Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Matt H]

I think we just need to be patient and hope that the signal for a cold easterly during February continues to gain support. 

I have noticed recently that the members that are usually the first dismiss any colder charts on the model runs beyond t144 as nothing but a ‘fantasy’ before relentlessly ridiculing people for sharing the charts from the cold model runs are always the same people to assume that every single mild chart shown on a model run is a nailed on certainty before then posting a series of comments to moan about the same milder runs as well and start off all the silly ‘winter is over’ posts. I appreciate that the UK is often unlucky with securing cold weather but posts like this are nothing more than a product of emotional posting and they’re very tedious to read. In truth no one knows where we will end up and everything is still on the table going forward.

I appreciate that this is such an obvious comment to make but it’s boring to continuously login to read the same people moaning after every single model run for one reason or another. It’s just weather and we can’t do anything about it no matter how much we moan. I’d love cold and wintry weather as much as anyone else in here but I’m not going to let it dictate my emotions, and nor should it for anyone else, especially at the moment with everything else going on.

Anyway, have a great day everyone.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Vikos]

11 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

I think we just need to be patient and hope that the signal for a cold easterly during February continues to gain support.

Very true!

I think it's a mashup from different things that are leading to huge frustrations as there is this damn Corona-Virus with its never-ending lockdowns and restrictions and the thing, that yet another winter in a yearlong row doesn't seem to deliver its goods and we are stuck in an endless und depressive autuum like weather, on top locked in in our homes, without our beloved pubs, sports and friends.

But GB is not alone, things in Germany are similar dark and resignation is spreading, in Covid or weather. Our MetO annouced today mild and rain for the next ten days. At least your vaccination goes better then ours, EU + Merkel sucked big time in makeing it possible to get vaccinated quick.

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Vikos

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hmmm..I've noticed some are giving in here...im surprised,last year maybe...this Year..not so sure.

Firstly La Nina maybe masking MJO signals, I emphasised the word May!! Its not sure.. So many seem to hang on these wonderful MJO and strat developments as gold dust,and without them we are doomed to failure.. not necessarily,we were in a good position Hemisphericaly prior to the warming! It may have ruined a promising pattern...it may not have.

Every warming is different so its very difficult to make judgements. I've noticed 2013 is being touted as in the fact it brought cold well into March! Well yes it did...but let's not forget the 2019 January event was possibly responsible for the record warmth we endured in February!! So know guarantee. But still plenty of scope to be hopeful for next month. If we are going to descend into colder conditions next month,then some of these ens are a starting point.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hmmm..I've noticed some are giving in here...im surprised,last year maybe...this Year..not so sure.

Firstly La Nina maybe masking MJO signals, I emphasised the word May!! Its not sure.. So many seem to hang on these wonderful MJO and strat developments as gold dust,and without them we are doomed to failure.. not necessarily,we were in a good position Hemisphericaly prior to the warming! It may have ruined a promising pattern...it may not have.

Every warming is different so its very difficult to make judgements. I've noticed 2013 is being touted as in the fact it brought cold well into March! Well yes it did...but let's not forget the 2019 January event was possibly responsible for the record warmth we endured in February!! So know guarantee. But still plenty of scope to be hopeful for next month. If we are going to descend into colder conditions next month,then some of these ens are a starting point.

You're absolutely right, Matt: despondency is futile: whereas, back in the Good Old Days, near-total ignorance set-in after about 48 hours, these days, it's likely nearer to 120 hours?

So, how can anyone write off an entire month/season based solely on one or two NWPM predictions? This time next month it might be 20C with blazing sunshine? But at the same time, it could be -5 with drifting snow?

Who knows? 

 

[SqueakheartLW]

Still some good charts showing up amongst GFS 06z and its ensembles and some are in the near future too

Dream Cold Fantasy GFS 06z Charts

The first two charts are very much in the close timeframe

Member 16 +60 hours

Member 29 +60 hours

A couple of cold outliers during our current colder spell see -10C uppers in the mix so more definite snow risk here with low pressure also dominating the scene too

Now for a selection from further away

Member 29 + 252 hours

After the initial cold Member 29 has a brief mild blip just before this colder spell sets up and peaks at +252 hours away. After this Member 29 then generally lifts back up to around average again

Member 3 +276 hours

This is where Member 3 gets cold and in general stays close to -10 uppers right to the very end so the start of a longer cold spell here

Member 14 +342 hours

A few chilly periods within Member 14 but this is the part where some real cold makes a brief appearance

Member 17 +354 hours

A generally average run within the collection but this is the start of what looks like is going to be a longer cold spell

Nightmarishly Mild GFS 06z Charts

Member 26 +198 hours

Member 28 +294 hours

GEM

Here is the GEM's 00z fantasy chart pick

GEM 00z Member 8 +276 hours

Look at that nice beasterly making its way into the UK with uppers below -10 at 850hpa

Follow this with the chart from hell

GEM 00z Member 11 +330 hours

Who wants to see +10 uppers over the UK in winter. I certainly don't. A total waste of winter when this happens. Save the +10 uppers for when we really want them in summer

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very late in the run, but maybe a weak MJO response on the OP.

It's a shame the para run has got stuck at 102.

 

This is the reason for the problems with the parallel run as shown on meteociel

30-day parallel test is temporarily stopped. Runs will be usually still available but with some missing.

[Froze were the Days]

55 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

The SSW happened, and it has not 'failed'; it is what it is . . . but Hypers Anonymous clearly have failed -- but then they usually do!

Yes!...and the 'hypers anonymous' are not frequenting the mod thread nowhere as near as a few weeks back, I think we know who they are.

As regards to the SSW to early to call it a failure in terms of trop response to blocking...but it is the UK and it does feel like a real strain to get decent cold to these shores over recent years (2018 aside but I think that episode has skewed our expectations somewhat).

[Methuselah]

So, here are the GEFS 06Z temp ensembles: a near-future marginal set-up (in that snowfall will depend on local conditions: T850s, dew points, proximity to windward coasts, altitude, windspeed -- as well as surface temps) followed by a mild spell... After that, it's anyone's guess?

    

Edited January 21, 2021 by General Cluster

[Battleground Snow]

Mjo update: 

Still on course to make it into 6/7 soon.

GEFS slightly more active than the ECM.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

 

I'm quite a stickler for keeping things in the right thread, but I think for anyone feeling down this is worth considering 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Isn’t that what fell last night

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Griff said:

I'm quite a stickler for keeping things in the right thread, but I think for anyone feeling down this is worth considering 

Is it second week of Feb now? Wasn’t it first week of feb last week I think we should start being realistic and just discuss next winter

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is it second week of Feb now? Wasn’t it first week of feb last week I think we should start being realistic and just discuss next winter

Messenger shooting belongs in the moan thread, but you'll be forgiven for posting GFS parallel fi charts later

[mushymanrob]

Am i the only one who doesnt rate the MJO influence? Is there any corrobrative evidence that the MJO is much of a player? What state was the MJO in when we have had previous Big Freezes?

Seems to me people are grasping at straws for some kind of confirmation of a favoured weather type is likely.

Currently, imho, there is no sign of any developing Easterly, not in the ops nor my favoured NOAA anomaly charts ................................. but then again there wasnt in January 24th 1985 whos synoptic pattern was very close to whats expected by Tuesday next week. And we all know how February 1985 turned out!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Messenger shooting belongs in the moan thread, but you'll be forgiven for posting GFS parallel fi charts later

But it's nae 'shooting the messenger', it's pointing-out the patently obvious!?

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Am i the only one who doesnt rate the MJO influence? Is there any corrobrative evidence that the MJO is much of a player? What state was the MJO in when we have had previous Big Freezes?

Seems to me people are grasping at straws for some kind of confirmation of a favoured weather type is likely.

Currently, imho, there is no sign of any developing Easterly, not in the ops nor my favoured NOAA anomaly charts ................................. but then again there wasnt in January 24th 1985 whos synoptic pattern was very close to whats expected by Tuesday next week. And we all know how February 1985 turned out!

The 2018 event sticks in my mind.

Can somebody link the historical plots, I can't find them?

[Badgers01]

18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Am i the only one who doesnt rate the MJO influence? Is there any corrobrative evidence that the MJO is much of a player? What state was the MJO in when we have had previous Big Freezes?

Seems to me people are grasping at straws for some kind of confirmation of a favoured weather type is likely.

Currently, imho, there is no sign of any developing Easterly, not in the ops nor my favoured NOAA anomaly charts ................................. but then again there wasnt in January 24th 1985 whos synoptic pattern was very close to whats expected by Tuesday next week. And we all know how February 1985 turned out!

Feb 85 ?

[Battleground Snow]

This is from the WMO.

so in answer to your question or rather statement @mushymanrob, there does appear to be *some* evidence

 

The cold event March 2013 coincided with the propagation of a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event into the western tropical Pacific. Studies (e.g. Cassou 2008, Lin et al, 2008) have shown that an active phase of the MJO over the western Pacific is conducive to negative NAO. Was this MJO event responsible for the cold event over Europe? To establish if there was a link between this MJO event and the cold March 2013, a composite of 2-metre temperature anomalies of the 10 ensemble member forecasts which predicted the strongest MJO event were compared to a composite of 2-metre temperature anomalies of the 10 ensemble member forecasts which predicted the weakest MJO for each individual forecast system (as for 2-metre temperature, MJO forecasts varied greatly between ensemble members). Results from the ECMWF model (Figure 3) and the NCEP model (figure 4) suggest that there was a strong link between the MJO event and the cold anomaly over Europe, with the ensemble members with a strong MJO predicting 2-metre temperature anomaly patterns more consistent with observations than the ensemble members with a weak MJO. The ensemble forecasts from Environment Canada showed the same link between good MJO forecasts and good 2-metre temperature forecasts 

 

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Feb 85 ?

www.trevorharley.com/1985.

Edited January 21, 2021 by MJB

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

www.trevorharley.com/1985.

feb 85 was a fairly unremarkable month not sure what the relevance for now is ??

[Badgers01]

5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

feb 85 was a fairly unremarkable month not sure what the relevance for now is ??

with a brief easterly mid month I guess that would do !

[MJB]

11 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

feb 85 was a fairly unremarkable month not sure what the relevance for now is ??

Sorry firmly disagree , if it was unremarkable , I would lower your expectations 

February. Overall, anticyclonic, dry, and cool (2.1C CET). The first week was mild. There was a very cold spell starting on the 7th, with heavy snow in the south on the 8th and 9th. Then strong easterly winds brought beneath-freezing temperatures. In some parts of the south from the 9-13th the highest temperature was -4C. In some parts of the country the temperature only climbed above freezing on the 19th. It was sunny at the end of the month.

Edited January 21, 2021 by MJB

[IDO]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

This is from the WMO.

so in answer to your question or rather statement @mushymanrob, there does appear to be *some* evidence

 

The cold event March 2013 coincided with the propagation of a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event into the western tropical Pacific. Studies (e.g. Cassou 2008, Lin et al, 2008) have shown that an active phase of the MJO over the western Pacific is conducive to negative NAO. Was this MJO event responsible for the cold event over Europe? To establish if there was a link between this MJO event and the cold March 2013, a composite of 2-metre temperature anomalies of the 10 ensemble member forecasts which predicted the strongest MJO event were compared to a composite of 2-metre temperature anomalies of the 10 ensemble member forecasts which predicted the weakest MJO for each individual forecast system (as for 2-metre temperature, MJO forecasts varied greatly between ensemble members). Results from the ECMWF model (Figure 3) and the NCEP model (figure 4) suggest that there was a strong link between the MJO event and the cold anomaly over Europe, with the ensemble members with a strong MJO predicting 2-metre temperature anomaly patterns more consistent with observations than the ensemble members with a weak MJO. The ensemble forecasts from Environment Canada showed the same link between good MJO forecasts and good 2-metre temperature forecasts 

 

Was that not an ENSO neutral year? The whole issue with the forecast MJO, is whether it is a phantom anomaly, more like the La Nina spiking again as it will do and has done this winter? It is at its peak ATM but likely to power down slowly in the next few weeks and be neutral by Spring?

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

Was that not an ENSO neutral year? The whole issue with the forecast MJO, is whether it is a phantom anomaly, more like the La Nina spiking again as it will do and has done this winter? It is at its peak ATM but likely to power down slowly in the next few weeks and be neutral by Spring?

It was very weak la Nina around -0.4, when the MJO passed through West Pacific.

Interestingly the 2018 event was an moderate Nina that weakened, it also featured a SSWE

@IDO , maybe we are both correct on this. The moderate la Nina has interfered with the MJO so far, but now it's weakening, the MJO may be able to progress easier

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Battleground Snow