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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    A colder Northerly at 186. 

    If the low near West Greenland can stay further west in future runs it would be even better.

    gfsnh-0-186 (8).png

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    One thing that's so consistent on this mornings run is the constant heights in Greenland and the repeated attempt to create a ridge. I think next week we will see plenty of Northerly incursions with snow for the North and if those lows dig further South obviously the risk of snow increases further to those snow starved southeners. Good start from the Gfs continuing on from the pub run.

    Edited by snowangel32
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GEM 138...

    image.thumb.png.6bb70bd64bbfa08aa168d95f6a79b2ed.png

    GEM  192

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    Tentative upgrades in the model output in the last 48 hours. An increase in the troughing into Iberia and amplification into Greenland, as well as a negative Newfoundland tilt. These quite significant in terms of longevity of the upcoming cold spell. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T120 all 3. Happy to look no further and happy with those for now.  That takes until the 20th. Plenty of time left.👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Following on from the post above. Here is T144 for all 3. T168 850’s for gfs and ecm. That’s why I think T120 is far enough.👍

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    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
    50 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    T120 all 3. Happy to look no further and happy with those for now.  That takes until the 20th. Plenty of time left.👍

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    Good Morning, so the weather forecast I watched just now says turning milder as we head into next week? Do the charts show a brief warm up or are they not showing this?

    I'm a novis at this but to me the charts look like  they are turning colder?

    Thanks...  🖒🖒

    Edited by The BEAST From The East
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

    Good Morning, so the weather forecast I watched just now says turning milder as we head into next week? Do the charts show a brief warm up or are they not showing this?

    I'm a novis at this but to me the charts so it  turning colder?

    Thanks...  🖒🖒

    You pays your money you take your chance.😄 Depends on when next week and where you are. Depends on what model you think is more likely. For me, most are guessing. A small change can have big differences. Not the answer you want I guess but we will just have to watch with interest. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Surely the whole UK going bitterly cold eventually The trend is your friend and its all heading to cold and snow for all. 

    Would have to have the most rotten luck to miss out now. 

    Only a fool would disagree entirely with the above but at the same time, there is no strong evidence that it has credence, especially as you head north to south ....

    Very much swings and roundabouts at the moment ......

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  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

    Good Morning, so the weather forecast I watched just now says turning milder as we head into next week? Do the charts show a brief warm up or are they not showing this?

    I'm a novis at this but to me the charts so it  turning colder?

    Thanks...  🖒🖒

    Today is cold

    tomorrow is cool to cold with transient snow early 

    sunday is chilly

    early next week we see some unsettled conditions as a system moves across us and it will become milder than the next three days. 

    later next week it turns colder again 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Only a fool would disagree entirely with the above but at the same time, there is no strong evidence that it has credence, especially as you head north to south ....

    Very much swings and roundabouts at the moment ......

    Could do with a little push south with the pattern but Scotland looks very well placed to stay well  north of the jet ..

    Potentially very snowy set up for somebody...

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Its possible looking at the EC the word slider may become relevant again ...

    And we know from experience they tend to be modelled further south as time counts down...

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its possible looking at the EC the word slider may become relevant again ...

    And we know from experience they tend to be modelled further south as time counts down...

    They do in normal circumstances but what’s currently going on isn’t really normal !  

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Agreeable improvements in trend across all 3 at 144.. heights into Greenland stronger and that trough to our east slightly further east and not so round..

    GFS continues from 144 in an acceptable fashion to 240 which is always the very limits for me and thats only for rough guide. UKm looks nicely primed for beyond 144

    ECM goes west based NAO and you can see that taking shape at 144.. my solace here is that ECM has form for over amplified output and I guess it's not completely daft it would be less amplified as we close in on mid to end of next week..

    Definitely postive trends in the models past 24 hours.. be nice to see it maintained a similar trend in modeling for the next day would in my view put us all in with a decent shot of very cold and snow from mid to end of next week...

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    Posted
  • Location: Chiltern
  • Location: Chiltern
    2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Surely the whole UK going bitterly cold eventually The trend is your friend and its all heading to cold and snow for all. 

    Would have to have the most rotten luck to miss out now. 

    Here we go again  😉

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    Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent
    29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its possible looking at the EC the word slider may become relevant again ...

    And we know from experience they tend to be modelled further south as time counts down...

    We need better height rises to our NE for sliders and disruption to help us I think. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Today is cold

    tomorrow is cool to cold with transient snow early 

    sunday is chilly

    early next week we see some unsettled conditions as a system moves across us and it will become milder than the next three days. 

    later next week it turns colder again 

    Do you know if this low to the sw brings snow on the ECM?

    spacer.png

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  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    Do you know if this low to the sw brings snow on the ECM?

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    For a few possibly but not for many imo.

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