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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Morning peeps 😊

Hope everyone is well and safe nice bright sunny start today here in NE London.

Looking at the models there was a point I was trying to get through yesterday and I know there was some disagreement on this from other views which I totally respect, because for me this forum is a learnings curve and hands up I am no expert but try to make the best of my understanding from the general weather pattern.

I did say yesterday in my post that what was threatening was the Atlantic coming back and SW winds. I should have made it more clear as to why I was thinking that. I am a. Big coldie and to me snow is so much a fascination as I would say food is to me. Like everyone else I am craving for a big freeze and snow, but sometimes you have to be realistic and not force false hopes upon yourself. Anyway to my eyes my biggest concern is that Azores high we got down south of us. It has been a spoiler of many of our winters and seems to be appearing again from the SW. I am concerned if that sets up shop and we get the Atlantic coming in we could get stuck in a pattern which we dont want ( especially now we are past half stage of winter) time will becoming more and more  of a concern. 

I know we got blocks of high pressure to the north of us and I think it will be worth watching how every thing plays out. The. blicks have to sit in the right place for us to benefit. We may end up with something better in the coming days as the output is changing day by day but iI just wanted to raise my concern obviously. 

Also the SSW may still have impacts but yesterday I was only trying to say, so far it has not benefited us.

Lastly thank you to all the posters for the time they take to share some great information and it's always a pleasure to read the posts. This place would not be the same without them.

Fingers crossed we will see some better output in the coming days and at least we will have something good to remember about this winter.

wishing you and all your families to stay safe.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND GOES ON ❄️❄️

Regards all 😊

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Back end week 2 and even the gfs op may be picking up on a trend ?? it’s a long time since a cold spell has ticked down without any dramas although even if this was to happen, it won’t be carbon copy, run after run ....look at the bigger picture 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.94788496c9cfa4faeff858d70d166d85.png

    image.thumb.png.a1b170480ca283e018237bd29827da18.png

    image.thumb.png.c99b1f429f75c8b9fecae5bb0f7aba53.png

    180h Control gives us Winter 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Back end week 2 and even the gfs op may be picking up on a trend ?? it’s a long time since a cold spell has ticked down without any dramas 

    image.thumb.png.fb8954ace761d204bd69d216fa0c6d75.png

    image.thumb.png.5231466446f1d9ee414ec941d65f71bf.png

    Worth keeping an eye on .............eh? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I disagree, a flatter pattern is favoured for sure, but taking the GEFS as gospel past 168 isn't wise especially with the fluid situation over the Arctic.. would we really be counting our chickens if it showed Nirvana past 168?

    Deep cold isn't on the table at all atm though I'll agree with that.

     

    I don't disagree, just commenting on what the models show? The usual caveats apply with weather and model watching. I do not think that this is anything but a blip, a less-cold period, lots more opportunities in Feb and March, it has just arrived at an inconvenient time (prime winter). Hopefully FI will start showing something more interesting as we get to February?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Sticking to the reliable, about 120hrs tops and only just.. dominant feature is low pressure system developing to our SW set to advance NE to affect whole UK by Tuesday, and becoming absorbed somewhat by the long wave trough to our NE. Consequences are a deepening and stalling hold in situ position, colder air aloft will dig into the system on its western flank as it moves east. 

    Thereafter every chance of secondary low or trough features to zip through underneath, with fine cold/mild boundaries. 

    A fluid and developing situation. I'm not looking beyond about Friday right now, situation is too chaotic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Hmmmm control going the same way and an improvement on the mean ever so slightly!!!are things about to pick up again?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Back end week 2 and even the gfs op may be picking up on a trend ?? it’s a long time since a cold spell has ticked down without any dramas although even if this was to happen, it won’t be carbon copy, run after run ....look at the bigger picture 

    Spotted this in both suites graphs the other day, they have been falling off a cliff at 336 to 384, is one of my spots actually gonna make it, my guess is the signal will grow and grow and grow, get down to 200 and completely crumble in the space of about 3 runs!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    10 minutes ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.94788496c9cfa4faeff858d70d166d85.png

    image.thumb.png.a1b170480ca283e018237bd29827da18.png

    image.thumb.png.c99b1f429f75c8b9fecae5bb0f7aba53.png

    180h Control gives us Winter 


    what’s not to like about the run to run change on anoms !

     

    2CF5F7A8-95F9-4B82-B1D9-F26B0DA9FA48.thumb.jpeg.b7b5f48224fe7b4df3fb82b42067dcf1.jpeg

     

    But the upper ridge does progress east across nw Europe as per eps guidance 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.fb8954ace761d204bd69d216fa0c6d75.png

    image.thumb.png.5231466446f1d9ee414ec941d65f71bf.png

    Worth keeping an eye on .............eh? 

    Yes and TBH it’s far fi where I’m looking for trends. Output can flip unexpectedly but they haven’t. If we expect them to flip and they do, does that count as an unexpected flip?🤣🤣 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:


    what’s not to like about the run to run change on anoms !

     

    2CF5F7A8-95F9-4B82-B1D9-F26B0DA9FA48.thumb.jpeg.b7b5f48224fe7b4df3fb82b42067dcf1.jpeg

     

     

    A positive bluearmy for once😜!!!nick sussex on the other hand hes on red alert🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And, right at the very death, the trusty 06Z comes up with the 'possibility' of two 'channel runners' coming up against -10C uppers!🤣

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Graph form is a small improvement in the mid term - extreme mild options starting to disappear. Will be interesting to see if there is a cluster of flatliners past 300 that Feb and BA allude to.

     

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (23).jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    A positive bluearmy for once😜!!!nick sussex on the other hand hes on red alert🤣

    Yes it must be confusing for some. 

    We have some saying signs are there end of 2nd week for colder conditions at least and others saying hopefully FI will soon start to show improvement? 

    I'm with Damianslaw just take in a few days at a time. Some areas are going to see heavy snow Thursday onward, where that occurs is the conundrum which will unravel as the week progresses. 

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    A positive bluearmy for once😜!!!nick sussex on the other hand hes on red alert🤣

    Did you miss the last part of the post !

    Just now, winterof79 said:

    Yes it must be confusing for some. 

    We have some saying signs are there end of 2nd week for colder conditions at least and others saying hopefully FI will soon start to show improvement? 

    I'm with Damianslaw just take in a few days at a time. Some areas are going to see heavy snow Thursday onward, where that occurs is the exiting thing

    It should be confusing....... there’s nothing straightforward about the current output beyond day 5/6

    funnily enough, it’s perfectly feasible to have a destination in place courtesy of a downwelling wave and yet most of the details on direction of travel to reach that set up is completely uncertain .....

    Shame that we’re missing the para which I’m using as the op with the actual op an alternative control member of the ens .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
    23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Back end week 2 and even the gfs op may be picking up on a trend ?? it’s a long time since a cold spell has ticked down without any dramas although even if this was to happen, it won’t be carbon copy, run after run ....look at the bigger picture 

    Well there are those of us who think that feb could be the month that delivers so I wouldn't be surprised if perhaps it could start picking up on something. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Hmmmm control going the same way and an improvement on the mean ever so slightly!!!are things about to pick up again?

    Aye, good to see mild pushed back! on EC too

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The ecm ens for London:

    ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.a544a4d4d922d5db3e5c3f7c7a5b39c3.gif

    The gfs op and ecm op exploring the milder and colder options respectively at that d8 period where the low may or may not favour colder uppers. I would say that although the gefs have scatter, looking at the above the ecm ensembles they are also scattered.

    Certainly no sign of anything really cold for 2m temps IMBY even in the coldest cluster (5c daytime highs, usually underestimated) and any sub-0c are overnight. The milder cluster around 12c which corresponds with the gefs milder alternative. 

    Not really seeing entropy, more like how flat the flow from the NW to West is? Looking at the De Bilt, there is nominal chance of cold from that direction, so a NW flow or Northerly from passing ridges our most likely source.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    the irony that we have anomolous heights above and below the lw trough and yet we end up with precisely the opposite of what we need with the ridge from the south rather then the north .....go back a week and most would have gone for the north ......
     

    image.thumb.png.c01357616c4b8e0a576c584c1cb76677.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    13 minutes ago, sundog said:

    Well there are those of us who think that feb could be the month that delivers so I wouldn't be surprised if perhaps it could start picking up on something. 

    I am one of those who belives in Feb and a bit of March, since I tend to say that seasons have shifted a bit, so autum is going almost up to late december (with first cold spells around end of Nov), while summer epsiodes start quite early.

    Even with that SSWE in mind, my fear is that we get stucked in some colderly patterns for at least 2 months ongoing and at the end warmer spells will be a reliev we wish for...

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
    50 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Sticking to the reliable, about 120hrs tops and only just.. dominant feature is low pressure system developing to our SW set to advance NE to affect whole UK by Tuesday, and becoming absorbed somewhat by the long wave trough to our NE. Consequences are a deepening and stalling hold in situ position, colder air aloft will dig into the system on its western flank as it moves east. 

    Thereafter every chance of secondary low or trough features to zip through underneath, with fine cold/mild boundaries. 

    A fluid and developing situation. I'm not looking beyond about Friday right now, situation is too chaotic.

    Definitely fluid mate  🙂  The secondary low modelled up at present swinging in across the UK Wednesday into Thursday is the feature to keep a close eye on. At present the GFS is on an "all guns blazing" super amplification approach, as ever, with the system rapidly deepening from 980mb to 950mb in 24hrs from Wednesday evening through to Thursday evening.  For me there is not enough support from the Jet Stream at present to support such rapid intensification.  MetO and ECM taking the less intense route with 975mb.

    "The dig in of cold air on the western flank" of the secondary as I see it ,  may be the trigger to dial in some significant "wintery hazards"  lol .  

    Eyes on it.

    Edited by StingJet
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    After a bit of time, EC has more than one scenario in end of mid-term range

    ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-qxxkm-6

    Yesterdays 12z

    spacer.png

     

    Minor warming is getting "warmer"

    spacer.png  Yersterdays 06 ---> spacer.png

     

    EC @ 5hpA

    +12°C

    ecmwf5f120.png

    This downwells to 10hpa with -15°C in 10hpa, so it matches GFS at day10

    ecmwf10f240.png

     

     

    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the latest models, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air..the cold is being prolonged?..nuff said!😜

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    After a poor start the GFS 06 hrs run tries to retrieve the situation as more forcing appears on the pattern over Western Europe with a renewed surge of Arctic heights .

     

    Still learning - a quick question. Can we really expect the Arctic high to exert influence on the low pressure belt at our latitudes to help push them south if the Geop z500 colours for the Arctic high are light blue? Generally we look for yellow and orange colours to be indicated for a strong Greenland high to have confidence in its ability to exert a positive influence in our neck of the woods. The current GL which has been green and has been trending towards west based -NAO has had only very limited influence in our sphere. Do we need the Arctic high to intensify and / or move further south at our longitude to benefit us for colder conditions? 

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