Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

That would be in line with GEFS pert 20, by Thursday large parts of England would be buried

More likely to need an ark than a shovel in the South 

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

More likely to need an ark than a shovel in the South 

you being close to the river best thing to build

 

[Vikos]

 

 

 

Too soon?

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

More likely to need an ark than a shovel in the South 

There will be hose pipe bans issued in the south come summer......

[Griff]

Exceptionally obvious observation but some very cold to the north east

[Battleground Snow]

Slightly better in this area, or maybe I am seeing things....

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That cold pool in Scandi is important imo.  That storm won’t pass through, then we see the future follow up troughs getting shunted on more southerly track as they won’t be able to follow it’s track.  This then opens doors to future developments.

 BFTP

This is gaining traction

But this is just Thursday!....we must get severe warnings coming

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MJB]

 

168 h Snow across the UK

 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by MJB

[bluearmy]

the gefs stamps have updated at day 16 now - quite a lot of interesting options .....

[northwestsnow]

OMG GFS 18z is following EC LOL!!

[IDO]

Westerly (Atlantic) flow more progressive on the 18z:

12z>

See where this goes but no repeat of the 12z. Closer to the mean.

[northwestsnow]

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

OMG GFS 18z is following EC LOL!!

Whats new mate!!!ecm king of all the models and trumps all other models more often than not!!

[IDO]

Look at the jet, UK barrage of lows spinning off the trough to the west:

d8-d10>

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Whats new mate!!!ecm king of all the models and trumps all other models more often than not!!

What's not new is a 240 chart actually verifying , is ECM King ?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Look at the jet, UK barrage of lows spinning off the trough to the west:

d8-d10>

On a Southerly track.....

[MJB]

GFS 240

ECM 240

[IDO]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

On a Southerly track.....

That trough to the west is being emptied:

There must be a chance of height rises upstream?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wow, this isn’t going NE...i

Told ya

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

What's not new is a 240 chart actually verifying , is ECM King ?

Always mate !!!!a 240 hour chart wont verify on any model but picking up new trends especially in the mid to short term its ecm all the way!!!!again i say more often than not!!

[Roger J Smith]

Have a look at this analysis from 18z ...

The 1050 mb high north of Siberia has moved 17 deg west since 00z (142 to 125 E). Let's say that's a bit exaggerated by analysis error, and call it 10 deg in 18 hours -- that would bring it into the Kara Sea and near Franz Josef Land by late in the week. IIRC the 2018 beast from the east had its origins with high pressure moving southwest from Franz Josef Land. (for anyone who didn't know this, FJ Land is the cluster of islands east of Svalbard/Spitsbergen. It is Russian territory. Novaya Zemlya is the double island to the east of that closer to the Russian mainland. The New Siberian Islands are the archipelago just west of the current location of the high. 

Any acceleration of this high would be a big player especially if the Poles are right about the delayed effects of the SSW. 

(note to readers, every six hours this link is likely to update to most recent 6h analysis, next update will be new 00z position available by 0400h -- I am going to keep an eye on this anyway. But if you happen to read this after 0400h, you'll probably see the 00z chart. The 18z chart shows a high at 80N 125E)

Edited January 17, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Allseasons-Si]

All i see is runners into the base of the upper low,the boundery is all to play for as the MET say so

that low on Thursday should come with a name on it though as it is looking quite a storm and is deepening with every run,plenty of weather to digest over the coming week to ten days that's for sure

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

On a Southerly track.....

Ties in with Darren Bett's extended BBC forecast, however, not sure about the part where he says dry, can't see how with low heights over the UK that there wouldn't be some precipitation.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

All i see is runners into the base of the upper low,the boundery is all to play for as the MET say so

that low on Thursday should come with a name on it though as it is looking quite a storm and is deepening with every run,plenty of weather to digest over the coming week to ten days that's for sure

Ec op had gusts across e England up to 50/55 mph. The system deepened more as it moved into the North Sea so the strongest winds were offshore. They may decide not to name it but I can’t see why they wouldn’t if there is a risk of a storm surge down the North Sea ....

[BlackburnChris]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wow, this isn’t going NE...i

Told ya

 

BFTP

 

Are you drunk tonight ?? you seem extra excited haha .... I cant work out from that chart whats sending the low SE , looks like pv is in it's usual spot