February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[moorlander]

2.8c and 150mm 

[Stargazer]

Oops, a bit late! 3.7 and 114mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

CET extremes for February (1772-2020) and 1981-2010, 1991-2020 means

____________________________________________________________

DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1981-2010 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET 

01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.4 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956)
02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.2 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956)
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... .. 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ...10.8 (1923) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956)
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956)
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ... 11.4 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830)

06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.9 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830)
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.3 (1994) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830)
08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 9.6 (1994) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816)*... ... ... ... .. 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.4 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.8 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.4 (1895)

21 Feb ... 11.2 (2019) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855) 
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.3 (1855&1895) 

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.1 (1855&1895&1947)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947)

29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 6.9 (1872) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956)

*(1895 was -7.4 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3).

_________________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means (in that order for each day)

01 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 06 __ 4.9 _ 4.5 ____ 11 __ 4.5 _ 4.4 ____ 16 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 21 __ 5.3 _ 4.7 ____ 26 __ 5.7 _ 4.9

02 __ 4.3 _ 4.4 ____ 07 __ 4.4 _ 4.5 ____ 12 __ 5.0 _ 4.5 ____ 17 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 22 __ 5.3 _ 4.7 ____ 27 __ 5.5 _ 4.9

03 __ 4.3 _ 4.3 ____ 08 __ 4.2 _ 4.5 ____ 13 __ 4.8 _ 4.5 ____ 18 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 23 __ 5.6 _ 4.7 ____ 28 __ 4.9 _ 4.9*

04 __ 4.3 _ 4.3 ____ 09 __ 4.1 _ 4.4 ____ 14 __ 4.3 _ 4.5 ____ 19 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 24 __ 5.8 _ 4.8 ____ 29 __ 5.4 _ 4.9*

05 __ 4.8 _ 4.4 ____ 10 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 15 __ 5.1 _ 4.5 ____ 20 __ 5.0 _ 4.7 ____ 25 __ 5.4 _ 4.8

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

* technical note: these are not the running means for only those years ending on 28th or that were leap years,

they are the same value (end of February running mean, regardless of number of days in month). 

The mean of the eight leap years in the period (1992,96,2000,04,08,12,16,20) was actually 5.00

The mean of the other 22 Febs was 4.86. The mean of all thirty was 4.90. 

If the 22 years that were not leap years used their 1st March values, the average for 29th Feb would be 5.0. 

====================================================================================

 

One other note that was left out of the opening post but should have appeared there, 

defending champs for February from 2020 contest are

CET _ DAVID SNOW

EWP _ prolongedSnowLover

 

[Summer Sun]

3.2c to the 1st

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 3.2c on the 1st
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Projections and probabilities for February

 

At the moment, we have 86.3% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 6.5C before corrections.

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 27%
Above average (>4.9C) is 36%
Below average (<3.9C) is 37% 

[Summer Sun]

4.3c to the 2nd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 4.3c on the 2nd
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What’s the chances of the winter overall finishing below average now ?

[Roger J Smith]

To finish below the 1981-2010 average would require 5.4 or lower. To beat 1991-2020 would need 6.4 or lower. If we get that cold spell of the model thread, then those would appear difficult to nearly impossible to reach; without the cold spell, probably a 50-50 chance for being colder than 1981-2010, more like one in four to end up colder than 1991-2020 average. 

The 1961-90 averages used by the metoffice come to 4.07 (4.6, 3.8, 3.8) or using the two-decimal values they use in their own work, the average then also comes to 4.13 ... to tie that will require Feb to finish 4.1 C, nowadays 0.6 below most recent 30-yr average. That one is by no means guaranteed yet. 

Finally, to tie the ultra-long-term average which is 3.7 for all CET years, would require a Feb value of 3.0 C. That is of course quite possible if we get that cold spell. It would be a coup to break that tougher challenge, the last winter to break an average of 3.7 was 2010-2011 (3.1), the third in a row to break 3.7 ... 2012-13 finished on 3.8. 

For this to be the coldest winter ever (1683-84, -1.17) would require Feb to average -11.7, to be colder than 1962-63 (-0.33) would require -9.2, and to be colder than 2009-10 (2.43) would require -0.9 (that one at least in the realm of possibility). 

For this to be the mildest winter ever (1868-69 was 6.77) would require 12.3 C, the highest rank this winter can achieve by breaking the Feb record by 0.1 (then with 8.0) would be to tie 42nd warmest 2016-17. 

If let's say this Feb has an average of 1.8 then the average will be 3.3 which ranks t128 coldest (of 361 at this point or 362 after this winter is entered, winter 1658-59 is not ranked due to missing Dec). The metoffice ranking table for seasonal values shows ranks for coldest on left and warmest on right but the warmest are calibrated to include so-far unposted 2021 seasons spring to autumn, and winter 2020-21 and in that case will still be one too high since winter will always be showing one fewer value to rank at the end of any annual cycle. So if you ever use that table, be aware that a straight readout of the warm side of the ranking numbers has to be adjusted (by two for winters at present, and by one for the other seasons). The adjustment is -1 (or -2) which means any given readout uncorrected is one or two rank(s) less extreme than it appears. The cold rankings are all fine the way they appear now. 

 This is a link to that table: 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

If you want to investigate where other possible outcomes for Feb end up in the rankings, take 8.1 (the sum of Dec 5.0 and Jan 3.1) plus your selected Feb value, divide by 3, and you'll have your comparative value. If we ended up at -0.1 for example, the winter mean would then be 2.67 which shows up as four winters from 71st coldest to 74th coldest (but in reality all tied 71st coldest). 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 3rd

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.0c on the 3rd
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[summer blizzard]

Do we have any recent targets for the 10th and 15th to chase.

2012 aside I think we might be going pretty far back since the first halves of Feb 10, 13 and 18 were nothing special.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projections and probabilities

 

At the moment, we have 88.0% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 6.5C before corrections.

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 31% (two days ago it was 27%)
Above average (>4.9C) is to 27% (two days ago it was 36%)
Below average (<3.9C) is 42% (two days ago it was 37% )

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a factoid that won't be repeated very often later this month, but the 1991-2020 average for 1-3 Feb was 4.3, lower than 1981-2010 by 0.2 and equal to 1961-90. So in other words we are also 0.7 above the 1991-2020 value. 

First look at EWP ... the tracker seems to be running one day behind its usual pace, reporting 6 mm for 1st only, so I went to archives on meteociel to find 2nd and 3rd amounts (estimated) near 10 mm total, sitting then near 16 mm now, with 30-40 mm amounts indicated on average for next ten days, which would put the total around 50 mm by mid-month. As model scenarios for after the cold breakdown are all quite different, pure speculation as to what to add to that for part two of February, possibly quite a bit if the Atlantic reawakens.

Last point, in answer to targets for CET on 10th and 15th ... These are the coldest values both recently and longer term. I list the three coldest values in each category. 

 

Interval ______ Coldest since 1981 _______ Coldest since 1940 ________ Coldest since 1772

Feb 1-10 ____-1.7 1991_ -0.8 2012  -0.3 1986 __ -1.7 1991_-1.3 1963_ -1.2 1954___ -4.2 1895 -3.2 1917 -2.9 1841

Feb 1-15 ____-1.3 1991_ -0.8 1986 +0.2 2012 __ -1.3 1991_ -1.2 1947_ -0.8 1986___ -4.3 1895 -2.4 1855 -1.9 1917

___________________________

Some additional values that don't make top three in any time interval include these:

1956 was -0.3 at both 10th and 15th (the first three days were record cold then mild enough to remove it from top three).

1947 was only -0.9 after 10 days, showed up as second coldest by 15th (-1.2).

1942 had 0.7 after ten days and 0.8 after fifteen.

1963 was -0.7 after fifteen days.

2009 was 0.5 after ten days, then began to warm up.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Norrance]

Ooops. Forgot all about this. I suppose well too late but I would have gone for 1.5C

[Roger J Smith]

This may place the alleged cold spell upcoming in some context ... taking 7th to 11th as coldest five days likely, these are the coldest five day intervals that either hit that same five days or use at least three of them (so 5th to 9th then 6th to 10th, 8th to 12th and 9th to 13th also searched). This is the full list that went below -1.5 as an average for any of those five day intervals. Some values are added in brackets for continuity that would not qualify. If a year qualifies for more than one of the five-day intervals, the values are shown but the coldest of them is underlined. The order in the table is chronological, rank refers to coldest value only. To compare breakdowns, warmest CET value in the range of end of cold spell (within the interval below) to 16th Feb is shown. You'll notice the Atlantic returned fairly fast in 1773 and 1799 so it's not just us. (years with "cold to nnth" have all readings below 4.0 to date indicated)

=== <<< COLD 5-day INTERVALS of PAST CET DAILY YEARS 1772 to 2020 >>> ===

YEAR ___ rank ________ 5-9 Feb __ 6-10 Feb __ 7-11 Feb __ 8-12 Feb __ 9-13 Feb ___ milder CET to 15th

1773 ____ 18 ___________ -1.6 _____ (-1.4) ______ -1.9 _______ -1.6 _______ -1.7 _______ 8.2 15th

1784 ____ 13 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- _______ -2.3 _______ -2.3 _______ cold to 24th

1799 ____t11 ___________ -2.5 _____ -1.6 _______ ------ _______ ----- _______ ----- ________ 6.5 15th

1803 ____t16 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ -1.6 _______ -2.0 _______ ----- ________ 6.1 15th

1816 ____ 03 ___________ -1.6 _____ -3.1 _______ -3.8 _______ -4.4 _______ -3.4 ________ 4.2 16th

1841 ____ 09 ___________ -2.8 _____ -2.5 _______ ----- ________ ----- _______ ----- ________ 7.4 14th

1845 ____ 08 ___________ ----- _____ ----- _______ -1.7 ________ -2.9 _______ -2.5 ________ cold to 26th

1847 ____ 07 ___________ ----- _____ ----- _______ -2.4 ________ -2.9 _______ -3.0 ________ 9.9 17th

1855 ____ 04 ___________ -2.1 _____ -3.0 _______ -3.4 ________ -4.3 _______-4.3 ________ cold to 25th

1860 ____t16 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ -2.0 ________ cold to 25th

1864 ____ t22___________(-1.4) ____ -1.5 ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ ----- ________ 8.1 12th

1870 ____ 10 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ -1.7 _______ -2.7 ________ cold to 23rd

1895 ____ 01 ___________ -6.8 _____ -7.1 _______ -6.5 ________ -5.9 _______ -5.3 ________ cold to 7 Mar  

1900 ____t14 ___________ -1.5 _____ -1.9 _______ -2.1 ________ -2.1 _______ -1.9 ________ 8.0 19th

1902 ____t19 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ -1.8 ________ cold to 23rd

1917 ____ 02 ___________ -5.0 _____ -4.4 _______ -3.3 ________ -1.8 _______ ----- ________ cold to 20th

1919 ____t14 ___________ ----- _____ (-1.4) ______ -1.9 ________ -2.1 _______ -1.6 ________ cold to 20th

1947 ____t19 ___________ -1.8 _____ -1.7 _______ -1.6 ________ -1.7 _______ -1.5 ________ cold to 17 Mar

1978 ____ 21 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ -1.7 ________ cold to 23rd

1985 ____ 05 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ -1.7 _______ -3.5 ________ cold to 23rd

1986 ____t11 ___________ ----- _____ -2.0 ________ -2.4 ________ -2.5 _______ -2.5 _______ cold to 5th Mar

1991 ____ 06 ___________ -2.9 _____ -3.3 ________ -3.1 ________ -2.5 _______ -1.8 _______ cold to 21st

2012 ____t22 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ (-1.4) _______ -1.5 _______ ----- _______ 7.9 17th

________________________________________________________

Some other cold spells not quite in the intervals analyzed above (first half of Feb only)

In 1830, 2-6 Feb average was -5.3, that cold spell yielded to 5.8 on 8th

In 1853, 11-15 Feb average was -1.7 but this spell is known to have produced heavy snowfalls.

In 1912, 1-5 Feb average was -3.2 and by 9th it was 9.0.

In 1929, 12-16 and 13-17 Feb averaged -6.1 but this spell did not qualify during the intervals above.

In 1940, 10-14 Feb averaged -1.5 and it warmed to 8.0 by 22nd-23rd.

In 1947, after the qualifying cold spells, the lowest five day average was -4.2 (21-25).

In 1954, 1-5 Feb averaged -3.3, it stayed cold to 7th but slowly warmed to 5.9 by 14th. 

In 1956, 1-5 Feb averaged -3.5, it was 6.3 by 6th but turned cold again for most of the month.

In 1963, 1-5 Feb averaged -2.7, the rest of the month was cold although no five day interval 5-14 qualified.

In 1969, 8th was -3.8 but no intervals qualified, the coldest five days came later (15-19 Feb -2.3).

In 1970, 12th-16th averaged -1.1, quite cold for more recent decades. It reached 8.5 by 22nd.

In 1979, 14th-18th averaged -1.8. It stayed quite cold with 4.9 on 23rd the only near normal day to 2nd March.

In 1983, 9th-13th managed -0.2, but the whole month was rather cold until the 26th.

In 1996, 4th-8th averaged -0.6, and it warmed to 6.3 on the 11th.

In 2007, 5th-9th averaged -0.2, and it warmed to 8.0 on the 12th.

In 2009, 2nd-6th averaged -0.2, and it warmed to 7.7 on the 17th.

In 2018, the late Feb early Mar cold spell had an average of -2.2 for 26 Feb to 2 Mar. 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 4th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.2c on the 4th
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[Optimus Prime]

CET looking to track comfortably below average by the 9th (ICON data)

 

6 5.2

7 4.9

8 4.4

9 3.8

10 3.2

11 2.7

[LetItSnow!]

Could be wrong but a (somewhat) quick & very rough calculation based on the GFS latest run showing the C.E.T. running close to freezing by mid-month. If we manage to keep the cold until then & especially if we get another cold push in the second half of February, we could potentially be looking at a very notably cold February, especially with downward corrections. Way too early to say, but interesting nonetheless! I would love Feb. 2021 to come out a very cold month. 

[Optimus Prime]

Yeah, and it doesn't need to be overly cold to give us a notably chilly winter

Feb CET   Winter CET

3.0      3.7

2.0      3.4

1.0      3.0

0.0      2.7

-1.0     2.4

Compared to recent cold winters

2012/2013 3.8

2009/2010 2.4

2010/2011 3.1

2008/2009 3.6

1990/1991 3.1

1986/1987 3.5

1985/1986 2.8

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 3.2C -1.6C below normal. Rainfall 43.4mm 66.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

5.3c to the 5th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projections and probabilities

 

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 29% (two days ago it was 31%)
Above average (>4.9C) is to 8% (two days ago it was 27%)
Below average (<3.9C) is 63% (two days ago it was 42% )

[Frigid]

With what the GFS and GEM are currently showing, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the CET went sub zero, if it came off. Could be some very cold nights ahead of us!

[Timmytour]

The prospect of a cold February looming and the potential for it to be colder than January had me looking at years where the winter months are progressively colder as would be the case for this winter.  It turns out to be a pretty common occurrence, happening in nearly one in every three winters.  This ignores winters where there is no outright coldest order of 1-2-3 which accounts for about 4% of all winters, down to about 2.5% since the war (down to  in the CET 

What's noticeable is the increasing frequency of them. Going back to the year 1700 the proportion that seems to fall in reverse order has grown from under 20% to over 30%. The frequency of February being the coldest month has remained consistent around the 42%-43% mark, but what seems to have changed the most is that, in winters where it is the coldest month, January is more likely to have been the next coldest. 

 

Diagram below shows how the winters fall in order of coldest to warmest...

 

    

[kold weather]

Going to need a heck of a switch around for the final 10 days of the month to even get close to average if the GFS/GEM are anywhere near close. Even the warmest ever CET from the 11th onwards only gets us to 6c, and even if we do breakdown earlier, its still going to take a couple of days to warm back up to average from that point.

If the block does manage to hold and we keep a SE airflow for most the CET region then we will probably have a 10 day period somewhere in the -2c ballpark, which would be a heck of a cold spell. 

By mid month I think we are going to be in the bottom 10% coldest at the time. Sub zero has to be a possibility, though probably somewhere between 0-2c is the more likely outcome based on the current models...

[Roger J Smith]

The current signals seem to indicate a rapid slide down to near 1.0 by Thursday, then a slight recovery to about Sunday (2.0 range for running CET) then another dip as the next stage of the cold spell looks much more anticyclonic, even if the CET zone not under the coldest uppers, likely to have very cold nights. Could therefore fall back towards 1.0 with only a week then left in the month. An average sort of 5-6 run there would leave the final result around 2 to 2.4 C. So if the cold lasted longer then yes the monthly average could remain below 2 for the first time in thirty years. 

Meanwhile, EWP around 30 mm, showing 24 for four days, estimate 4 mm yesterday, adding 2-3 for first half of today before 12z GFS estimate began (ten days only around 20 mm, locally heavy sea effect snow plus fairly restricted breakdown precip and a dry spell to follow). This in total gets the month to around 50 mm with about twelve days to go, the maps for days 11 to 16 have some top up but as the situation is fairly volatile by then, will just say that almost all forecasts (except perhaps 500 mm) are still in play depending on what actually happens after part two of the cold spell (if there is a part two).