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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

Is it really likely that the deep low will sit over us for 48+ hours in reality?

I have my doubts - although ties in with BA's views on not getting past the meridian!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo is a big upgrade for me Nick.

We can work with 144...

Trouble is 144 seems way into FI !

Definitely , overall it gives the chance of a second snow event and also the best day 6 chart .

The high is further east and some shortwave energy should disrupt se from the upstream troughing on day 7 .

I think my concern is day 5 into 6 . It does a Flash Gordon , seemingly about to meet his maker at the end of the episode but then miraculously when you tune in again he survives !

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Hotspur62 Seasoned

Hotspur62

Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Not cold at all unfortunately, however the cold air should move south over the following days 

spacer.png

Central and Eastern Europe very cold on that chart and the cooling continent will help us when we get our easterly!!
 

Joking aside looks a small swing back to nearly where we were 24 hours ago.The mayhem in the models continues and it will continue to do so for at least the next week,probably longer!!All good fun though

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

image.thumb.png.e02f31125b6b63897e3253b8f5a3379f.pngimage.thumb.png.eab8a241336d870b2fa1bc226032adcf.png 

GFS 12z is essentially the ECM 00z but with the omega block (of sorts) shifted a little east. That might move more in the way of cold air toward the UK but the low will need to shift east a bit too. Ideally southeast. 

The other issue is that the system contains Tm airmass rather than Pm (or even Arctic as per earlier runs). Compared to where we were a couple of days ago much poorer prospects now. 

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Penicuikblizzard Experienced

Penicuikblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
Posted
18 minutes ago, Singularity said:

image.thumb.png.d8690e8c5865db7aa8b9d825ee5df8a1.pngimage.thumb.png.cbf0c9d42c4bf41337cb1dea03ea7da0.png

Well then - this takes what we thought we knew and gives it a twist!

Less concentration of positive vorticity - it gets strung out between the troughs to the west and east. This causes the western trough to become negatively tilted which means that establishing an omega block (or at least trying to) becomes favoured more toward Iceland instead of Greenland.

So, I *think* this is a path toward some manner of northerly for 20th-21st, albeit not an especially cold one to begin with.

Looks like Turkey will have more chance of snow than we have based on those charts the bitter cold is now way to our east 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

image.thumb.png.6b4b14b7a975a8c45bc82111a57506ab.png

Let the next stage of 'Arctic cold chase 2020' begin...

Joking aside, this is an enormous adjustment from prior runs so has to be viewed with much skepticism.

On the other hand, the 00z ECM wasn't all that much different on day 8 so... who knows? 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

My mouth is slathering...

gfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.9a47d7cef4cc66b443478843610f16b9.png

but do i take it seriously,...NO!

good to see though after this morning's diabolical runs.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Overall so far tonight’s outputs add to the confusion .

In terms of the shorter term day 3 into 4 is where we could see more changes.

The models are struggling here because of the cold pool to the east .

Its a shame we don’t get the 6 hour steps in the UKMO because day 3 into 4 is where it disrupts a shortwave se . There looks like sufficient cold to the se to undercut any precip.

Much depends on how much of a slider occurs .

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

I don’t see any easterly to call it an upgrade ?

Ok, upgrade for coldies compared to the last few runs!! Since when did an Easterly come I to the equation of late? 

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
Just now, Singularity said:

image.thumb.png.6b4b14b7a975a8c45bc82111a57506ab.png

Let the next stage of 'Arctic cold chase 2020' begin...

Joking aside, this is an enormous adjustment from prior runs so has to be viewed with much skepticism.

On the other hand, the 00z ECM wasn't all that much different on day 8 so... who knows? 

The SSTs are promoting low heights west of Norway scuppering any chances of cold easterlies.

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And there she is upgrade 

B29A6F8B-5154-419C-898E-E61D5932D422.png

Not a single perturbation on the GEFS at that timeframe was as good as this one.
Pleasantly surprised about both GFS and UKMO.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Popular Post
Posted

12z GFS certainly a vast improvement later next week compared to the 06z, comparing Fri 22nd at noon 06z GFS vs 12z GFS below:

GFSOPEU06_222_1.thumb.png.36cbba9ae7627e1a02a1ea38251119c5.pngGFSOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.a1361d9814acdc913473fcffcdb4ea89.png

Chalk and cheese to the west.

We still have the problem on the 12z GFS op, despite the much improved Atlantic ridging, of the low close to the UK middle of next week taking getting past the Meridian with any gusto, it does eventually by Friday, but delays to getting the cold in well past day 7 are frustrating as it gives more time for things to go wrong elsewhere, i.e. upstream pattern.

Much closer in time more microscale synoptic uncertainty too, 12z UKMO, as mentioned, looks interesting with the surface trough / frontal system stalling and disrupting SE on Saturday, similar to tomorrow, whilst other models carry on with the surface trough eastward. The stalling will allow snow to be prolonged on eastern side of the frontal boundary. Models maybe underestimating the blocking potential of the cold surface high to the east.

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.f916ebb59d4f5836462d894fa4071d1f.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.e92d584664a3e2734d06724c512af2ce.png

all in all, a more upbeat set of runs so far this evening

 

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Hotspur62 Seasoned

Hotspur62

Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

What was the problem earlier (I'm kidding, don't message me)... 

 

gfsnh-1-216.png

Look how poor those uppers are in central northern Scandinavia!!couple of days ago they were -16 to -20 now they are 0 to -4!!!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

WAA making a run for it through the Arctic, great mid term. ENS support would be nice to see, crazy what a SSW can do to the weather computers brains!! 

7DB7B3CB-217C-44E1-BD4A-20089F52D000.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Overall so far tonight’s outputs add to the confusion .

In terms of the shorter term day 3 into 4 is where we could see more changes.

The models are struggling here because of the cold pool to the east .

Its a shame we don’t get the 6 hour steps in the UKMO because day 3 into 4 is where it disrupts a shortwave se . There looks like sufficient cold to the se to undercut any precip.

Much depends on how much of a slider occurs .

Does looks like a snow event moving through especially across england!!gfs not too far behind either!!maybe this is the snow that ukv was forecasting for saturday!!

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Blue max 90 Rookie

Blue max 90

Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

But it clearly is an upgrade for coldies?

Surely it is an upgrade, a step in the right direction in comparison to this mornings charts. Classic case of the gfs having a wobble then firming up on the pattern afterwards? ECM and GEFS will hopefully add some clarity... 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Hotspur62 said:

Look how poor those uppers are in central northern Scandinavia!!couple of days ago they were -16 to -20 now they are 0 to -4!!!

Yeap, I take your point that things can and will change, you know, for better and for worse.

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