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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
    29 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Quite simply FRIGID! With lots of snow on the way from multiple directions 👌

    gfsnh-0-294.png

    If we can get that black mass into the baltics and scandi and then advect it westwards with a nice scandi Iceland high. That would be the dream. Happening in January as well and not march. 

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    image.thumb.gif.c57cb3aa57bfba112a86b05126d25b10.gif
     

    Rainfall totals up to Friday morning, most of this falls during Wednesday and Thursday (especially the areas with the highest amounts). You can see the major risk for parts of Yorkshire and NE England in particular as you could easily see several inches of snow settling with elevation. Flooding may also be an issue underneath that stalling frontal system. Frankly for eastern areas it would be good to see snow because a combination of persistent moderate to heavy rain, a stiff south easterly wind and temperatures of just 2/3c is going to feel pretty horrid.

    Despite high pressure building in, it looks like it will remain cold at the surface for the end of the week. Further frontal snow events are possible before we potentially see a larger pattern change potentially highlighted for week 2, so it is further keeping an eye on the shorter range as well as seeing whether that Greenland high verifies.

    Yuk nothing worse than heavy rain and temps of 2 to 3 degrees.. might as well have 10 degrees. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    You believe wrong. It’s verifying a lot worse than GFs(p) and behind the GEM

    PS ECM is the top model according to the stats......

    E5CAB449-CEBB-42C2-A612-97FB99E9EC95.png

    Actually I’m pretty sure after day 5 the oldie GFS is performing better? So much for an upgrade.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff

    Balanced view - no more than 5 days out and thats 850s back colder than they are now and I wouldn’t exactly say it has been mild today. 
     

    some very cold uppers being sniffed out. The trend is a sharp nosedive in temps but by the weekend, will that drop continue or plateau?

    61CE1976-6C84-4F97-8F67-4D37A35BAD7C.jpeg

    A72D7065-7BC6-427F-8CA4-40E4BD1F1136.jpeg

    180B01CC-E2F7-48E1-ABD6-A2A3AD3A7BF3.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    4 hours ago, Cold Winter Night said:

     

    EC 2m temps at 240 😒

    EC-240-2mT 11jan12.png

    Why the sad face? That chart is indicating 2m temps of -4C to 0C at 12 noon?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    39 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    If this is putting lipstick on a pig.. 

    I want to also put a wig, a nice dress and take it out for dinner before putting a ring on it... 

    Stunning. 

    gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.fa5b35eaf5bd6d0280cab94cae57c79a.png

    It gets better and maybe the comment was a little too much I admit, but I am yet to be swayed, IMBYism getting to me here along with perhaps the lockdown but someone who lives in the SE and seeing all these comments regarding snow and good charts etc for 3 weeks only to be met with cold rain here... 

    I just don't want to see the cold go too far NW with myself stuck under a westerly influence, the prospect of a west based -NAO is very much there and something that many especially those in the south should be wary of and getting sucked into the hype of the thread. 

    While just a mean, the mean flow for the southern UK is westerly. Channel low are always a possibility, and much like my orignal comment are high risk, high reward.

    image.thumb.png.1a7141e9a5b1b80584cde3393934bcca.png image.thumb.png.cb63c1a5b318a3fa3f5c9c10390a7224.png

    It's been a good day don't get me wrong, the outlook is positive but before I would start dishing out the BOOM charts I would like to see heights to the south become eroded. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    48 minutes ago, GSP said:

    So many changes still run to run in the mid term.

    We went to bed on a muted note after a not so good GFS18z last night, only to be welcomed this morning by special looking charts.

    Feels a bit deja vu this evening.

    Yes, and I mentioned this on the other side. While there's certainly a fair bit of interest, there is STILL a lot of inconsistency; ECM/GFS doing their best hokey cokey dance steps (you put your left model in, your right model out...). If there's one thing we've learnt over the years it's to ignore the lack of model alignment at our peril. 144 will be the first big hurdle and then its baby steps from there - and I'm afraid that the child gate is still firmly in the locked position at the moment. 

    And for those already talking about a second phase warming, before we even know the outcome of the first...remember we've been here before. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    You believe wrong. It’s verifying a lot worse than GFs(p) and behind the GEM

    PS ECM is the top model according to the stats......

    E5CAB449-CEBB-42C2-A612-97FB99E9EC95.png

    C'mon, how many times have we spoken about this; they are all much of a muchness - one will outperform the other (marginally) only to have its statistical wings clipped by its competitor the next day. NAVGEM anyone? 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    17 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    It gets better and maybe the comment was a little too much I admit, but I am yet to be swayed, IMBYism getting to me here along with perhaps the lockdown but someone who lives in the SE and seeing all these comments regarding snow and good charts etc for 3 weeks only to be met with cold rain here... 

    I just don't want to see the cold go too far NW with myself stuck under a westerly influence, the prospect of a west based -NAO is very much there and something that many especially those in the south should be wary of and getting sucked into the hype of the thread. 

    While just a mean, the mean flow for the southern UK is westerly. Channel low are always a possibility, and much like my orignal comment are high risk, high reward.

    image.thumb.png.1a7141e9a5b1b80584cde3393934bcca.png image.thumb.png.cb63c1a5b318a3fa3f5c9c10390a7224.png

    It's been a good day don't get me wrong, the outlook is positive but before I would start dishing out the BOOM charts I would like to see heights to the south become eroded. 

    There’s plenty of proper cold being shown for all parts of the UK. Local details far from being resolved. Just follow the macro synoptic pattern for now at this range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    14 minutes ago, danm said:

    There’s plenty of proper cold being shown for all parts of the UK. Local details far from being resolved. Just follow the macro synoptic pattern for now at this range.

    Ofcourse, I completely understand, I am just highlighting things I want to see improve. We have been a few times this winter so don't want us to get too far ahead of ourselves. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    30 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Why the sad face? That chart is indicating 2m temps of -4C to 0C at 12 noon?!

    Indeed, it does. In Yorkshire, where you live.

    I live in Holland, in the 0-4C zone. Now, let me be clear, I am so winter starved that I'd rather take puddles of melting snow at 4C than get stuck in the 12C of last January.
    But the 30 yr average for January 21st here is about 5C at that time of the day, so having 0-4C in the heart of the Arctic attack is worthy of a sad face IMO. Continental Europe is at or above average in that chart.

    Good cold spells (2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2018 the most recent ones) bring ice days here, so that's my standard:
    No ice days = No cold spell.

    Anyway, soon a new round of model runs will come out, changing everything again, so who knows what improvements we will still see. Even this week is getting better (possibly even that ice day, says EPS!), so all hope is far from lost!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    ICON first out. Not good. Not good at all. 

    icon-0-153.png?12-00

     

    Yup.

    Dont want UKMO or EC looking like that!

    Horrible run.

    Was hoping for some upgrades and consistency.

    Let's see...

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
    8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    ICON first out. Not good. Not good at all. 

    icon-0-153.png?12-00

     

    Well the icon is a stinker. Its a weaker model so no need to panic just yet but goodness the mood in here will be terrible if it has sniffed a new trend. From a bitter nor easter to South westerly zephyrs 

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    If the GFS or UKMO are anything like that it's the beginning of the end really for prospects in the latter half of January in my opinion, but we'll see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    Just now, The Eagle said:

    If the GFS or UKMO are anything like that it's the beginning of the end really for prospects in the latter half of January in my opinion, but we'll see. 

    If the UKMO and ECM are then likely, but the GFS being like that wouldn’t be the beginning of the end. Plenty of solutions out their with things so finely balanced. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Ukmo at 144.

    Delays the cutoff but just about makes it. I was hoping this was already resolved, but it's still very uncertain. Icon is not what we want

    GFS is alot better at 120 than its 18z run

    Edit GFS at 144 added

    UN144-21 (16).gif

    gfsnh-0-120 (4).png

    gfsnh-0-144 (13).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    UKMO phases

    image.thumb.png.206bb3585fa78f473e56580bf7675c4f.png

    Upon closer inspection it’s hard to call, defo not the direction we want to be headed but it might scrape it

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    GFS may just about rescue it but the UKMO is not good. We don't want that shortwave pumped up like that, ditto the phasing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
    5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    UKMO phases

    image.thumb.png.206bb3585fa78f473e56580bf7675c4f.png

    Upon closer inspection it’s hard to call, defo not the direction we want to be headed but it might scrape it

    Yep it certainly does phase if the ecm follows and this is repeated tonight and tomorrow then its game over for January deep cold I think. Has the UK once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    GFS looks like it will rescue something. Impressive enough in to GL. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    GFS may just about rescue it but the UKMO is not good. We don't want that shortwave pumped up like that, ditto the phasing. 

    Ukmo is on a knife edge, too hard to call if it would phase, not much wiggle room for sure.

    Para is much different at 132 too. Going to be nervous for the ECM later and the EPS

     

    gfsnh-0-132 (4).png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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