37 days in weather terms is a monumental amount of time for things to change.

A BFTE is still very much an option for February among many others ofcourse. 

But if you think the models would firm up just now for a BFTE that hit say in the middle of February (3 weeks time) (and days beyond the furthest forecast point of any of the mainstream models), then you need to take a step back and come back in a week's time and see the difference from the charts modelled today at day 7, and what actually transpires in 7 days time!.... Especially just now when there is such uncertainty about the progression of the pattern. FI is currently T72 - T96...... There is loads of winter left yet and time for anything to happen

[andy989]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Yep, just like the good old days when we had no access to data.  We would wake up in the morning, draw the curtains and 'oh look it's snowing!'

I miss that. The best one of them I can remember is Christmas day.....can't remember the year, early 2000's sometime, first white Christmas, and it was a proper suprise. 

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Would prefer that tbh!

remember having a few surprise snow falls when I was at school,

that always made it exciting.

fingers crossed some of us get some snow

Absolutely.  The surprise snowfall I remember clearly from childhood is February 1985.  It was a Saturday around the 8th/9th of the month and there had been heavy rain on the preceding Thursday and Friday with no sign of snow.  Weirdly I had a strange feeling that Friday (without viewing forecasts) we were soon to have lots of snow and when I woke up on the Saturday, there it was, thick snow!

Edited January 23, 2021 by Don

[Updated_Weather]

Marco (@Petagna) has just said - some of us across southern England and Wales see a winter wonderland tomorrow & the warnings *may* need escalation)

[Mike Poole]

Where’s this one going?  

GFS // T252

Answer, not where I thought it was at T282:

But you can’t really get to Scandi high from where we were without a ridge across the UK, let’s see if it happens...

Edited January 23, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Where’s this one going?  

GFS // T252

The OP gets better later in the run, I think the GFS runs are messing up the MJO forecast, they seem to try to recover out of the blue later into their runs, ukmo and ECM will interesting overnight

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Where’s this one going?  

GFS // T252

Nothing much for most of us I suspect. The reds and oranges are still over or near to Spain so that will really limit opportunities.

[Don]

19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

We could be arguing over the sweet spot again this time next week ..

Yeah, north innit!!

[Anthony Burden]

Looks like a good snow event finally arriving in the south great stuff.Longer term mild spell mid next week,

for how long debatable but 3 to 4 days looking on the cards,it’s after then that’s being carefully watched 

at the moment any body’s guess.

 

[Updated_Weather]

Could it be that ECM has this “snow potential track” correct?

also it seems the band is currently ahead of modelling schedule?

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Nothing much for most of us I suspect. The reds and oranges are still over or near to Spain so that will really limit opportunities.

you sure?

[steveinsussex]

8 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Marco (@Petagna) has just said - some of us across southern England and Wales see a winter wonderland tomorrow & the warnings *may* need escalation)

His idea of southern England is the midlands though!