February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

18z GFS run is even colder and could lead to a very low CET, there's almost no mild incursion left for next weekend then renewed cold that only fades out slowly. Values down into small negatives are quite possible in this case. (-0.5 to 1.5 range looks good for the output shown). Could all be a bit of a fantasy of course, we shall see. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.5C -1.3C below average. Rainfall up 64.2mm 98.5% of the monthly average.

[Timmytour]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

18z GFS run is even colder and could lead to a very low CET, there's almost no mild incursion left for next weekend then renewed cold that only fades out slowly. Values down into small negatives are quite possible in this case. (-0.5 to 1.5 range looks good for the output shown). Could all be a bit of a fantasy of course, we shall see. 

Very much on a knife edge still.  We could still be looking back at the end of this month at a 12 year period during which our coldest month has been a March!  We need to get below that 2.7C mark and I think it's going to end up very tight! It could go one way or the other from mid-month and I wouldn't completely rule out my guess of 4.5C just yet!

That March was also the last time one of the months registered one of its coldest 10% of CETs.  That's no nearly 8 consecutive years, chasing down the record period after May 1996 that was bought to an end by December 2010 and just a few months short from taking over the second place spot currently held by the period that started after March 1729 that was bought to an end by August 1737. 
February's CET would have to fall to around 1.5C for the current run to end, and in spite of the stellar looking charts currently on view, I can't really see that happening.

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 6th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Last time above average this winter.

Edited February 7, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[LetItSnow!]

Dunno, Timmy, I really don’t think it’s going to be hard to get below 1.5 with the continued support for an extension of cold weather at least up to day 10. Perhaps I’m hopeful, but I don’t think so. I would say sub 2.5 is also a definite with the potential for 10 days worth of freezing maximums & bitterly cold overnight minima. 

7 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Very much on a knife edge still.  We could still be looking back at the end of this month at a 12 year period during which our coldest month has been a March!  We need to get below that 2.7C mark and I think it's going to end up very tight! It could go one way or the other from mid-month and I wouldn't completely rule out my guess of 4.5C just yet!

That March was also the last time one of the months registered one of its coldest 10% of CETs.  That's no nearly 8 consecutive years, chasing down the record period after May 1996 that was bought to an end by December 2010 and just a few months short from taking over the second place spot currently held by the period that started after March 1729 that was bought to an end by August 1737. 
February's CET would have to fall to around 1.5C for the current run to end, and in spite of the stellar looking charts currently on view, I can't really see that happening.

 

[CheesepuffScott]

Unofficial guess to look back on in 3 weeks time as I forgot all about this, doh! 3.5°C and 79.4mm

[Frigid]

There certainly is support across the models to keep it cold, daily maxes don't look above freezing in many places for 10 days at least, and minima could be especially low. I'd take a hard guess and say sub 1c is a possibility to the 20th

[Summer Sun]

4.6c to the 7th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[summer blizzard]

Chopped off 0.5C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projections and probabilities

 

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 25% (two days ago it was 29%)
Above average (>4.9C) is to 5% (two days ago it was 8%)
Below average (<3.9C) is 70% (two days ago it was 63%)

GFS for the 8th to the 13th averages about -1C, pulling the CET down to just 2.0C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 3C -1.7C below average. Rainfall 65.4mm 100.3% of the monthly average

[NeilN]

I'm starting to think I've done a tactical guess. 

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, NeilN said:

I'm starting to think I've done a tactical guess. 

Your prediction of 1.9c may not be far off if the cold lingers around until the 3rd week. As for the next few days, it looks very cold in the CET zone and the outlook is anticyclonic which raises the possibility of more night frosts. 

[Don]

I still think my 3.2C could be in with a shout but very difficult to gauge with the current uncertainty.

[Relativistic]

Yes Don, I'd say anything below 5C is still possible. February 2012 was sub-zero until around the 12th, and that ended up at 3.8C.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Relativistic

[Relativistic]

Dare I say it, the daily record for the 11th may be under threat? Minima could widely be close to -10C for much of the southern portion of the zone, with maxima at or below 0C. The current record of -4.2C (1986) is a relatively weak one to beat; I suspect that if we don't beat it we'll come very close.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.6C -2.1C below average, Rainfall 67.1mm 102.9% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

4.1c to the 8th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

21 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Dare I say it, the daily record for the 11th may be under threat? Minima could widely be close to -10C for much of the southern portion of the zone, with maxima at or below 0C. The current record of -4.2C (1986) is a relatively weak one to beat; I suspect that if we don't beat it we'll come very close.

Rare to be in with a chance of beating a date record for cold, normally its first mild. Last time think we did in terms of cold was 1 and 2 March 2018.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Rare to be in with a chance of beating a date record for cold, normally its first mild. Last time think we did in terms of cold was 1 and 2 March 2018.

It was the 1st March 2018. The 28th February and the 17th March came very close (I think second place in both cases). Not sure about the 2nd March.

Sadly, I think our chances of beating the date record are lower now. Hopefully the minima on Thursday surpass expectations.

Re the rarity of setting low date records, I'd say realistically it's now only possible in the period November to March. Summer months have been especially devoid of any low date records in recent decades, and with a much longer sea track over which Arctic-sourced air has to travel I'd say our chances of ever seeing such a record are next to nil. In Winter it's less of a problem because deep cold is still able to pool up over the snowfields in Siberia. I expect that almost all future low date records in the extended Winter will occur in easterly/north-easterly spells.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Relativistic

[Roger J Smith]

I was in London in July 1965 which I believe is one of the few occasions since 1950 when a daily CET record  min was set. It was fresh to say the least, not quite as bad as June 1972 which was unbelievably cold feeling (I spent that entire month in Britain despite having emigrated to Canada before that). 

EWP is around 40 mm at this point, I won't bother to report on projections because model guidance at the moment is about as reliable as the average Nostradamus quatrain for making a weather forecast. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.2C -2.5C below average, Rainfall 68.9mm 105.7% of the monthly average

[Weather-history]

What do we reckon the coldest CET daily mean will be during this spell?

Recent examples

1st March 2018 was -3.8C 

28th February 2018: -3.6C

4th February 2012: -3.0C

Then you have got those December 2010 ones

20th December 2010: -7.0C

 

[damianslaw]

49 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

What do we reckon the coldest CET daily mean will be during this spell?

Recent examples

1st March 2018 was -3.8C 

28th February 2018: -3.6C

4th February 2012: -3.0C

Then you have got those December 2010 ones

20th December 2010: -7.0C

 

How much of the CET zone achieved an ice day yesterday and Monday. Here we have had means of around -0.5. 

I think the next 24 hrs could be the coldest of the current spell.