Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I disagree with that line though... it has been so far a frustrating year as the potential is and has been great. We have been on the brink for a month now, but the final peice of the jigsaw has so far eluded us.
And according to the hadley centres CET, this january so far has been the second coldest since 1987 ..

But so far we are the Lena Valatis of winters, She came second 40 years ago in the Eurovision Song Contest... Behind Bucks Fizz... we all remember the winner but not the runner up.
 

I can see why others disagree with me. That said, at no point this year have i been excited about the prospects because whilst the synoptics looked good superficially, in practice it was virtually impossible to get cold enough air into the UK because we were always drawing air up from the Med so I would argue that potential was poor due to the positioning of the Russian high. Ironically if it were still sat there we are at the stage where cold air might have come round the southern flank as we have progressed into mid winter. Of course it now decides to get lost and we get Iberian high pressure instead.

I've felt like the Grinch this year because amongst all the ramping I've barely seen anything that I think is worth a ramp (even at day 10). A couple of spells of ordinary winter weather but that's about it. Bizarrely I've never known a year with as much ramping on here. We live in strange times.

Maybe my location has added to the general feeling of 'meh' that I've had. Getting a bit too IMBY 

[carinthian]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm so glad you post @carinthian especially being that your so far out of the UK,yet you bring us some great updates from yourself and the team over there in a very level headed way. Your correct in pointing out we could be looking at some wintry action the backend of this week,and not to forget we have a fair amount of action these next few days also..Yet all im seeing on here is arguments over 10+ day output again,and how the SSW failed us...well there is still a secondary warming that took place last week to consider yet! Everyday we seem to see the 6Z suites go downhill before improving come the 12s...is it really worth the stress and arguments,when its clear as night and day...the models are struggling!

Just to add Matt H picked up on something more significant from GFS regarding a more meaningful split of the Vortex towards the end of its run...Now if that comes off,a very interesting later Winter period also. In the short-term lots of action to keep you going.

Hi Matt, as an born Cestrian I do take interest in the UK weather. I know how frustrating it can be  on snow watch. Half way through the winter , I think many north of Bristol to Hull have had a fairly interesting winter with some snow and frost coming along, although not sustained ( more so than a few other winter  from not long ago ) Of course the longer term models hardly verify, so I would just stick to 144t max based on years of weather watching. The snow computer we have access producing amazing results in its fine mesh mode out to 48 hours and provides out parameter results as the SE of Britain ( aprrox Newcastle to Cardiff  as a guide ) . I do try and relay these results with-in that more reliable time span. I think its noticeable that the UKMO in its model and forecasts have upped the snow risk in its latest forecasts, even potential now for further south. That trend, I hope continues in the evening out put. 

C

[StormyLincs]

40 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Day 10, and nary a sign of our seeing and deep, meaningful cold, any time soon . . . maybe time to add 'nailed on' to the swear filter?

    

 

Are we allowed to say ‘Nailed on mild’ on this forum or is that classed as swearing to coldies?

[Methuselah]

Just now, YellowSnow said:

Are we allowed to say ‘Nailed on mild’ on this forum or is that classed as swearing to coldies?

No... But it would get you tagged as either a WUM or a troll!

[SLEETY]

GfS op all over the place after the reliable,huge scatter and op one of the mildest after 7 days,clueless again.Around a 22c difference in the ensembles,stop running the computer would be the best outcome after 144 hours

Edited January 18, 2021 by SLEETY

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Jason M said:

Interesting though how within days of the SSW occurring the output has settled quickly. The SSW has the reputation of introducing chaos but oddly this one seems to have had the opposite impact with most of the output agreeing on the overall pattern. I'm sure others will disagree on this which is fine, but for me we are looking south now rather than north as for the UK everything hinges on getting rid of those heights over Spain.

I think this rings very true.  My impression is that the last week has been characterized my an expectation that the models would suddenly flip, but they seem to have remained pretty steadfast and instead been about as consistent  and accurate as they've been all winter. Naturally this has coincided with them not for once bringing us bitterly cold weather! 

I'm conscious however that the accuracy might only relate to the weather we end getting, not why we end up getting it.   If the UK was a hour-clock and each pattern was a minute, then 58 of them would give us weather that wasn't bitterly cold.  The models just have to hit one of those 58 minutes, not necessarily the right one, to appear to have been accurate!  

Edited January 18, 2021 by Timmytour

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Are we allowed to say ‘Nailed on mild’ on this forum or is that classed as swearing to coldies?

In all fairness...the term nailed on should be moved to the netweather dungeons.Nothing in weather is ever nailed on,whether it be mild...hot...cold or wet,even at 96hours,and at a range of 10 days we shouldn't even be using the phrase stuck on with blue tac..

Cheers @carinthian

[mushymanrob]

20 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I can see why others disagree with me. That said, at no point this year have i been excited about the prospects because whilst the synoptics looked good superficially, in practice it was virtually impossible to get cold enough air into the UK because we were always drawing air up from the Med so I would argue that potential was poor due to the positioning of the Russian high. Ironically if it were still sat there we are at the stage where cold air might have come round the southern flank as we have progressed into mid winter. Of course it now decides to get lost and we get Iberian high pressure instead.

I've felt like the Grinch this year because amongst all the ramping I've barely seen anything that I think is worth a ramp (even at day 10). A couple of spells of ordinary winter weather but that's about it. Bizarrely I've never known a year with as much ramping on here. We live in strange times.

Maybe my location has added to the general feeling of 'meh' that I've had. Getting a bit too IMBY 

Well im no coldie, i prefer mild, but do believe we need cold in winter if that makes sense, lol. So im the last person to ramp cold, but im a realist, or try to be. Based on many years of experience especially in the 80's, the pattern this winter has been very reminiscent of those great cold winters. We have not one but 2 SSWs (although talk about those seems to have gone quiet now) , plenty of northern blocking, cold pooling to our north, there has been 5 localised dumpings now, low CET, imho we are just waiting for that knockout blow .... if we fail this winter to get a proper nationwide cold spell, then this winter will go down as the one that promised so much but delivered so little.. frustratageddon!

[MAF]

12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

In all fairness...the term nailed on should be moved to the netweather dungeons.Nothing in weather is ever nailed on,whether it be mild...hot...cold or wet,even at 96hours,and at a range of 10 days we shouldn't even be using the phrase stuck on with blue tac..

Cheers @carinthian

maybe Paul should add it to the swear filter and then it would autocorrect to 'might possibly be nailed on'  

Mind you, i am beginning to think the word 'winter' should be confined to the swear filter too  

Edited January 18, 2021 by MAF

[legritter]

Well we may not have deep cold at the moment but we do have Storm Christoph named .and by the looks of it a threat of Snow further south with time ,but flooding a seriously to be taken warning .Fax charts to the ready ,take care gang and enjoy the charts , cheers .

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well im no coldie, i prefer mild, but do believe we need cold in winter if that makes sense, lol. So im the last person to ramp cold, but im a realist, or try to be. Based on many years of experience especially in the 80's, the pattern this winter has been very reminiscent of those great cold winters. We have not one but 2 SSWs (although talk about those seems to have gone quiet now) , plenty of northern blocking, cold pooling to our north, there has been 5 localised dumpings now, low CET, imho we are just waiting for that knockout blow .... if we fail this winter to get a proper nationwide cold spell, then this winter will go down as the one that promised so much but delivered so little.. frustratageddon!

Not sure we have had 2 actually, its a continuation of the same one, i certainly wouldn't rule out that occurrence happening before the end of winter though, first time i have said that in nearly 10 years of strat monitoring.

Edited January 18, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure we have had 2 actually, its a continuation of the same one, i certainly wouldn't rule out that occurrence happening before the end of winter though, first time i have said that in nearly 10 years of strat monitoring.

It wasn't 2 feb,your correct. It was a secondary warming event of the 1st one...But there are some signals of further warming,perhaps a split later...possibly!

 

[StormyLincs]

22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

No... But it would get you tagged as either a WUM or a troll!

Well if you’re allowed to have nailed on cold, then surely I can have nailed on mild. So here goes:

I think the mild is pretty much nailed today with little chance of cold. ( Let’s see if a bit of reverse psychology works here)

[nick sussex]

In the shorter term in terms of snow , late Wednesday into early hours of Thursday.

We have the occlusion moving east se but very slow in its progress , followed behind by some much colder upper air with a lowering freezing level .

This could allow a changeover to some snow as that colder air catches up with the front .

At the moment the highest risk would be the Midlands northwards , more especially with some elevation and away from windward coasts .

The key thing though is the speed of that occlusion , that needs to remain slow to allow for that colder air to catch up .

 

[goosey007]

7 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Well if you’re allowed to have nailed on cold, then surely I can have nailed on mild. So here goes:

I think the mild is pretty much nailed today with little chance of cold. ( Let’s see if a bit of reverse psychology works here)

Logically I think your more right to say nailed on Mild always a vastly easier route to this ...Damn this cold barren island! Grrrrr

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Well if you’re allowed to have nailed on cold, then surely I can have nailed on mild. So here goes:

I think the mild is pretty much nailed today with little chance of cold. ( Let’s see if a bit of reverse psychology works here)

You have a point here..If all on here spent there time searching for mild all winter,you can guarantee we would be stuck with cold most of the time.. it seems crazy and assumes the weather as emotions. But like many things in life...sometimes the harder you try or hope for something,the more elusive it becomes. Sometimes you just sit back..relax and say...what will be will be,and hey presto things come together. You can drive yourself crazy with worrying about certain outcomes, whether it be the weather or anything else in life..And it won't change a thing. Look how we all get stressed out over GFS and its 8 runs a day! If all pro forecasters hung there hats on every single run,they would spend all there days chasing their tales! 

If you were to spend more time making your analysis by comparing each run like for like...ie..every 0z each day,or 12z each day,things would be a little clearer.Yet many stress over each and every run,which I suppose can be understandable when your a weather geek. What I would say is save the stress for the 3-5 day output,and don't even fret beyond the 6 day output..volatility is key here,and its nigh on impossible for the model output to give high certainty beyond this time frame. The Atmosphere is far to volatile.. We have a punch drunk Vortex,and no Bartlett High,so its impossible to say we are going to be stuck in a rut of similar conditions..Weak Wstly winds and Jet stream mean we are subject to much change in our conditions.

The point of this story is...dont give up hope,especially in January..Not until the set up becomes more mobile,and that's if it even does.

 

[carinthian]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In the shorter term in terms of snow , late Wednesday into early hours of Thursday.

We have the occlusion moving east se but very slow in its progress , followed behind by some much colder upper air with a lowering freezing level .

This could allow a changeover to some snow as that colder air catches up with the front .

At the moment the highest risk would be the Midlands northwards , more especially with some elevation and away from windward coasts .

The key thing though is the speed of that occlusion , that needs to remain slow to allow for that colder air to catch up .

 

I am fairly sure that is what the Met Office computers will be showing, however the exact boundaries of the two air masses will still be subject to changes  even in the short term. Interesting week coming up for Blighty.

[StormyLincs]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You have a point here..If all on here spent there time searching for mild all winter,you can guarantee we would be stuck with cold most of the time.. it seems crazy and assumes the weather as emotions. But like many things in life...sometimes the harder you try or hope for something,the more elusive it becomes. Sometimes you just sit back..relax and say...what will be will be,and hey presto things come together. You can drive yourself crazy with worrying about certain outcomes, whether it be the weather or anything else in life..And it won't change a thing. Look how we all get stressed out over GFS and its 8 runs a day! If all pro forecasters hung there hats on every single run,they would spend all there days chasing their tales! 

If you were to spend more time making your analysis by comparing each run like for like...ie..every 0z each day,or 12z each day,things would be a little clearer.Yet many stress over each and every run,which I suppose can be understandable when your a weather geek. What I would say is save the stress for the 3-5 day output,and don't even fret beyond the 6 day output..volatility is key here,and its nigh on impossible for the model output to give high certainty beyond this time frame. The Atmosphere is far to volatile.. We have a punch drunk Vortex,and no Bartlett High,so its impossible to say we are going to be stuck in a rut of similar conditions..Weak Wstly winds and Jet stream mean we are subject to much change in our conditions.

The point of this story is...dont give up hope,especially in January..Not until the set up becomes more mobile,and that's if it even does.

 

To be quite honest, I’ve grown so weary at looking at model output this winter, I’ve now given up with it and now just have a quick glimpse in every 2 or 3 days. I’m really not all that bothered about the cold anymore these days, especially with the hindrance snow would cause to the vaccination programme. What I am very concerned about though is the amount of rain that might fall over the coming weeks. Rivers are full to the brim around here and fields are lying under water. I really don’t think it will take much now to cause serious flooding issues. With that in mind, at the moment I think I’d be very happy with a ‘nailed on’ dry, mild Bartlett. In fact I’ll start a new phrase here and call it an ‘oven ready Bartlett’

[MATTWOLVES 3]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In the shorter term in terms of snow , late Wednesday into early hours of Thursday.

We have the occlusion moving east se but very slow in its progress , followed behind by some much colder upper air with a lowering freezing level .

This could allow a changeover to some snow as that colder air catches up with the front .

At the moment the highest risk would be the Midlands northwards , more especially with some elevation and away from windward coasts .

The key thing though is the speed of that occlusion , that needs to remain slow to allow for that colder air to catch up .

 

You have piqued my interest Nick..that is one to watch for sure,if we  can get that feature to slow down we could be looking good. For now my excitement is growing,but not in a nailed on way,or a boom kind of way. But at least something to focus on later this week.

[sheikhy]

35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In the shorter term in terms of snow , late Wednesday into early hours of Thursday.

We have the occlusion moving east se but very slow in its progress , followed behind by some much colder upper air with a lowering freezing level .

This could allow a changeover to some snow as that colder air catches up with the front .

At the moment the highest risk would be the Midlands northwards , more especially with some elevation and away from windward coasts .

The key thing though is the speed of that occlusion , that needs to remain slow to allow for that colder air to catch up .

 

Latest ecm 06z backs up your thoughts!cold air across midlands and wales and the low is further south than the gfs as well!!could be some snow across areas mentioned above even if it is temporary!

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You have piqued my interest Nick..that is one to watch for sure,if we  can get that feature to slow down we could be looking good. For now my excitement is growing,but not in a nailed on way,or a boom kind of way. But at least something to focus on later this week.

If you take a look at the fax chart you can see how slow the progress is between the 48 hrs and 60 hrs mark . It’s marginal in terms of snow so best to keep expectations on the low side and the speed of the occlusion might change . 

[Battleground Snow]

A bit of good news - we are finally out of phase 3 and 4 and into cod with the MJO

It would be good if we could gain some amplitude if we do make it to 6 and 7 next week, however these forecasts haven't been very accurate of late so caution advised.

Got to admit the mid term 5-10 days is looking a bit dull at the moment. There is a colder cluster showing on the GEFS, but nothing to shout about at this stage.

 

[Man With Beard]

Perhaps this has been covered but ECM individual ensembles for Jan 30 - Feb 2 now highly favouring a milder solution for most, with flat run of Atlantic lows straight through the UK on circa 70% of runs. This would limit snow to high ground in the north, I'd think. A fair cluster still prefers the jet further south or more ridging to the west, but less than 30% can be put in this category.

[Purga]

SSW effects can take weeks to propagate down, in which case it could be February before we really see any effects showing up in the NWP. The second wind reversal has only just happened.

BTW the ECM clusters from the 00z run don't show real zonalty by Day 15 with signals for ridging somewhere to our west in about half the members.

 On the 06z ensembles it's mostly only the top handful of runs that offers anything really mild whilst the bottom sector delivers very cold conditions. 

The game still runs...

[phil nw.]

It looks like the GFS 06z run is almost a complete mild outlier after the 26th wrt ens.max 2m temperatures.

Around 5/6c warmer than the mean line.These for Warks.Other locations even quite far north show it as a mild run so we will see.

What is apparent now is good agreement for the cold dip days 3 to 7 then it's all down to how much influence the AH has on ridging the jet further north. 

As for the next few days the low and it's frontal systems across the middle this week will cause some interesting weather

Yes a lot of rain with this but quite a bit of snowfall north of that front as the colder air digs in.

It is worth keeping an eye on the weekend's developments as there may a secondary low show up running across the south/channel.Not sure at this stage if there will be very much precipitation involved but if there is with cold air and reasonable dewpoints in place then areas further south could get a surprise snow fall.Just a possibility at this stage.