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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

    Lots of uppers angst again today. 

    There are reasons why -8C would be more likely deliver this time, whereas it didn't last time (although uppers in the south east were generally a degree or so below -8C in the last spell in any event)

    However until the overall pattern is decided, it isn't really worth sweating over. I think it could be as late as Friday or Saturday until some sort of model consistency is achieved for next week.

     

    If we get a low stagnating over us that starts off on the cold side, it will likely only get colder over time at this time of year.

    I don't think snow chances can be written off for anyone, though in my locale it will always be marginal at best.. yet to see a flake of snow this winter.

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    so what is the point you are making feb?

    That its a similar pattern but yesterday it was more of a very shallow Atlantic ridge, it has massively increased in its Amplification over 24 hours, thats all, if a GEFS or EPS mean did that, people on here would say 'Useless Ensembles, whole suites flip about all the time'

    @Man Without Beard look at the Green lines, hugely stronger ridge.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton

    Towards the end of this article is giving me a hope for snow in the UK 🙂

     

    extreme-cold-winter-weather-forecast-eur
    WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

    Very cold weather will develop this week but trends are now turning into favorable winter weather and snowy periods next week into the rest of January 2021.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yesterday it showed a WNW, now it shows a straight Arctic Northerly.

    Here's yesterday's and the day before's

    image.thumb.png.0fe807328bbc2f0596ec7caa857e71e8.png

    image.thumb.png.d1a66f223dab8843785a89392bcd2033.png

    Compared with today

    image.thumb.png.8803db6592489620b76962bc98794b41.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    1 hour ago, carinthian said:

    The latest fax shows another correction westward of the front alignment on Thursday  . Looks like limited progress tomorrow. Snow risk increases on Thursday but in more central regions than earlier anticipated . Looks like a growing trend in the short term that could throw all present model runs beyond the end of the week out of the window.

    C

    fax48s.gif

    This post has intrigued me.  Carathian,,,

     It (probably you) suggests that the low developing over the central UK is going to change the pattern?

    Could it be that it is expected to deepen and possibly move SE and at the same time strengthen the Scandinavian high.!!

    That is my hopeful guess at any rate  from your heavily disguised statement. It would obviously render most of the current modelling useless. 

    The fact that you have posted the UK Fax chart which shows the low forming and the lobe of the Scandy high suddenly appearing looks a little different to the last weeks models. 

    ?????

    MIA

     

    Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON 18z T120, compared to 12z T126:

    C71D16E5-6BDE-442F-A5E9-9E525DAC6FA0.thumb.png.488c7639ca0a9acdbeda7c047c6e293d.png6C3FF600-94AF-4EF9-B662-A31B7EE11465.thumb.png.fde10d87ef405b17dbd2ff670720f9f8.png

    Looks sharper with the ridge but blows up the low N Scotland a bit more.  Worry is that might push it a bit further west.  

    Any road, on with the pub run...

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

    But it has been rock solid for over two weeks in suggesting that the overall 500 mb pattern is meridional. That gives a strong suggestion, over 2 weeks, that cold rather than mild weather will be the major factor. What it has not done is what the synoptic outputs have done and that is show differing ideas on the type of weather pretty much each day.

    Still we are all different, I've used them for years and find them much more stable than the 2x or 4x daily synoptic outputs.

    Also a bit puzzled about the direct northerly, where is that?

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    ICON 18z T120, compared to 12z T126:

    C71D16E5-6BDE-442F-A5E9-9E525DAC6FA0.thumb.png.488c7639ca0a9acdbeda7c047c6e293d.png6C3FF600-94AF-4EF9-B662-A31B7EE11465.thumb.png.fde10d87ef405b17dbd2ff670720f9f8.png

    Looks sharper with the ridge but blows up the low N Scotland a bit more.  Worry is that might push it a bit further west.  

    Anyone, on with the pub run...

     

    Indeed however that low blowing up and clearly fast might not be a bad thing means the lows won’t phase, all conjecture anyway the icon is useless let’s be honest. (Awaits the reminder of the one time it was right 😂)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

    But it has been rock solid for over two weeks in suggesting that the overall 500 mb pattern is meridional. That gives a strong suggestion, over 2 weeks, that cold rather than mild weather will be the major factor. What it has not done is what the synoptic outputs have done and that is show differing ideas on the type of weather pretty much each day.

    Still we are all different, I've used them for years and find them much more stable than the 2x or 4x daily synoptic outputs.

    John i totally agree, i would never argue against using them if i was a professional forecaster paid to get forecasts right, its just i think the ensembles are quicker to pick up on a change to cold (particularly the GEFS), that defined ridge was signposted on the GEFS a few days ago, but the amount of times that signal is then flattens on the ens and ends up zonal is countless so yes, professional forecasts - your method all day, looking for the slightest inkling of a chance of cold at D16, the more sensitive method will pick it up first.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    But it has been rock solid for over two weeks in suggesting that the overall 500 mb pattern is meridional. That gives a strong suggestion, over 2 weeks, that cold rather than mild weather will be the major factor. What it has not done is what the synoptic outputs have done and that is show differing ideas on the type of weather pretty much each day.

    Still we are all different, I've used them for years and find them much more stable than the 2x or 4x daily synoptic outputs.

    Yes I think the point here is that, using these NOAA charts, we haven't seen charts likely to result in SWlies or NElies over the past few days (whereas the odd NWP chart might suggest that was a possibility). It's always been N of W, and now it's become even more N than W.

    Overall, though, today's charts are showing a coming together in the D6-D10 range, which is good for confidence in the pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ICON 18z T120, compared to 12z T126:

    C71D16E5-6BDE-442F-A5E9-9E525DAC6FA0.thumb.png.488c7639ca0a9acdbeda7c047c6e293d.png6C3FF600-94AF-4EF9-B662-A31B7EE11465.thumb.png.fde10d87ef405b17dbd2ff670720f9f8.png

    Looks sharper with the ridge but blows up the low N Scotland a bit more.  Worry is that might push it a bit further west.  

    Any road, on with the pub run...

     

    The low north has more oomph, should hopefully push east faster allowing for a wider ridge behind.

    Shame it's the ICON...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    The low north has more oomph, should hopefully push east faster allowing for a wider ridge behind.

    Shame it's the ICON...

    Yep, and shame it only goes to T120, there’s only so much you can glean from such a run.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Also a bit puzzled about the direct northerly, where is that?

    I know I need to do more reading on this and correct me if I’m wrong but the green lines show where the upper air is coming from? Does this chart not show that the upper air is coming from the north and coming into the uk from the nw? TIA

    F008E5C3-BF54-4579-B3E9-A7A515A44D42.webp

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Also a bit puzzled about the direct northerly, where is that?

    Yes - true that actually, but  you can see the difference in the ridge though, that averaged out as a pressure pattern over 4 or 6 days is a big difference.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    Yep, and shame it only goes to T120, there’s only so much you can glean from such a run.  

    Tbf UKMO had the oomph, it's close with the phase but if it didn't maybe a stronger low would help push it east?

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    Evening peeps 😊

    Hope you all are well and safe. I must admit after reading through all the comments today It makes me come to a conclusion that one minute we are seeing something good on the horizon and the next minute there are comments saying this coming setup is not what we want. 

    I am no weather expert nor am I having a go at any of the comments, everyone's contribution is a pleasure to read and just adds on to the knowledge. However I do get the feeling that again we are looking at outcomes that are to happen away from the closer  reliable timescale. I really appreciate that charts more than 6 days away throw some kind of light on the overal pattern that is expected and they are not the precise layout of how the weather will play. It is all too easy to fall prey to these charts and get over excited. Also in the current setup things are changing faster than we think and it is the small changes that can make a difference in what way the weather will play out. So my rule of thumb is to stick to no more than 3 days ahead and whatever is beyond that to take with a pinch of salt.

    It seems that some of the mood in here this evening is that of a disheartened side. I myself living in NE London is waiting patiently to see the snow ,  but it's a waiting game, the current pattern on the models might not look pleasing but we just have to wait and see how things pan out once we get some cold in. 

    For those who feel a bit low today just like to look on the bright side time is still with us we still have 10 day  period charts times 6 which then will be 12th March 

    e.g. From Tomorrow 13th to  the 22nd count as one ten day period etc. So thinking how much can change in 10 days we still got 6 of these 10 day periods to go through till we get to 13th March. Sorry if this does not make sense but the point I am trying to get through is time is with us and a lot can still change in our favour.

    With that keep up the excellent posts hope all you and your families stay safe and fingers crossed we never know one of the coming ten day periods might just have something waiting for us.

    Which leaves me to lastly say

    THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES ❄️

    Stay safe

    regards 😊😊😊😊

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes - true that actually, but  you can see the difference in the ridge though, that averaged out as a pressure pattern over 4 or 6 days is a big difference.

    Apparently not feb ....the 6/10 is a blend of output from day 8 and the 8/14 from day 11. (And remember these are heights, not slp)

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Thankyou!

    Some of the bed wetting on here this evening is laughable.

    And thats coming from Net weathers number one bed wetter !!🤣

     

    I was going to say you can talk 🤣 all honesty though I think quite a few were burnt (including me) by the last cold spell so there is a lot of I need -10 uppers and dew points of -20 etc to be sure if anything does fall it is white even though that is not necessarily required 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    I know I need to do more reading on this and correct me if I’m wrong but the green lines show where the upper air is coming from? Does this chart not show that the upper air is coming from the north and coming into the uk from the nw? TIA

    F008E5C3-BF54-4579-B3E9-A7A515A44D42.webp 53.2 kB · 2 downloads

    On NOAA the green lines are the contour lines, and what you suggest is correct

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Para at 54 

    Another shift south

    Screenshot_20210112-215327.png

    Is it even gona make it to the midlands at this rate🤣

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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