Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

gfs p very good,and now MINUS  200 uppers appearing over svalbard,if that gets here,then  NORTH SEA freezing over 

Won't be long before the polar bears and penguins are on our doorstep!

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks like the MO have called this right all along, you cannot knock them, GEFS screams W-based -NAO and that screams battleground Central and Northern Britain.

[Froze were the Days]

Wow! sleety you're going to need some valium if this all goes ti*s up...strikes me you with a few others are getting a tad over excited.

Severe Siberian Icy blasts post has about summed it up.

[Daniel*]

Bugging me that EPS has gone even further in wrong direction. We need this on our side fast.

[IDO]

Solid set of d8 cold potential charts as you could expect:

Def a good trend and hopefully the 12z builds on this!

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like the MO have called this right all along, you cannot knock them, GEFS screams W-based -NAO and that screams battleground Central and Northern Britain.

Well yes your correct at that point at D8 but doesn't the synoptics evolve further after that? (which the ops of both GFS and to a degree ECM show this morning, if you believe)...a bit misleading.

[ALL ABOARD]

Since the SSW there has been good agreement in the upper levels of the atmosphere that we would see a part of the vortex drop into Europe. Therefore when this starts to show up on the models it then infact becomes a trend as not only the upper levels are showing it but the lower levels too. 

Case in point below. 

Yes they are all 240+ hour away, but there is a clear trend that could lead to substantial cold air and snow for the majority. 

If you disagree then you should offer valid alternative posts instead of having a go at those who choose to get excited about what the actual models are showing. 

Aslong as each individual provides evidence to thier posts then being the model output discussion thread it's valid. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Osbourne One-Nil
Practice what you preach!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm amazed...yesterday it was Sunday blues today its Monday morning Fever! You simply can't say something is over on the back of a few bad runs. The ECM is better for sure and we have a potential snow maker come next week...but as ever the models are struggling with the evolution. The cold air is now in place and it would be unfortunate if we could not tap into it.One thing looks sure though,this is not your average UK type winter set up.

Edit @feb1991blizzard if you chat with Marco P from the met,he will point out there is a massive degree of uncertainty regarding this cold,its tantalisingly close and we could easily tap into it.. on the other hand it could be Central and Northern areas that get the fireworks...Its going to be a difficult forecasting period.

Edited January 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mulzy]

20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean a slight improvement at 180

A little bit sharper into Greenland

Something to keep an eye is heights over Iberia - they are beginning to show up more in the ensemble suites.

As I said earlier we are a long way from “boom” charts.  Potential yes, boom no!

Edited January 11, 2021 by mulzy

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just a few brief comments, overnight GEFS these are the 850 temp anomalies from the mean  can see that cold moving from the NE, south westwards toward the UK, I would imagine there will be some of the ensembles which could get pretty close to bringing those seriously cold 850 hpa temperatures across the North Sea as we go through this week but a few points as I have said before we wouldn’t require that level of cold to get snowfall as this cold spell we have just had has proven and also it’s a bit to think what sort of temperatures are associated with that, this from the latest gfs p these are DAYTIME temperatures  mental, also just worth noting that it’s different to the BFTE pattern where that was the high that retrogressed from Scandinavia that was the big player whereas the modelling we are seeing here especially in terms of the uk (yes the ridging and higher pressure toward Greenland also have a role to play) but the key is the way the lower pressure and PV segment move which does hold a fair bit more risk than higher pressure controlling things but the lower pressure could result in more snowfall. 

[NewEra21]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well yes your correct at that point at D8 but doesn't the synoptics evolve further after that? (which the ops of both GFS and to a degree ECM show this morning, if you believe)...a bit misleading.

Yeah, would be more interesting for the 20th onwards. That's when things at present are looking like the cold arrives. At D8 the pattern is still evolving.

Edited January 11, 2021 by NewEra21

[sheikhy]

Control run shows how badly wrong it can go at 192 hours!!!!west based nao back on the menu guys as the mean shows at 192 hours!!!!got this horrible feeling we gona be searchin and searchin and these charts just wont come off!before you know it we are in february and we will have nothing!!!been through this plenty of times over the years!!!!wont be good for anyones mind set!!for the newbies please dont get drawn into what you viewing at day 9 or 10 cos i can almost guarantee what you see now on those days will stay there!!!!we need to see earlier upgrades between 120 and 144 hours to set the tone! But right now its shortwave galore!!

[Vikos]

EC 00z Scenarios

         

Edited January 11, 2021 by Vikos

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like the MO have called this right all along, you cannot knock them, GEFS screams W-based -NAO and that screams battleground Central and Northern Britain.

This doesn't show a West based -NAO though?

The issue for the South maybe down to the heights over Iberia and the arctic cold front not pushing as far South. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Control run shows how badly wrong it can go at 192 hours!!!!west based nao back on the menu guys as the mean shows at 192 hours!!!!got this horrible feeling we gona be searchin and searchin and these charts just wont come off!before you know it we are in february and we will have nothing!!!been through this plenty of times over the years!!!!wont be good for anyones mind set!!for the newbies please dont get drawn into what you viewing at day 9 or 10 cos i can almost guarantee what you see now on those days will stay there!!!!we need to see earlier upgrades between 120 and 144 hours to set the tone! But right now its shortwave galore!!

Aye, but improvement I think, control 00Z was very bad

[Battleground Snow]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Something to keep an eye is heights over Iberia - they are beginning to show up more in the ensemble suites.

As I said earlier we are a long way from “boom” charts.  Potential yes, boom no!

Agreed we need to proceed with caution.

At 240 it almost looks like a cut of high over Greenland. Heights in Iberia relent somewhat, but they may delay the initial cold especially for the south.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

This doesn't show a West based -NAO though?

The issue for the South maybe down to the heights over Iberia and the arctic cold front not pushing as far South. 

it screams a shift to west based though, although granted the 240 chart is decent, if not as good as the 0z suite, anyway i am more worried about the EPS collapse of the ridge at 240 than the GEFS west based -nao

And that can be what causes a West based -nao by squeezing the cold out into the Atlantic

 

[Scott Ingham]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Bugging me that EPS has gone even further in wrong direction. We need this on our side fast.

Looking at them temperatures, check precipitation (many spikes)

Check manchester or Sheffield. (A lot colder?) Precipitation spikes?

If the answer to all them questions is yes i would suggest they are maybe latching on to @feb1991blizzard previous posts of a potentially very snowy (for the midlands and me in yorkshire) pattern of west based nao and battleground.

Would be cruel down south and x rated for snow up north 

Its a strong possibility. I thought wed have a cut off greenland high moving to west based -NAO in discussions with Steve

[Loadsa2000]

Been a long time viewer (probably 15 years plus)

Quick question and a thought reference models

Do you think there will come a day where the models are 100% accurate?

If that would happen how boring this thread would be become.

I never post on here but fascinated how different people have different thoughts about the same models (that is apart from the few who just try to wind posters up)

[Stav]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Something to keep an eye is heights over Iberia - they are beginning to show up more in the ensemble suites.

As I said earlier we are a long way from “boom” charts.  Potential yes, boom no!

Question for the experts about the Iberian high. Will this definitely scupper strong cold and snow for the south-east. If so, how much does it need to weaken or move to allow us to have what we desire?

[mushymanrob]

Well this post wont be very popular, lol..

According the the NOAA charts, there is no sustained deep cold from the Northeastern quadrant in the next two weeks, although this could change of course.

There is a positive pressure anomaly over Greenland, and some ridging, There is a negative pressure anomaly over Europe along with some troughing. But the mean upper flow remains in the Northwest, so IMHO any of that cold to our Northeast isnt likely to be paying us a visit apart from transient blasts. So until/unless these charts shift to allow a prolonged flow from the North or Northeast, im not buying the deep freeze some runs suggest.

On the positive side (for cold) its not going to be mild either, its looking (normal) cold and unsettled to me.

 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Been a long time viewer (probably 15 years plus)

Quick question and a thought reference models

Do you think there will come a day where the models are 100% accurate?

If that would happen how boring this thread would be become.

I never post on here but fascinated how different people have different thoughts about the same models (that is apart from the few who just try to wind posters up)

Not 100%, the atmosphere is too chaotic, but improvements will continue to be made.

A 5 day forecast is now as accurate as a 1 day forecast 30-40 years ago. That's a massive leap. Even in my 20 years of model watching there have been huge improvements in understanding, especially in the stratosphere area.

[username home]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well this post wont be very popular, lol..

According the the NOAA charts, there is no sustained deep cold from the Northeastern quadrant in the next two weeks, although this could change of course.

There is a positive pressure anomaly over Greenland, and some ridging, There is a negative pressure anomaly over Europe along with some troughing. But the mean upper flow remains in the Northwest, so IMHO any of that cold to our Northeast isnt likely to be paying us a visit apart from transient blasts. So until/unless these charts shift to allow a prolonged flow from the North or Northeast, im not buying the deep freeze some runs suggest.

On the positive side (for cold) its not going to be mild either, its looking (normal) cold and unsettled to me.

 

yep. frustratingly it looks like chilly rain....

[MJB]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like the MO have called this right all along, you cannot knock them, GEFS screams W-based -NAO and that screams battleground Central and Northern Britain.

The MO in their updates have covered ever option going , they are no fools 

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, username home said:

yep. frustratingly it looks like chilly rain....

For The whole of the UK, that's fantastic map interpretation. 

Perhaps we should get past the present week first. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by winterof79