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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk
    6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Excellent update EC46.

    20210114202356-f3b96c25cb2f4e58fa15f1465fa04e7c22d8ac20.png

     

    ]

    What does ATR stand for in that graph! Atlantic trough? TIA👍

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

     

    20210114203028-6019cfb2b8ac6d21cd4352778fc1532776afedc8.png

     

     

     

     

    Hello Feb 1st 2009!!!

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    8 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

    Can’t move Shetland cause of Covid look which is such a shame but hopefully something happend but just can’t see it through  reading posts about models

    I think the outlook going into late January-Feb is OK for most of the UK. My Shetland comment was tongue in cheek. Keep the faith the jet hopefully will go well south 🙏🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    35 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Not sure about the "up North" comment. We take it on the chin, rain snow, floods ete. We don't make headlines ie se England and we don't complain about crap summers. Think on. Anyway the model output and nhp don't really support a true Gh ete. The SSW is just  coming into the mix model wise and I'd suspect a lot of change on all models over the next 7-10 days. Whatever that delivers be it a north south divide cold  and snow ete its in the hands of the gods. Enjoy whatever the weather 🤗🤗🤗

    Because it isn’t as special (common) up there? And not seen by much apart from livestock? Lol kidding, this country is full of moaners you don’t need to look far ie. this forum.
     

    @mulzy don’t totally understand your assessment there is ridging indicated into Iberia but not really extending northwards much of Europe including med has low heights. It’s painting extended extremely unsettled and zonal conditions, but I don’t think it would take something huge for that to look quite different.

    D54253BA-96D9-4818-9DFB-5CB9472DC87E.thumb.png.735a8536be590a425179d7305d0f4338.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I thought the SSW was nearly 2 weeks ago now? Should the models not have a handle on that now? 🤔

    The PV only split today though 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Look at all that Arctic blocking, imagine if we if could get this to creep into Scandinavia.

    Small margins between cold and deep cold

    20210114204203-dede093c57682ce25906e8cf7d3800698c2d9a98.png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Because it isn’t as special (common) up there? And not seen by much apart from livestock? Lol kidding, this country is full of moaners you don’t need to look far ie. this forum.
     

    @mulzy don’t totally understand your assessment there is ridging indicated into Iberia but not really extending northwards much of Europe including med has low heights. It’s painting extended extremely unsettled and zonal conditions, but I don’t think it would take something huge for that to look quite different.

    D54253BA-96D9-4818-9DFB-5CB9472DC87E.thumb.png.735a8536be590a425179d7305d0f4338.png

     

    Livestock🤔🤔think you guys couldn't cope with a proper winter mate. You'd need government help with four inch of snow and the rain and floods need army assistance. Hope the SSW brings you some good blocking and snow you deserve it. Spare us the headlines and platitudes tho when you get 4 inch of snow 🤗🤗🤗

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Yep, I think too many may be guilty of looking too far ahead, rather than concentrating on the short term building blocks that we see currently modelled. I mean how many people would be fretting if they couldn’t see what was modelled past day 6?

    Exactly. T144 is the maximum. And even that is a little optimistic. That's why I am more confident tonight in that the big 3 seems to be closer. Still lots to go, but a definite up-tick.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Look at all that Arctic blocking, imagine if we if could get this to creep into Scandinavia.

    Small margins between cold and deep cold

    20210114204203-dede093c57682ce25906e8cf7d3800698c2d9a98.png

    Looks like the pattern we’ve had most of winter does it not? Higher than average pressure over Greenland/Arctic with lows more southerly tracking than usual but moving slowly and thus pumping up air from the south into Scandinavia?

    It’s funny really, we’ve had a very rainy winter down here and yet the Atlantic hasn’t really been at its raging zonal worst.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    Looks like the pattern we’ve had most of winter does it not? Higher than average pressure over Greenland/Arctic with lows more southerly tracking than usual but moving slowly and thus pumping up air from the south into Scandinavia?

    It’s funny really, we’ve had a very rainy winter down here and yet the Atlantic hasn’t really been at its raging zonal worst.

    Yes we need an adjustment south and east. As least the Russian high is no longer blocking the cold from Siberia coming into Scandinavia anymore

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk
    12 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Livestock🤔🤔think you guys couldn't cope with a proper winter mate. You'd need government help with four inch of snow and the rain and floods need army assistance. Hope the SSW brings you some good blocking and snow you deserve it. Spare us the headlines and platitudes tho when you get 4 inch of snow 🤗🤗🤗

    North or South where is the line, weather forecasts always use it as a referance, but never show you where it is?...I was told its how you pronounce bath.....baath (North)or barrth!... or if you kept your ketchup in the fridge(South) or the cupboard!🤔

    Edited by Snowmut
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    25 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    EC46. Northern blocking. UK/ Netherlands on the edge.

    20210114203028-6019cfb2b8ac6d21cd4352778fc1532776afedc8.png

    20210114203018-37f6a648b193e5965fd3ecb002d88b420b8b011d.png

    20210114203010-3c05321d5e8e0d039e335c372572104007e25b9a.png

    20210114203000-6ad01e0a4326b036bb46788ec969113eb6e97874.png

    20210114202951-b8b3e726569a2b2dfc7668a7d399cff10dc5f580.png

    20210114202941-0fc136715e672c110f949be0e2eefa2348543a91.png

    Colder than average in the north and around average in the south with high pressure to the north and low pressure over the U.K. Looks to be a long the lines of the Met Office outlook for generally cold conditions but areas of low pressure bringing precipitation and milder air into the south at times. Potential for snow near the boundary of cold and milder air. The increasing cold anomaly over Scandinavia suggests some cold air spreading westward.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    33 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Not sure what your point is tbh. It's mid January and your ona bout "us southerners" graphics show its milder and hotter in summer. In respect to the model output and nhp atm there's nothing in the reliable to say or show the south wont get any wintry weather between now and the end of March. See how it pans out or maybe move to the shetlands? Enjoy the SSW and its meanderings. You can't change it 🙏🙏🙏

    I like this post (despite being a resident next to Gatwick 🙄 - I don’t even get my planes any more! 🤦🏻‍♂️).

    Here’s a thing though. A good run for the ‘south’ usually means an absolute belter for the ‘north’, given what that set up would entail. 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Seems like that approaching low is doing us a favour by now being shown to get a move on and clear east to allow a Northerly to swing down. Very good if you ask me, as this enables some cold to establish itself before the next onslaught. That could easily end up as a snowmaker. Small steps in the right direction. 

    This is like watching end to end counter attacking football lately. Very nerve racking!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    50 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Skandi, high?

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

    Can you please clarify what a Skandi high is? Maybe you mean Scandi? Those clusters at T240 and T360 aren’t interested a deep trough signalled near to us. Not a fan of them west based -NAO. Next! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    58 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Skandi, high?

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    The little tell tale on the these charts is the bottom right hand corner. If it's free of anomaly, or into the positive anomalies, then that's a hint of a Euro ridge. You need blues on the far bottom right edge. Cluster 1 at T240 is ok, cluster 2 at T360 is fine, but the other clusters are either playing with mild or cold for NAO (Northern Areas Only)

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