Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

GFS should be on the way soon:

 

I hope that that 'soon' is nothing like the 'Spurs winning the League' 'soon'?

[Roger J Smith]

I can see the GFS run on a different platform, it is a partial downgrade with a less robust cold spell, but not a reversal.

[Paul]

Just now, General Cluster said:

I hope that that 'soon' is nothing like the 'Spurs winning the League' 'soon'?

Yep, absolutely should be out before the end of the century. 

[Tim Bland]

GEM is. A gem ! 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Roger J Smith said:

I can see the GFS run on a different platform, it is a partial downgrade with a less robust cold spell, but not a reversal.

Could you be kind enough to post the link?

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I can see the GFS run on a different platform, it is a partial downgrade with a less robust cold spell, but not a reversal.

Oh.. I'll come back for the ECM then  that feeling when you spend all day avoiding the world so that you watch your team on MOTD only for it be slipped out that it was a 0-0 

seriously was that for both GFS v15 and Para v16

Edited January 11, 2021 by TSNWK

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

I can see the GFS run on a different platform, it is a partial downgrade with a less robust cold spell, but not a reversal.

I don't understand if the whole run is delayed it cannot be viewed elsewhere?

[Met4Cast]

The GEM is living up to it's name today & is a complete gem. No phasing, good amplification northwards and a vortex chunk dropping south to the east of the UK. ICON is an example of how this pattern could go wrong however. 

[MJB]

Yet again for the 1,0000000th time wait for the ENS before coming to any conclusion 

Edited January 11, 2021 by MJB

[Roger J Smith]

Link is to NWS home page 

 

Model Guidance: Cycles and Products

MAG.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[carinthian]

Evening, I must admit that I was expecting deeper troughing into British Isles and Europe based on the previous runs ( UKMO ).  Looks a bit too much westerly on this run and born out by higher upper temps. Maybe the second wave will develop and engage the real cold air  to push down. Could all change again in the morning . !

 C

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GEM is living up to it's name today & is a complete gem. No phasing, good amplification northwards and a vortex chunk dropping south to the east of the UK. ICON is an example of how this pattern could go wrong however. 

Genuine question, is this quite short lived and topples? Ta

[sebastiaan1973]

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Genuine question, is this quite short lived and topples? Ta

With pressure this low across Europe it looks quite dug in to me...at least a 7 day cold spell ..

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GEM is living up to it's name today & is a complete gem. No phasing, good amplification northwards and a vortex chunk dropping south to the east of the UK. ICON is an example of how this pattern could go wrong however. 

It's a shame there's nae a 'BS' model... I'll get my coat!

[Tom Jarvis]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge UK view now loaded, looks great for Eastern areas!

For everywhere except the southeast. Sorry for the imby but not seen any falling snow for Ages but how much of a shift do we need for the south east to get in on the action? 

[Roger J Smith]

It's almost totally out at my link, 324h has a battleground scenario that looks like Midlands snow and south coast rain. Before that, it just eases into the cold spell a bit more cautiously than previous GFS runs, would say it's like 2-3 C milder on average through the period days 8 to 15, but well below normal. The low pressure in eastern North Sea into Baltic region plays a more prominent role. It takes longer for any synoptic scale snowfall (in the main cold period) to develop. A pessimist might say it's just one turn of the dial removed from going back to zonality, but an optimist might say, if this is the worst downgrade we're going to have, then future runs will probably return to the warpath. 

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's Sunday's 12Z.

Not sure what you mean. The run could change in the morning.

C

[Mapantz]

Just now, carinthian said:

Not sure what you mean. The run could change in the morning.

C

lol forget that, the delayed GFS is getting me confused. You posted the UKMO.. 

[Nick F]

From Roger's link, it looks like the 12z GFS cranks up the Atlantic jet in FI, after a brief cold shot from the N and NE, as I speculated could happen, but enough southerly track to the jet to bring some interesting battleground snow events almost anywhere with cold air in place.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Nick F

[bradymk]

Although the whole of the GEM run is great. It has quite a few snow opportunities before Sat for central/eastern areas and also for more southern central areas Friday morning.

Thursday night/Fri morning.

Saturday morning

[Kasim Awan]

GFS 12Z for 207h and 216h so 19th / 20th.

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

From Roger's link, it looks like the 12z GFS cranks up the Atlantic jet in FI, after a brief cold shot from the N and NE, as I speculated could happen, but enough southerly track to the jet to bring some interesting battleground snow events almost anywhere with cold air in place.

Hello, are we talkin both GFS v15 and Para v16 or just one - be nice to have one run to view on  a Lockdown Monday without Spoliers

[XtremeUKWeather]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS 12Z for 207h and 216h so 19th / 20th.

This is so much harder to read lmao, but im assuming thats a low acros the UK and a high in the atlantic,

[Vikos]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS 12Z for 207h and 216h so 19th / 20th.

Adding +252h 850ht