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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street

    Definitely not looking overly mild in the north east that's for sure

    graphe6_10000___-1.79245283019_54.8582995951_.thumb.png.16ae8bce842fc6001e1eaff8f34e91c1.png

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Okay, no significant cold weather for most of us. Of course there is always, on hills more chance on snow.

    I know you are frustrated seb.

    Me too , let's see how things evolve..

    Fingers crossed 🤞 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Look at the big improvement on today's 06z for next Wed's compared to yesterday's run. 

    gfsnh-0-102.png

    gfsnh-0-126.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Isn't the gem supposed to be up there these days? 

    Suggest colder air from North East for Scandinavia later... 

    gemnh-0-144.png

    gemnh-0-240.png

    gemnh-1-240.png

    I tend not to bother with GEM, when some models are producing nice charts you will usually find the GEM churning out BOOM charts that never come to fruition. 

    For me I just use big 3, then when there all in agreement for something good, I look at JMA and GEM just for some eye candy cos you know they will be showing the real good stuff haha.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 hour ago, TEITS said:

    Based on what I have seen of the model output these past few days I would like to make a few points.

    1. Do not be surprised to see a slow shift to the south of the overall pattern over the next few days.

    2. Keep an eye on any future snow events as low pressure moves across the UK. Very often we see these move S on successive runs. I have lost count of many snow events modelled for the N of England only to move that far S the precip does not even reach the S coast.

    3. Even if the above does not occur in the reliable timeframe the overall trend from the models is to slowly push the PFJ further S.

    Notice the shift south at day 5 by around 100 miles compared to last run - 00z Vs 06z below. Imagine another 200/300 shift south ..

    95C8052F-46DD-4239-B1EA-B9434ADBD545.png

    3817B323-FB88-42C1-8557-88FAA11BE766.png

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I know you are frustrated seb.

    Me too , let's see how things evolve..

    Fingers crossed 🤞 

    If we just would accept, that the NW of Europe isn't THE ALPS, ones would have a easyer life for shure.

    I am on ca. 200m ASL, and had snow for a couple of hours, frost only a few nights, but I am not moaning about it as others do.

    That's maybe the difference in enthusiasm, ones are interested in snowfall in their garden, others (like me) are interested in overall synoptics and don't give a great s... about local outcomes.

    Last year, for example, we had a night, when 850 raised from -8 to +4 within 2-3 hours, with heavy precipitations going trhough all physical states of water, snow, ice drops, rain. I loved it!

    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Notice the shift south at day 5 by around 100 miles compared to last run - 00z Vs 06z below. Imagine another 200/300 shift south ..

    95C8052F-46DD-4239-B1EA-B9434ADBD545.png

    3817B323-FB88-42C1-8557-88FAA11BE766.png

    Although the uppers are colder on the 00z.. which I found surprising.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

    Although the uppers are colder on the 00z.. which I found surprising.

     Not by next weekend..see below for Comparison...

    B263E29E-23FF-4A79-83D2-7644E566A41A.png

    11135757-6066-475A-9704-0261C8C23B58.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    If we just would accept, that the NW of Europe isn't THE ALPS, ones would have a easyer life for shure.

    I am on ca. 200m ASL, and had snow for a couple of hours, frost only a few nights, but I am not moaning about it as others do.

    That's maybe the difference in enthusiasm, ones are interested in snowfall in their garden, others (like me) are interested in overall synoptics and don't give a great s... about local outcomes.

    That's not the point. It's clear that we live on a 'bad place' for winter. The point is that the synoptics are not good in general terms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    1 minute ago, Vikos said:

    If we just would accept, that the NW of Europe isn't THE ALPS, ones would have a easyer life for shure.

    I am on ca. 200m ASL, and had snow for a couple of hours, frost only a few nights, but I am not moaning about it as others do.

    That's maybe the difference in enthusiasm, ones are interested in snowfall in their garden, others (like me) are interested in overall synoptics and don't give a great s... about local outcomes.

    I admire your chivalry i really do, but while I find the synoptics of great interest and follow the weather all year I want snow in my back garden, nothing else will do.

    On Thursday 2 inches of snow fell 2 miles from my house, I could see it clearly from my bedroom window and I was gutted and was miserable until it got washed away during this mornings thaw.

    Irrational I know but on here I think I am in good company 😆 

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Saturday 16 January

    The ecmwf first showing cold over uk 22-24 with the -5 850 already retreating north as the nw-n surface flow gives way to a more atlantic pattern, as the low in the atlantic becomes the main low

    http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

    looking at the ec-gfs pattern this morning, there is no ridge on the ec into Greenland almost none on gfs, both with a rather flabby trough in the uk area. All the flow is around or south of 50 N westerly from the main trough off Newfoundland, although the contour height is around the 528 DM level.

    NOAA is quite meridional yet again on its 6-10 day chart with a very similar chart to yesterday. Not unlike the other two it shows a flattish westerly flow from the main trough position around the 50 N mark.

    So there are some shifts in emphasis on all 3 really, maybe look at the 8-14 Noaa for perhaps some indication if this is carried on. Looking at the 8-14 (justclick on the link) and you can see the answer is probably, at least based on this one chart. Note how that quite strong westerly flow is shown to be into all but Scotland, still quite a ‘cold’ contour with height of 534 DM in that area. It does to me suggest that, at least for a time, we seem likely to have a more westerly pattern for areas south of the border. What happens beyond 14 days, if in fact this happens, I am unable to suggest. The next 2-3 days ‘may’ give a better idea.

    So we have a coldish spell the back end of next week with a flow from NW-N, then both ECMWF and the anomaly charts suggest a more westerly flow for much of the UK?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Definitely a shift south... Easier to see on the anomaly charts... Notice the slight increase in heights to our North pushing the low south

    If we could get assistance from then Pacific high it would be even better.

    gfsnh-12-144.png

    gfsnh-12-150.png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Aside from the hunt for cold you have  to appreciate such an unusual chart and the pure bad fortune of the U.K.

    C0018967-69A6-46A0-85CF-CD1038D55BC7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Again, following Ed's lead, the GFS and Para at 144

    image.thumb.png.03812cade22d015fe9e4fad2f6b278fe.pngimage.thumb.png.0760013d0bdd43ededd7148a9160325e.png  

    I'm seeing plenty of *potential* from here.  It is the 6z though, so......

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Sliders queuing up.. shift south by a couple of hundred miles and bingo for the vast majority...

    yep uppers colder at weekend for this.

    image.thumb.png.9f82b38069f275620482dd6c4d24489f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Doesn’t look too bad to me. ...

    4077AF61-F1A6-4723-A436-E4004DEDB98F.png

    FF4F5287-75C2-4879-88E7-F2487CF9F545.png

    C8E3BA2B-2B7D-44BB-BCE3-269D8625A808.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    FI I know but even 166h on gfs shows an incoming slider with probably another snow event. More likely further south this time.

    GFSOPEU06_168_2.png

    By T+108 for some

    image.thumb.png.08d1d3b409ecebce06e2c5e7a3d2325b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    And this is why looking much beyond 144 is pointless, GFS 6z at 186 vs the 0z for the same time:

    image.thumb.png.19fc970444a239e0f13f5a0667288242.pngimage.thumb.png.05d5b6230510c3e3e7b8f8fdd52d3b2a.png  

    I like the trends so far though. The GEFS will be interesting to se.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

    And this is why looking much beyond 144 is pointless, GFS 6z at 186 vs the 0z for the same time:

    image.thumb.png.19fc970444a239e0f13f5a0667288242.pngimage.thumb.png.05d5b6230510c3e3e7b8f8fdd52d3b2a.png  

    I like the trends so far though. The GEFS will be interesting to se.

    Good point. The outlook is chaotic but the jet will trend south thus bringing the threat of some decent snowfall even with not generally fantastic 850s. All atm very fluid and 120-144 hrs is fi imo. 

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