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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    anyone else having trouble viewing wetterzentrale?

    yeah, seems to have crashed doesn't it  

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    In my experience GFS is pretty consistent on picking up the broad NH pattern but UKMO's short range modelling of shortwaves, troughs etc is more accurate which makes this mornings output a concern for any deep cold. If UKMO continues that approach on the 12z / 0z id know where I'd put my money ..

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales

    It's nice that we aren't losing the colder options in the morning runs anymore, a good sign I think personally. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    If anyone still interested in the short time frame then take a look at the latest icon!!moved to the fax chart at 54 hours!!infact it looks identical to the 60 hour fax chart👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    12 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    spacer.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    The best trending mean that coldies have had for many days.

    Greenland High very likely from about 19th. Op very close to the mean throughout.

    I'm I alone in being underwelmed with a mean and op that drifts down for 0 to -6 uppers from day 6 through to day 10 and this for northern England.  

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    I'm I alone in being underwelmed with a mean and op that drifts down for 0 to -6 uppers from day 6 through to day 10 and this for northern England.  

    No, I think your apathy is shared by many on here - until we get some run to run consistency on a solution nothing is settled - also feels like the landing zone for cold is constantly pushed back 24 th is is the new 20th ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey

    Getting there aren't we...still need that ukmo for me too. Just puts some extra nails into 'nailed on'....😉

     

    All this is irrelevant for my Surrey location it would seem atm...

     

    Still better placed than many other years! Onwards...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    For those of you worrying about the snaw charts etc, they really aint worth a fig.. im 5 miles inland and only 70m asl and this morning we have woken to snaw falling and settling that wasnt even shown on any model i remember seeing.. 

    When i first joined here there was a saying that got used often during winter months.

    "Get the cold in first, then the snaw will follow" and it looks to me that cold is coming, uppers always improve as the time comes closer and snaw can pop up without notice.

    Lets hope for further upgrades as the days tick down..

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    I'm I alone in being underwelmed with a mean and op that drifts down for 0 to -6 uppers from day 6 through to day 10 and this for northern England.  

    Nope. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC is dangerously close to going wrong at 144...

    You are a worrier NWS - chill out, you’ll give yourself a breakdown!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Icon shouldn't phase here at 114.

    120 from 00z also attached

    And the more I look at the ukmo from earlier I think it would still work out.

     

    iconnh-0-114 (3).png

    iconnh-0-120 (17).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Oh my - 00z is a very cold run - CET of about -3C for the final third of the month!!

    10 days away yet, so not likely to pan out quite like that, but would be a real kick in the teeth for the UK economy and vaccination programs. 

     

    Edited by Stu_London
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, Stu_London said:

    Oh my - 00z is a very cold run - CET of about -3C for the final third of the month!!

    10 days away yet but would be a real kick in the teeth for the UK economy and vaccination programs. 

     

    just viewed 18Z though! complete opposite was showing 14 degrees

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    25 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    If anyone still interested in the short time frame then take a look at the latest icon!!moved to the fax chart at 54 hours!!infact it looks identical to the 60 hour fax chart👀

    Yes a big correction compared to earlier.

    almost getting you @sheikhy

    iconeu_uk1-42-56-0.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-50-0.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-54-0.png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    just viewed 18Z though! complete opposite was showing 14 degrees

    yes just for fun at this point in time - far to distant in the future and too much run to run and ensemble volatility to take seriously at this stage. 

    I said FI was +96 a couple of days ago - its more like +72 now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton
    18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    If anyone still interested in the short time frame then take a look at the latest icon!!moved to the fax chart at 54 hours!!infact it looks identical to the 60 hour fax chart👀

    That front appears to be another 50 or so miles further west, so it's anyone's guess what and where what will fall at the moment, just remember what happened to that front 5 days ago over the north of England, it just froze when expected to drift south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    Still too dependant on phasing. Also, note how the nice charts are always at around 10 days, 5 days ago we were talking about around the 14th-15th, we are now talking about 20th-21st.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    1 minute ago, warrenb said:

    Still too dependant on phasing. Also, note how the nice charts are always at around 10 days, 5 days ago we were talking about around the 14th-15th, we are now talking about 20th-21st.

    I always thought it was the 20th that was earmarked as the potential landing point, 15 days after the first SSW.

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Still too dependant on phasing. Also, note how the nice charts are always at around 10 days, 5 days ago we were talking about around the 14th-15th, we are now talking about 20th-21st.

    Yep. I’ve already convinced myself it’s not happening this year. Then anything that comes along is a bonus 😀
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    That’s a cracking ECM 0z ensemble mean, especially medium / longer term..just gets colder and colder from the north with more and more snow potential!😜..charts probably not in correct order (back to front)🙃..I don’t care cos I’m so much excited..potentially!😍😉

    7DC8E1D8-0E2E-46EE-8134-BCBF02C63E27.thumb.gif.f0ccaf9fb45c3cd8b75fd0ca068bdecb.gif3492C544-98FD-4929-B6E1-DC8476C16A25.thumb.gif.5db1d6a465bd2c7bbff64d49e04de875.gif3BD19F4E-D95F-48DF-92C0-D0D2844F748A.thumb.gif.261c7d59d6d5a6756bd93730024e829e.gifA1D78B02-6917-49D7-885E-FC89726D5941.thumb.gif.59ef41964f4646e3e0a32d9a91878804.gif8EF727CF-0920-46FB-B137-D299AACB4906.thumb.gif.7c10d54968a8c065c83142d87fe01d53.gif455B5FC1-F1E8-4163-891D-9733BE1D4671.thumb.gif.4ac28672cdeb5cfa3c5d7edb7041242c.gif

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    6 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Still too dependant on phasing. Also, note how the nice charts are always at around 10 days, 5 days ago we were talking about around the 14th-15th, we are now talking about 20th-21st.

    Dont totally agree with this ....a number of members have also been saying 20th/21st Jan for proper cold to arrive before the weekend.....will say the UKMO is a worry in the semi reliable....but of course it is, we cant have a straight forward cold spell that all models agree on 6/7days out can we? wheres the fun in that! 😝

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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