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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Good morning all. Let's hope the new thread brings new cold hopes. Looking forward to the 00z runs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
    15 minutes ago, jason6347 said:

    I don’t know how to post charts lol but ukmo and gfs are a lot better this morning

    Same! The fact that there aren't a string of posts saying how terrible it's looking is an upgrade on what I've woken up to every other day this week! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    1 hour ago, Mucka said:

    The Atlantic ridge that is a 100% requirement of any cold spell is getting very close to disappearing around 120h with just a small cut off high standing in the way of us and Atlantic zonal

    gfsnh-0-126.pnggfsnh-0-126.png

    Fortunately it is enough so far to stall the low approaching Greenland and give us some more much needed WAA reinforcements and undercut.

    UKMO is even more delicately poised with less amplification the pattern further SE  by 144

    UN144-21.GIF?14-05

    I think maybe people just see the Northerly and not worry about upstream but UKMO continues to be stubborn .

    It would probably be okay with the next low reinforcing the ridge and undercutting but we really could do with being more amplified and further W

    After Yesterday mornings output it is definitely reason to be upbeat but just as a reminder of how much that ridge has been downgraded and forced East over the last 2 days of output

    2 days ago for 19th V today for 19th Jan and that is the same with ECM.

    gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-120.png

     

    So any more corrections really need to be back west and restrengthening the ridge to make sure we get the undercut

    Overall this mornings output still suggests a cold plunge last 3rd Jan with a battleground type set up last week between milder Atlantic air to the SW and colder Arctic air to the NE.

    The colder we can get with the initial plunge the more chance the lows will disrupt and be further S.

     

     

    Although the greenland high is watered down somewhat iv saw much weaker wedges (2013) deflect low pressure systems away from Northern most areas. 

    With no jet stream and no vortex that high pressure will have zero problem at all in deflecting random meandering low pressure systems on a southerly path.. 

    Not to mention an absolute stonker of t144 UKMO chart, cold, snowy add a strong northerly wind 👍💥👊

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Unnecessary comment removed
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Talking of dodgy ridges just seen the GEM (and no I'm not saying it is right, it is not a good model)

    gemnh-0-144.png?00

    Which gives us this zonal flow.

    gemnh-0-192.png?00

    @Severe Siberian icy blast

    I am not saying this will happen or that the pattern couldn't reamplify and recover. I am just saying it is  a risk if the ridge is too far E and we don't get the undercut.

     

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    1 hour ago, jason6347 said:

    I don’t know how to post charts lol but ukmo and gfs are a lot better this morning

    To post the charts, left click with your mouse the image you want to post foe example 144 Uk mo chart, then right click where it say save image to a given file in your computer save the image at your chosen file, then below here where it says drag the files choose, left click, find the file you have saved on your computer, left click image, then left click open below, your image should upload as the image below.  Gender Male, Location Battersea ,London

    UW144-21.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    NetWx-mr take on today's snowfall, 2pm.

    1895158989_viewimage-2021-01-14T060417_494.thumb.png.17a9be168bc4d54ef1f2d7a45e0c35f0.png805433181_viewimage-2021-01-14T060437_766.thumb.png.031a1fd0b7c63507ca887eff03ac6905.png

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    45 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    😂😂😂😂 Maybe I went a little ott then😂 🤷‍♂️ maybe we just need a coffee lol iv been up since 5am with a lady friend I made sleep down stairs after she got really drunk and I was very close to chucking her out so yes maybe we both need to chill out!!!! 

    Agreed. ECM trickling out. Let's hope the better output overall continues.

    Certainly no complaints with this GFS mean chart for two weeks out!

    To still show Atlantic blocking at that range among so much noise is amazing and a product of perturbations constantly reamplifying  in the Atlantic sector.

     

    gensnh-31-1-336.png

     

    ECM 120 has the high a little further NW than GFS and UKMO so good there. Just about how the phasing to our SW goes. Hopefully the low doesn't blow up.

    ECH1-120.GIF?14-12

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    33 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

    NetWx-mr take on today's snowfall, 2pm.

    1895158989_viewimage-2021-01-14T060417_494.thumb.png.17a9be168bc4d54ef1f2d7a45e0c35f0.png805433181_viewimage-2021-01-14T060437_766.thumb.png.031a1fd0b7c63507ca887eff03ac6905.png

    This model took far too long but has finally cottoned on that its not going to snow in Liverpool or Manchester city centres.

    image.thumb.png.39d0c0b5565cf10d64621a2ab12bcbc9.png

     

    ECM - 960's worth over Northern Scotland with hurricane force winds.

    image.thumb.png.bc00e6add8fb0383369f2ac66b3eb4b7.png

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    144 comparisons.

    ECM, GFS, UKMO

    ECH1-144.GIF?14-12gfsnh-0-144.pngUN144-21.GIF

    ECM looks good with the ridge but would have been nice if the low had tracked further S and not blown up. Maybe that will come this evening and we see a better and quicker cold flow.

     

    GFS ensembles so much better than Yesterday morning and improving in deep FI from recent runs

    graphe3_10000_257_70___.gif

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    144 comparisons.

    ECM, GFS, UKMO

    ECH1-144.GIF?14-12gfsnh-0-144.pngUN144-21.GIF

    ECM looks good with the ridge but would have been nice if the low had tracked further S and not blown up. Maybe that will come this evening and we see a better and quicker cold flow.

     

    GFS ensembles so much better than Yesterday morning and improving in deep FI from recent runs

    graphe3_10000_257_70___.gif

    Looking very cold over the next few days but its currently very mild in Wrexham - 8 degrees - temps dropping to 1 or 2 by this afternoon. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

    Morning, its pretty clear from this morning's output how those two low pressure's interact at 96HR is yet to be resolved so pointless looking any further than that. Once thats sorted its where the boundary line sets up between colder air to the north and milder to south with with possible snow on the boundary.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl

    Wouldn't mind GFS pert 24 coming off. There's a lot of decent cold runs in the ensembles, especially around 25th Jan onwards.

    NW.thumb.png.16cf52eed5358d206d046049012d592c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

    Wouldn't mind GFS pert 24 coming off. There's a lot of decent cold runs in the ensembles, especially around 25th Jan onwards.

    NW.thumb.png.16cf52eed5358d206d046049012d592c.png

    Yes, a good GEFS suite with some very good runs, need the ECM on board, wont care as much about the op being poor as long as the eps improve.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, a good GEFS suite with some very good runs, need the ECM on board, wont care as much about the op being poor as long as the eps improve.

    Not bad are they, op mainly on the mild side, .not overly cold but cold enough for snow at times. I expect the words marginal and elevation could be used quite a bit over the next couple of weeks...

    1C09DCB6-EA3C-4CE1-B9D9-403FAFA0B9EE.jpeg

    B58A359F-AC3A-4B97-948C-A19685FBA40B.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    image.thumb.png.6a62f13adf28fdd808d48f0d287966d4.pngimage.thumb.png.07fe43de677198458af4d0b12c0e0f46.png   
     

    we could do with the phasing of the trough dropping in from the north and southern arm being shifted east and also a bit further south to remove the warm air. Gefs is better than eps here so expecting a better outcome than the gefs is currently unlikely. 

     

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    ECM to d10 is very poor for cold and snow and even "potential":

    anim_udh4.gif

    At d10 (FWIW) it is flat with the forcing by the Pacific high now phasing differently, from ridge to oscillating and that tends to flatter and zonal downstream.  The gfs at d8 still has a transient ridge, but this is far less a driver than the 18z (by d9-10 a wedge):

    881006673_gfsnh-0-192(2).thumb.png.1c4cb12b0f712298e31e9ee1091ab21e.png gens_panel_fgb3.png

    Hopefully ecm op is an outlier.

    The gfs op defaults back to Atlantic in FI (ignore), but at d11 the gefs are good^^^. So we wait to see what happens once the chaos is resolved by the supercomputers!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The eps run reverses a little the heights to our se over Europe as week two pregresses. This is a better trend as it will encourage the jet not to tend sw/ne across the U.K. with systems running into the base of the trough ...it’s not a big change but reverses the momentum that we have been seeing. 

    this fits in with the 00z gefs trend to solidify the sceuro trough in week 2. Maybe the effects from the strat split dropping out are being played out better now in the ens   ???

    Edited by bluearmy
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