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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z looks decent enough to me at T168, indeed better than 6z, potential for the Greenland ridge to link with the arctic high even, which could unlock the whole freezing lot, just not yet is all given local conditions:

CE7CCBD4-EE1F-4A59-A263-4DC1FD73A783.thumb.png.433a23cfcc19c9f58d5627600073af16.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, warrenb said:

With the 528 line just off the Danish coast. High ground only if lucky for snow with that.

850-1000hpa temps just about ok in the far east of the country though, could be a suprise or two

21011400_1112.gif

Edited by Nicholas B
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

GFS, ECM & ICON all develop the shortwave at the S Tip of Greenland at 120, which prevents a clean injection of heights northwards. The GFS manages to get there with the blocking but blows up the Icelandic low and delays it moving east, as a result the UK ends up mild. UKMO/GEM is the pick of the bunch for me. 

Not really getting any closer to resolving this.

Any snow at the end of this week is a bonus as far as I’m concerned. Landing point for cold is around 20th, icon doesn’t go that far and ECM isn’t out that far yet? I’d also wager GFS is a mild outlier and in more interested in seeing the GFSp

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

Over the past few runs the GFS op had been on the coldest side of the ensembles, so it's no surprise we're seeing a dodgier run tonight. It had to come sooner or later. Not saying it's right or wrong, but just on balance it was coming sooner or later!

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM looks more like the GEM at 144h.

Not really, shortwave in ECM stopping the heights going north, even if they did, would be toppled by low coming out of US. Lobe of PV in US is further west in ECM stopping any form of sustainable heights into Greenland.

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

850-1000hpa temps just about ok though, could a suprise or two

21011400_1112.gif

Just 2 words for that. "Dew Points"

 

Edit: Sorry that sounds a bit harsh. Dew points are the problem with the 528 line that far away, the lowest level of the atmosphere is just not cold enough.

Edited by warrenb
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
Just now, warrenb said:

Just 2 words for that. "Dew Points"

ECM precip chart shows where it thinks the DPs are conducive   

D202A7C9-7425-4EDE-A776-A01A357EEA49.jpeg

2211BD36-0CD7-485F-B0F6-1960AE51DD9D.jpeg

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
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Posted (edited)

Looks good to me ??‍♂️

B3F006B3-6393-4802-955F-285033988DEB.gif
 

compared to 00z ....

DFA60B0E-3607-4916-8CF7-61E21C29841C.thumb.gif.0587698bba3e2ba0001a8b5564f6f738.gif

Edited by Tim Bland
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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Just 2 words for that. "Dew Points"

Yep again could be suprise or two, alot will probably depend on intensity. I know for me in Lancashire its a wet old day

21011400_1112-1.gif

Edited by Nicholas B
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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Looks good to me ??‍♂️

B3F006B3-6393-4802-955F-285033988DEB.gif

What you don't want to happen is the 2 lows over the US to phase, because if they do, then we have a toppler.

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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted
Just now, Nicholas B said:

Yep again could be suprise or two

21011400_1112-1.gif

models still trying to get a handle on the SSW

 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jamboperth11 said:

Where can I find these charts so I can see East Scotland? 

Looks like rain on The coast and snow >50 miles inland 

5A53996F-0322-4737-B7AC-B1803BACB93F.jpeg

2FFF4EFA-A6EA-49B0-ADF9-066F4F427630.jpeg

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, Nicholas B said:

Yep again could be suprise or two

21011400_1112-1.gif

Down here last week we had dew points of +1 and 850's of around -7, rained for 2.5 days.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

ECM 168 is a beaut, why is it they can never just agree? The ECM is now showing more of the core heights to our south being dragged west whilst the GFS has gone the other way. Models are wind ups I swear

2F8AE917-8F7E-497E-A353-9D49991F40C4.gif

Edited by Weathizard
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM 12z looks fantastic at t192.

477A73ED-3A17-4295-ADD9-4638F64CF556.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Not really, shortwave in ECM stopping the heights going north, even if they did, would be toppled by low coming out of US. Lobe of PV in US is further west in ECM stopping any form of sustainable heights into Greenland.

C0B2E84D-DEAA-4851-BA83-31A23596FFDF.png

Edited by That ECM
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