Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[winterof79]

23 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para is very snowy for many at 60-72 hours @sheikhy, crazy differences from the OP at that range

Even London on the mix

 

Government will get their wish of lowering drivers on roads

Edited January 12, 2021 by winterof79

[Battleground Snow]

Para looking wonderful here at 144, it's very like the ECM but a tad further east in the set up. We should get much better uppers with this as it runs on compared to the ECM

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

I am starting to question the charts you are looking at?


 

Ha..agree. It’s like some are waiting for a hurricane over Spain and North Africa to appear 

[Singularity]

 

Impressive run-to-run consistency from GFS, not that it necessarily means much without other models matching it closely.

The cut-off low is slightly more independent, which is a small but good adjustment to see.

Even this, though, is pushing the envelope of how far ahead it's worth worrying about such details.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

I am starting to question the charts you are looking at?


 

Heights are marginally lower over Europe

[warrenb]

The low near the Azores only has one place to go because of the heights over (Southern Europe), and that over us, this will back the high further west.

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

As we were a few weeks back with the trough stuck over us.

As others have responded, we are not sure what you’re looking at. The trough appears to be moving through the UK if you follow T+144 to T+198. Viz a viz it is not “stuck over us”????

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The low near the Azores only has one place to go because of the heights over (Southern Europe), and that over us, this will back the high further west.

is this a postive post Warrenb

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The low near the Azores only has one place to go because of the heights over (Southern Europe), and that over us, this will back the high further west.

Cant see that happening at T210 . Looks good . 

[SteveB]

Just now, TSNWK said:

is this a postive post Warrenb

Never, I don't think he knowns what positive is!

[feb1991blizzard]

Another FI cracker frigid cold run coming up here.

Trick now is we want to maintain the status quo with the ops in early (ish) timeframes but then get as many flatliners on the ensembles coming in the 200 (ish) range over the next few days.

[Tim Bland]

Nice improvement on GFSp 00z Vs 06z gets the cold in quicker ..

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, SteveB said:

Never, I don't think he knowns what positive is!

I nearly fell off my chair !

[Battleground Snow]

ECM v para for comparison

 

[warrenb]

Not really positive, the initial amplification is too far west, meaning with the reversal going on at the moment it can only go further west, with the trough over us or just to the east, this aids the push.

[frosty ground]

Just now, warrenb said:

Not really positive, the initial amplification is too far west, meaning with the reversal going on at the moment it can only go further west, with the trough over us or just to the east, this aids the push.

And yet the models don't show that.

[warrenb]

Just now, frosty ground said:

And yet the models don't show that.

We shall see.

[ICE COLD]

I really struggling to see what’s wrong with it @warrenb is looks a cracker . 

[Battleground Snow]

Pacific ridge storming into the Arctic here like advertised on the mean earlier... Could slice the vortex apart.

 

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

We shall see.

So you are basing your previous post on an assumption ?

[goosey007]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

We shall see.

Looks like we headed for a model off .......

[Tim Bland]

Bitterly cold air flooding south with widespread snow showers and look west for the blizzard ?  

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

As others have responded, we are not sure what you’re looking at. The trough appears to be moving through the UK if you follow T+144 to T+198. Viz a viz it is not “stuck over us”????

Looking for the end before irs begun. Not the only poster though. Each to their own. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Quarantine, obvious January wasn't going to be wet and windy, Feb the same, I don't think wet and windy, another good GFS in FI

[Methuselah]

Now, I think, is the time for getting more 'optimistic'... Potentially deepish cold (deeper than last weeks garbage, anyway?) predicted to arrive through days 8-10... We have crossed the event horizon formerly known as Day 10!!