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Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?


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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    36 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Ukmo looks good to me at 144!

    Cut off nicely and ridge about to head up

    UN144-21 (13).gif

    Still got the good ol' Iberian heights stuck there though...UKMO very similar to ECM 0z at that time.

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    I can’t believe I’ve read 5 pages of weather there will be a Greenland high or not. With the propagation of the SSW, we have certainly seen an early divergence in the trop modelling. And this we

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The GEM also getting there at 180...

    gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.c67628e85d14e519cbffd9ddbabac1e6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Sods law that as soon as GFS comes on board the GFSp jumps ship due to that random small low south of Greenland.
     

    Remember though the GFS 06z was a warm Outlier so we expected this run.   I suspect GFSp is an outlier now...shame we can’t see it’s ensembles.   Even this run shows some interest though !

    1A9F3E20-91D3-4299-953E-2BB21533FACA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    GFS shows front stalking and turning to Snow on Friday. Not as much as ECM as the front fizzles in situ...

    22C7CAA0-CD1C-4E4B-B701-AD6076F49B60.png

    So does the GEM:

    image.thumb.png.92549cb0d60fbda18514eb7c62c49708.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Nice blizzard on the op here

     

    gfsnh-2-282.png

    I think this has been modelled for around there, off and on, for a few days recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Still got the good ol' Iberian heights stuck there though...UKMO very similar to ECM 0z at that time.

    The UKMO is awful to be honest - miles apart from the GFS!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    IF the gfs was to be correct someone is going to get plastered with snow big time from the 20th>

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The problem with the current evolution is the risk of a west based negative NAO .

    Ironically the colder the earlier timeframe as in some sourcing of the flow from the east the more danger of that happening because the drop down point of low pressure to the nw will be further west .

    You then need a series of steps to happen at the right time so too much amplitude at the wrong time v not enough etc .

    There is certainly potential for an interesting few weeks of weather but there is by no means a stress free route to that .

    Do you try  and bank more earlier cold or do you do go for the Greenland block much later on .

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Errrr... Shannon has entered the building

    image.thumb.png.f60906ab1544227993bcab6cb7513825.png

     

    image.thumb.png.11b3e6d5ce677b5680e591488d19e514.png

     

     

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    whole country just about taking a pasting on this run

    image.thumb.png.11abe9c0ba434155332a7e778722fc8f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Scenes like Madrid this week could be coming to London soon....

    532123F9-A0DE-47ED-8E2D-521301BE496B.png

    21FEC252-A25C-4E43-929B-D016284EC167.png

    660A29BE-BBBC-468B-9127-44CD9023EE30.png

    B988D7F7-D374-40C3-83B4-CF925CB4573E.png

    1/1000000 chance of that happening

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    Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

    The last 3rd of January could be very interesting in terms of cold. For me the most important aspect of this transition to very cold is the low coming up from the south west. This will not only bring a lot of snow to the midlands north initially as it under cuts the cold air, but will also strengthen the north-easterly feed and bring it further south. That low will be the proper start and should be seen as the feature that drags the deep cold over the line (south coast)! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The GEM also getting there at 180...

    gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.c67628e85d14e519cbffd9ddbabac1e6.png

    GEM and UKMO at +144h not entirely unlike, especially near Labrador, where the new ridging takes off. GEM at the later timeframes might therefore give some clues about the direction UKMO would have taken.

     

    GEM-144 10jan12.png

    UK-144 10jan12.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Here’s the Ukmo 12h T+144 hours..erm..erm..yeah..ach, I’ve seen worse, but then..I’ve seen better..ach..why do I bother?:drunk-emoji:😁

    2DDDDB66-2A5D-4DE8-926C-1086BFC7214D.thumb.gif.67259016ce83dfb024bf337f6e7aa59e.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

    GFS12 is a bank, me thinks!

    Doubt it will come off anything close to this, but one winter lover can dream......... 😄

    Screenshot 2021-01-10 at 16.50.35.png

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Wait until the 3. warming splits (terminates) the PV... that will be an epic end of January...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Keep an eye on the short term as well folks!!ukmo pushes things slightly further west between 72 and 96 hours compared to the 00z run!!!hopefully ecm does the same!!!some peeps wont have to wait till day 10 to see snow if this carries on!could be more day 3 to 5!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The UKMO is awful to be honest - miles apart from the GFS!

    Only time will tell...

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The GEM at 240,...😤

    gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.a5449be1cc558ddc074f19c1da3214a1.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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