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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    19 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Interesting to see if UKV sticks to showing sleet and snow over virtutally the entire SE 1/3 of the country as this morning it consistently forecast rain/sleet only for a number of places (blue shades) which proved right its my go to model now along with Icon 

    Oh no not again, saw a few flakes this morning amongst the rain  , Hooray , Anyway here is the Mighty Navgem this evening at 156 hrs . No good for us mate but some will profit from this . 

     

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    9FF8A899-78AC-4A63-80AF-69F1CB3814C2.png

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: Chiltern
  • Location: Chiltern
    1 hour ago, chris55 said:

    Its in my diary lol...... Snow event for the middle section of the UK next weekend. It'll be news worthy.

    Im expecting snowman pics from Cheltenham, Swindon, Hereford, Oxford, MiltonKeynes as a guide 😜 

    Praying!

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    What we have to remember here is that just a very small change early on in the run can make massive differences later on, especially atm. Things are more volatile than usual. I personally think there will be some big swings in the output over the next couple of days. Nothing is nailed atm. I wouldn’t wana be doing the country file forcast tomorrow that’s for sure. Keep the faith people there changes afoot 

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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
    34 minutes ago, Don said:

    As I alluded to earlier, if we didn't have those pesky heights to the south, the outlook would be pretty good with more southerly tracking lows!

    This all hinges on enough forcing by the Greenland high south to stop the low pressures heading north getting caught up in the easterly flow and blowing up allowing the azores to ridge north and putting the UK in a SW/W flow. corrections south is crucial here and has been the general direction last few runs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    I see comments it's the UKMO vs the rest but I don't see it that way, all the models look pretty similar too me and its just the details which of course can make a huge difference. 

    People also mentioning its weird why the low is deepening that much but it makes sence as there is mild air and cold air clashing into the same system so makes it more unstable and deepens it. Probably other factors also so its not a certainty the low will actually deepen and in theory this may increase any snow risk there might be. Either way, the ideal set up would be that low to head as far east ass possible which allows more colder air to filter in from the north, if the centre of the low is too close and its too deep, less cold air will filter in. 

    Its going to be a tough week getting the details right but the rainfall risk does look more of a concern than snowfall at this stage. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Its going to be a tough week getting the details right but the rainfall risk does look more of a concern than snowfall at this stage. 

    The Metoffice now have yellow warnings for rain covering Wales and North West England from Monday to Wednesday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    And the winner of the most excellent award of being most excellent...goes too..."Homer simpson!"  These models are...at best  ..say no more..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    GFS looks like the ridge may hold at +72😍🤞 gfsnh-0-72.thumb.png.57601990d6b45ac5fc45376d7838d43e.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    11 minutes ago, icykev said:

    GFS looks like the ridge may hold at +72😍🤞 gfsnh-0-72.thumb.png.57601990d6b45ac5fc45376d7838d43e.png

     

    We aren't focused on that part of the run what we are focused on is the 120/144hr time mark what we are looking for is for the two lows not to phase and to avoid any shortwaves from the Eastern US and Scandi Low's. Therefore we maintain a better Atlantic Ridge this means that the Greenland high is stronger and thus hopefully pushes the pattern further south allowing cooler northerly air to drop down behind it. 

    Otherwise if we don't maintain that high or it doesn't get reinforced by the artic high then the jet stream gets forced further north again and we end up in a SW air stream as a consequence as the Azores High starts ridging into Iberia again. 

     

     

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    Still holding @126 and further east, looks like its trying to link up with artic heightsgfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.2fcd468cab3eb0da17120714f7a21fc5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    UKMO sticking to its guns at 144👍

    Edit: GFS at the same time.

     

    UN144-21 (21).gif

    UN144-7 (2).gif

    gfsnh-0-144 (18).png

    gfsnh-1-144.png

    GFS not quite as good as the UKMO, looks good at 120 like the UKMO but then blows the low up and elongates the low in the mid Atlantic. Although it does have that similar little low over Italy which may become helpful if that strengthens to keep the AH out of Southern Europe. 

    It does drop the cooler air around +144 but the AH ridging back into S Europe stops the low from sinking and introduces milder air. 

    One thing to notice is can we eek out any extra amplification at +120 as seen on both runs to help us especially without blowing up that low pressure to the east of us and whether we can get a favourable angle from the low exiting the US to get some WAA to assist the Atlantic Ridge.

    gfs-0-120.thumb.png.58e269d9c1d77c34edf0c3a0244c3974.png

     

    Secondly the GFS P looks better doesn't blow that low up and in turn keeps some of the cooler -6 air in and brings in a nice slider around Day 7 although feels academic at that stage. 

    In my opinion follow the OP GFS up to 120/144 hrs then follow the Parallel from there. 

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Ukmo 144...

    image.thumb.png.51cd4a46696abfe8ab37898a3965e80a.png

    Only going one way I would say.

    That ruddy Azores high waiting to ruin things...

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS 0Z para is better at 144...

     

    image.thumb.png.53d1b3e15284b8d3f2969c3383f17363.png

    And there is a snow event shortly after across the south..

    image.thumb.png.ee36a3e8bbdfa30591d0f59a95839f90.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    168 ..

    image.thumb.png.305139b5270440a1d43725631c9cc299.png

    Interesting, defo no Azores high there, 850mb temps are okay. Would be good if that weak amplification in the Atlantic could gain traction

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well well well ECM...

    Having second thoughts?

    Certainly a colder 00z run than yesterday's offerings...

    image.thumb.png.5022d9945c863a8c01bc4dfc29b946d6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Well well well ECM...

    Having second thoughts?

    Certainly a colder 00z run than yesterday's offerings...

    image.thumb.png.5022d9945c863a8c01bc4dfc29b946d6.png

    It's very quiet this morning NWS, hopefully this will please people when they wake up.

    Very volatile models still, keeps me coming back for more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Well if you love your weather, it probably doesn't get any more interesting than this. Persistent, heavy rain leading to flooding for the first half of the week (not sure how anyone could like that though!),  Gales and showery second half with everything including the kitchen sink thrown in, and then significant snow prospects over the weekend depending on the track of the lows...this I feel is going to cause severe stress in here over the week as models chop and change the trajectory of these systems. Still, if your stuck indoors, it'll keep us entertained 🙂

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes a much better EC with colder air persisting until day 9..

    Perhaps the first hints the local forecast is picking up on colder weather from thurs with mention of cold with wintry showers ....

    Certainly a snowy outlook at altitude locally if we can get the precip...

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Clear to see odd one out. 

    C6E34E29-7D49-4007-9CC9-4AF15FABF048.thumb.png.9d87cd05cac7b0c30a678646acca3c6e.pngE6606160-0C2F-4F34-A41B-49D7470C2D59.thumb.gif.48a9ee71456b265e4a7162a6b3890b61.gifFED88A65-D557-49C3-895E-DD2C01F49732.thumb.gif.c6ced169ef0ff460d202a3a08e5e8bcf.gif

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