Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[SteveB]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will that mean nothing to pump up the Greenland height in this run?

I would have thought it meant nothing stopping the high going straight up to Greenland.  

[XtremeUKWeather]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will that mean nothing to pump up the Greenland height in this run?

Amplifies faster !

[TSNWK]

Just now, SteveB said:

I would have thought it meant nothing stopping the high going straight up to Greenland.  

Yep.  Looks that way at 168

[Tim Bland]

00z Vs 06z not much in it

[nick sussex]

That low near the Azores needs watching . You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave moving se .

A better gap between both would increase chances .

As you can see we had that phasing here , this slows down the se momentum of the shortwave which needs to clear to the se or e of the UK. 

I’d say at this point the biggest danger to the evolution is this phasing if it happens even earlier as this then could see the coldest air heading sw to the west of the UK. 

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by nick sussex

[Kentspur]

Poor for the South/SE, great if you're in Scotland or the NE at this stage. Uppers less cold than the 0z at this stage anyway

Edited January 11, 2021 by Kentspur

[ALL ABOARD]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That low near the Azores needs watching . You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave moving se .

A better gap between both would increase chances .

I watched it thinking awh gosh... 

But by the time it gets here it's such a shallow feature it does not matter when the beast has already decided its heading this way. 

Could be one of them rare occasions that it can try and try and try but the house will fill with snow

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Poor for the South/SE, great if you're in the NE at this stage. Uppers less cold than the 0z at this stage anyway

Those heights over France need to do one!

[Kentspur]

Lower heights around Greenland 6z vs 0z higher heights S of France

[Djdazzle]

Some very misleading posts on here this morning, using the phrase "nailed on."

It's not even remotely close to being nailed on!

When we have cross-model agreement at T48, then you can pretty much say that.

I'm thinking about 30% chance of something severely cold. Some people need to get back into the real world, because there is still a lot of scatter, uncertainty and volatility.

[Day_9]

So absolutely great trends yesterday.  Yes there is a bit of scatter in there longer term but it’s well below the 30 year mean and so all they are now trying to settle on is how cold. Pub run went a bit wonky but the mean and op both remained below 30yr average.

some frigid uppers in there for sure but it would be unsurprising  for a mild outlier to come true......

[SLEETY]

22 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

I remember the greatest E'ly "that we never had" in Feb' 2006. Completely disappeared at T36 - I'm still having counselling for it.

lol,well I remember Easterly that got to 96 hours with around minus 15 uppers  with gfs ensembles looking good,then something happenend and all models flipped,and it was game over,cant remember the year?

So talking about nailed-on at the timeframe being shown is rather bullish.

With mild weather though,you can say nailed-on with much more certainty ,thats the UK climate unfortunately.

And this gfs run different now with cold slower to make progress.

Edited January 11, 2021 by SLEETY

[TEITS]

Wow at this mornings output although again I hope a cold spell as severe, prolonged does not occur. Any other winter then bring it on. Just to show how extreme the 0z GFS is look at the predicted temps for sicily. My family members in Palermo would be surprised with these temps.

 

 

 

[Howie]

The high pressure over South West Europe just doesn't want to quit, it stops the cold air coming South 

[That ECM]

Not as spectacular but the theme is good. On to the 12z’s

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

I watched it thinking awh gosh... 

But by the time it gets here it's such a shallow feature it does not matter when the beast has already decided its heading this way. 

Could be one of them rare occasions that it can try and try and try but the house will fill with snow

Phasing of energy is really only okay if this happens once the shortwave has cleared the UK . Bear in mind that the shallow feature here might not verify and might be deeper .

What we’re trying to avoid is a west based negative NAO .   Phasing issues at this point are a big hurdle .

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

The high pressure over South West Europe just doesn't want to quit, it stops the cold air coming South 

This is untrue. 

When you get to a pattern like this..

 

Them heights will dissappear as quickly as the snow I had last week. 

[winterof79]

Near term after the stalling front there is more interest depending on the track of this 

06z// following the theme. Somewhere is going to get pasted 

Edited January 11, 2021 by winterof79

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Not as spectacular but the theme is good. On to the 12z’s

Good to see those heights finally gone over France/Spain. Need to get those out of the way if we want to get any true cold in.

But overall pattern still looks good, and that's the main thing!

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not as spectacular but the theme is good. On to the 12z’s

06z suite tends to under amplify as I think blue mentioned

[mb018538]

Plenty of very cold air tucking in there. An Easterly/Northeasterly swing and look at all that cold air waiting to move in.

Edited January 11, 2021 by mb018538

[frosty ground]

GFSP has a slider feel to it. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Plenty of very cold air tucking in there.

Here >>

The Polar Vortex now collapsing, is set to release the Arctic Hounds for the United States and Europe, as we head for the second half of Winter 2020/2021

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

United States and Europe are in line for colder Winter weather dynamics, in the aftermath of the Polar Vortex breakdown in the stratosphere

 

[IDO]

So 10-days away for the south on this run to get the -8c uppers, which ties in with the last third of Jan:

More a mid-Atlantic high>ridge on this run, rather than Greenland ridge/high, though wedgy in Greenland. At this range variation on a theme is what we would expect, consistency still there and barring any shortwave spoilers within the more reliable, a solid cold pattern potential!

[Tim Bland]

GFSp looking good so far...