Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No point spinning . The brutal truth is the Greenie Ridge heads off into the sunset , any deeper cold sees the U.K. and panics and it looks like nothing but a washout for most with some snow reserved for higher elevations .

It’s quite extraordinary to see the PV in Siberia , no PV anywhere to the north or nw but the sum total is crud for the UK .

I’m beginning to wonder whether the SSW shuffled the pack and left Western Europe with the worst outcome .

After tonight’s outputs surely the only way is up ! 

The effects of the SSW will be felt for way longer than this 3 week period especially with an already weakened vortex. It only occurred on the 5th ,10 days ago 

Edited January 15, 2021 by winterof79

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No point spinning . The brutal truth is the Greenie Ridge heads off into the sunset , any deeper cold sees the U.K. and panics and it looks like nothing but a washout for most with some snow reserved for higher elevations .

It’s quite extraordinary to see the PV in Siberia , no PV anywhere to the north or nw but the sum total is crud for the UK .

I’m beginning to wonder whether the SSW shuffled the pack and left Western Europe with the worst outcome .

After tonight’s outputs surely the only way is up ! 

Don't you believe it!

[IDO]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Here is a different view. (day 8 from the ops GFS and ECM)

A boundary snowfall is a high probability IMO. Less cold/more mild......depends on where you are and how the pattern unfolds. Means just blur the lines in this set up.

Ec day 8

GFS day 8

Love your optimism and hope for the best!

 

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

A waste of time looking past day 10 if that. Listen to the pros. Weathertrending.com for example.

 

We can look at the pros and digest and then use our own experience and make our own best guess. Nothing wrong in that even if we are more miss than hit! They are not mutually exclusive.

[chionomaniac]

So, I said earlier that I would just look at the big three upto T+144 following the 12zs this afternoon and see how I felt about the runs without looking further past this time or reading the forum to garner ideas. It has been far more difficult than I thought. Here are the 3 T+144 charts

GFS

 

Ukmo

ECM

So here are my thoughts. All 3 suggest a weak Greenland block with a deep depression centred to the east of Scotland.

Any cold northerly flow, would be dependent on the block holding and being reinforced, otherwise the Atlantic will creep under the back door and put a stop to a proper cold northerly.

Out of the three, it looks like the UKMO has the best chance to have a quick return to the Atlantic under the block, and any cold northerly looks short lived and not reaching the south of the UK. There is little suggestion here that the Greenland block would be reinforced.

Conversely, the GFS looks like it has the best chance of reinforcing the Greenland block, at least for a while, due to the negative angle of the low towards the SW of Greenland. This may allow colder 850,s to reach more southern areas and the strong arm of the southern jet stream may allow a frontal snow event over the uk depending on exactly how delayed the Atlantic passage takes.

And the ECM is a halfway house between them. Due to the weakness of the Greenland high and lack of reinforcement from all three models, my likely opinion would be a typical north/ south divide between colder and more mild conditions, with the GFS giving the best chance that the cold would extend further south. There are no indications from any of the models that a prolonged cold spell is on the cards.

I will try and repeat this exercise with tomorrow’s 12z runs, but in the meantime I will have a look at the extended outlooks to see how well I have done!

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Exactly, The great uncertainty 4/5 days out continues.

 

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No point spinning . The brutal truth is the Greenie Ridge heads off into the sunset , any deeper cold sees the U.K. and panics and it looks like nothing but a washout for most with some snow reserved for higher elevations .

It’s quite extraordinary to see the PV in Siberia , no PV anywhere to the north or nw but the sum total is crud for the UK .

I’m beginning to wonder whether the SSW shuffled the pack and left Western Europe with the worst outcome .

After tonight’s outputs surely the only way is up ! 

Logic dictates wait and see, but model watching seems like a pendulum swinging, uncomfortably at times, between both of these perspectives. 

Still hoping and waiting for the unexpected and sudden shift to something more appealing than a short 2 day period from day 8. It's been a challenging week for many reasons, and to be honest following here is the the only thing keeping me going (for now).

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Then why did you post the day 8 ECM op and the day 8 GFS mean???

Read my previous posts today and you will see that has always been what the models have been saying (circa d10). I do not post d9-d10 ecm charts, and I suspect you are bored with me explaining the reasons why! I am mean and cluster fan after d8!

[Cold Winter Night]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No point spinning . The brutal truth is the Greenie Ridge heads off into the sunset , any deeper cold sees the U.K. and panics and it looks like nothing but a washout for most with some snow reserved for higher elevations .

It’s quite extraordinary to see the PV in Siberia , no PV anywhere to the north or nw but the sum total is crud for the UK .

I’m beginning to wonder whether the SSW shuffled the pack and left Western Europe with the worst outcome .

After tonight’s outputs surely the only way is up ! 

Wasn't the story when the SSW happened that a quick tropical response would take us to the 20th as landing date, but that it's usually a slower process, like 3-6 weeks?

If we say: "Don't look beyond +144h", that means even the quickest  QTR would only just be visible in the reliable timeframe today, let alone the slower response.
I'm not saying that we will see Narnia on the charts tomorrow, but maybe we should wait just a little longer with conclusions about the SSW.

[phil nw.]

ECM at day 6 showing fairly good agreement with the earlier GFS and UKMO .

So a bit of an up and down again week to come by the looks of it  temperature wise.The 850's for Warks.

The fronts moving in tomorrow with some transitional snow bringing in a less cold few days into mid-week with the Atlantic flow around the low as it lingers just to our north.Then we see the return to colder weather.

It could get interesting as the main jet will running to our south with any Atlantic lows coming against cold air to their east or north.

I will say no more at this stage,as we know this is a tricky scenario to judge this far out. 

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looks like we finally have consensus to around d10. The gefs mean and d8 ecm:

So a less cold period and we will just have to hope this is not a long spell.

 

It's becoming a bit like scrapping your finger nails down a blackboard, this chase (unless you've had snow this week in which case you probably mind less!!). The models are constantly between D6 and D10 at the point where you think something truly cold might develop, but the models keep it just out of reach. The ECM chart above, for instance - just a bit more separation between the Atlantic low and the Shetland low and the really cold purple finger might just swing south instead of west. And you know that, 7 days away, it's still a possibility. But few charts have upgraded recently inside D6 aside yesterday for the east Midlands. Maybe this time?

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, offerman said:

Spot on Nick, Always like reading your posts as no glossing it up or cherry picking. 

 

Thanks . Unfortunately everything that can go wrong does in tonight’s outputs .

It’s very disappointing for coldies but we’ve been here before , many times .

 

[BARRY]

A

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks . Unfortunately everything that can go wrong does in tonight’s outputs .

It’s very disappointing for coldies but we’ve been here before , many times .

 

And we will be here for a few more disappointing winter

[Grumpy Yorkshireman]

Guys

Just because we are seeing substantial changes and anything post 5 days changes by the hour, please don't stop analysing what the long term is showing..... and then showing it! Just because it changes doesn't mean its wrong. It just means we are interpreting data from way out, in isolation. 

There is no harm in what might be.......... reality right now is pretty ***te anyway.

[chris55]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Read my previous posts today and you will see that has always been what the models have been saying (circa d10). I do not post d9-d10 ecm charts, and I suspect you are bored with me explaining the reasons why! I am mean and cluster fan after d8!

Thats fair enough but you can't just post a day 8 mean from GFS and a day 8 op from EC and state day ten will be less cold....without the context of your previous posts, I haven't read them lol.

One thing I will add from my point of view regarding means in this 'close boundary line' pattern is to take a look at the London vs Aberdeen spaghetti ensembles. (not looking beyond day 10-11 here)

You can see the milder spikes (away from the op) increasing in London from the 22nd but looking at Aberdeen they stay flatter, this is representative of milder air attempting to cross the UK acossiated with southerly tracking low pressure systems, on this boundary line there is a high chance of frontal snowfall.

London 

Aberdeen

 

Nothing set in stone as ever, but to say its 'optimism and hope" from my point of view is a bit harsh.

 

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

The effects of the SSW will be felt for way longer than this 3 week period especially with an already weakened vortex. It only occurred on the 5th ,10 days ago 

Maybe so, but I'm struggling to see how positive changes will come about when the effects of the SSW seem clear in the model output, and that is for deep cold to be kept away from us. For all the talk of uncertainity by day 10, the models have firmed up on the idea of no proper cold outbreak during the last days of January

 

Unless this brief strat split somehow shuffle things up in a favourable way, i don't have confident in things changing for the better.  We had the villian of the piece, the Russian High, before the SSW to scupper cold coming this way, now post the SSW we are scuppered due to other things. It's sod's law!

[Guest]

The sad truth of the matter is that Greenie has never been up for the fight, main problem being Lack of girth....

 

[Frosty.]

Can someone please tell me the last time an ECM day 10 verified???..hmmm..I can answer that..NEVER!!...just enjoy the  ride, it’s a volatile period coming up with hopefully some nice sudden stratospheric warming  surprises...for coldies!

Edited January 15, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Vikos]

Some of you guys don't seem to follow the Strat Thread.

Strat is in a real mess right now, warming was now 10 days ago, reflections to Trop are just about to start (+14 days, sometimes even more). Models will pick up major changes when they occur, there is just not enough data for predictions, as the knowledge about influences Strat<->Trop are not fully known yet.

To say that winter is over and to moan over some "bad" outputs is not adequate in a (semi) professional synoptics thread, I think.

Yet this sensless comparission of 06z/12z runs (or 18z/00z) is a punch in the stomach for everybody interested in synoptics in the way it is ment do be done.

So again, everything beyond 120h is Didi-Land, we need that downwelling first in full effect...

[swfc]

Evening. I've never heard so much moaning over model output that's ten days away!!! The cross model output shows much fluidity even early on ete. Just wait to see how it pans out given the SSW and forcing. Remember it's weather and subject to change in 24 hrs. BTW things could be worse given the situation ie covid ete. Count your blessings and calm down

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Evening nick.

Posts like this really add nothing to the forum IMO. It just stirs the emotions of those longing for a colder set up, and is pretty pointless.

(plus you don't even live in the UK , so its not like its even coming from personal frustration)

Give me you analysis of tonights UKMO vs the GFS at 144, that would be more interesting

I am personally frustrated for UK coldies who seem to get continual bad luck . And having lived in the UK for a long time I know just how frustrating it is .

Irritatingly tonight there is good agreement across the big 3 models ops at day 6 .  Timing wise some changes as in phasing with the upstream Atlantic troughing post day 6 could help going forward . The other issue is the reinforcement of the UK troughing from the ne with that parcel of deeper vorticity which stops any se momentum .

There are some smallish changes which could help . I await further runs with hope !

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Evening. I've never heard so much moaning over model output that's ten days away!!! The cross model output shows much fluidity even early on ete. Just wait to see how it pans out given the SSW and forcing. Remember it's weather and subject to change in 24 hrs. BTW things could be worse given the situation ie covid ete. Count your blessings and calm down

 Quite so swfc. The trend in the medium term now  doesn’t have to the medium term trend in two/three or four days time or even tomorrow for that matter  By then the trend could be very different.

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Some of you guys don't seem to follow the Strat Thread.

Strat is in a real mess right now, warming was now 10 days ago, reflections to Trop are just about to start (+14 days, sometimes even more). Models will pick up major changes when they occur, there is just not enough data for predictions, as the knowledge about influences Strat<->Trop are not fully known yet.

To say that winter is over and to moan over some "bad" outputs is not adequate in a (semi) professional synoptics thread, I think.

Yet this sensless comparission of 06z/12z runs (or 18z/00z) is a punch in the stomach for everybody interested in synoptics in the way it is ment do be done.

So again, everything beyond 120h is Didi-Land, we need that downwelling first in full effect...

Don't know about everybody else but Didi land to me translates to tiny land 

[Bricriu]

19 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

The sad truth of the matter is that Greenie has never been up for the fight, main problem being Lack of girth....

 

Agreed. It has never been a true Greenland high that is the problem. If it was we would not have the problem with all these lows acting the maggot.

[joggs]

The models might not be showing cold nirvana for those who wish it, but MJO is forecast on the move into a more favorable position and another shot of trip wave into the strat in a week or so . Day 10 never verifies and Exeter's soundings are not the worst imo. Could be like last year..........

[Bricriu]

15 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Some of you guys don't seem to follow the Strat Thread.

Strat is in a real mess right now, warming was now 10 days ago, reflections to Trop are just about to start (+14 days, sometimes even more). Models will pick up major changes when they occur, there is just not enough data for predictions, as the knowledge about influences Strat<->Trop are not fully known yet.

To say that winter is over and to moan over some "bad" outputs is not adequate in a (semi) professional synoptics thread, I think.

Yet this sensless comparission of 06z/12z runs (or 18z/00z) is a punch in the stomach for everybody interested in synoptics in the way it is ment do be done.

So again, everything beyond 120h is Didi-Land, we need that downwelling first in full effect...

So you are saying the models have not factored  in the full effects of downwelling? So what are we seeing in the Northern Hemisphere profile. It looks to me that the effects of SSW are being shown in the output, but unfortunately we are not benefiting from it?

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Don't know about everybody else but Didi land to me translates to tiny land 

Google it