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Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?


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Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    Just now, Sweatyman said:

    Birmingham eastwards perhaps Thurs evening?

    Given the current output yes - however this front is on the northern side of the low so west adjustments possible in next few hours. 

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    I can’t believe I’ve read 5 pages of weather there will be a Greenland high or not. With the propagation of the SSW, we have certainly seen an early divergence in the trop modelling. And this we

    We would much rather people use the ignore facility than negatively respond to posts they don't like, for sure.  But I will add, we have absolutely no plans to put an age limit on this or any thr

    Sorry but I don’t agree with this. There are many young people, including myself, that enjoy contributing to this thread due to our love of weather and model watching. Dismissing people’s posts as ‘no

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent

    Is it a Greenland ridge? A Greenland wedge? A surface Greenland High? A high Greenland high? Runs..... Joking aside, they don't look too bad.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GEFS 18z mean is an upgrade with more ridging into Greenland.

    12z:

    E67256E2-CF18-40BB-9822-26379E44D1D9.thumb.png.5ce20ee47c74a966e0b9dea9fa922ed8.png

    18z:

    71649548-5191-438E-AFBD-BBAF3F92BB4E.thumb.png.890d2daff07d0c870faced6805b577ec.png

     

    Didn’t see that coming at all after the op run to be honest, this has westward corrections written all over it this week coming the warm front could stall on the England wales border at this rate come Thursday it’s happened before a certain January 2013 event comes to mind 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

    Didn’t go through the 18z run.. taking it from how Twitter is reacting? It’s jumped onto ECMs back?

    any support in the ensembles?

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    10 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Didn’t go through the 18z run.. taking it from how Twitter is reacting? It’s jumped onto ECMs back?

    any support in the ensembles?

    GEFS look good IMO up to 240 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I don't care if its a Greenland ridge,an alaskan ridge,an outer Mongolian ridge,or a ridge in the Black Hole of Calcutta....its a ridge...and the Vortex is completely displaced from the Western side...🤣

    gensnh-31-1-192.png

    gensnh-31-1-252.png

    Displaced vortex but we’ve been stung so many times by the residual energy left in the exact area it’s being modelled.

    Lets hope this time our ticket to the Siberian express is valid, the ECM having too much energy going over the top as we’ve seen so many times in the past worries me.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Remember saying last week, I’ve seen models struggling to conclude what will happen 72-96hrs out. It’s happening right now. No point in even batting an eyelid at day 10 and beyond at the moment. The focus now lies in that low heading down the Norwegian Sea, and the heights to our NE, and if we can bring in a flash easterly to turn that front into a snow fest! 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    35 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GEFS 18z mean is an upgrade with more ridging into Greenland.

    12z:

    E67256E2-CF18-40BB-9822-26379E44D1D9.thumb.png.5ce20ee47c74a966e0b9dea9fa922ed8.png

    18z:

    71649548-5191-438E-AFBD-BBAF3F92BB4E.thumb.png.890d2daff07d0c870faced6805b577ec.png

     

    Well this tells its own story.

    Gefs if anything is firming up on this now

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Well this tells its own story.

    Gefs if anything is firming up on this now

    GFS and GEFS moving towards a solution whilst the ECM much less into it, what could possibly go wrong 😂 

    Meanwhile, the GFS control is about to go full Kim Jong Un

     

    2DB685BD-7B8E-4C23-B977-83196777C576.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary

    Some important changes medium term run to run leaving many options still on the table.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    GFS and GEFS moving towards a solution whilst the ECM much less into it, what could possibly go wrong 😂 

    Meanwhile, the GFS control is about to go full Kim Jong Un

     

    2DB685BD-7B8E-4C23-B977-83196777C576.png

    I think i have covered why I like GFS in these scenarios with Steve earlier 😂 but needless to say its not as far fetched as you may think.

    @Kasim Awan

    What was the period the GFS nailed the ECM with greenie heights this year when i had the same debate with you over GFS being superior in the north atlantic?

    Its happened once already this winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    I think i have covered why I like GFS in these scenarios with Steve earlier 😂 but needless to say its not as far fetched as you may think.

    @Kasim Awan

    What was the period the GFS nailed the ECM with greenie heights this year when i had the same debate with you over GFS being superior in the north atlantic?

    Its happened once already this winter

    The big win of GFS over ECM and UKMO in December was about trop stuff, the SSW hadn’t happened then, now I’m not so sure, things are a bit more 3 dimensional!!  So you would look to ECM, GFS // to have the best handle on it, UKMO too, but it only goes to T144.  I think it is very uncertain but if you have a decent prior (Bayesian term) in your mind of where this is going, I wouldn’t be too worried about today’s output. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    The big win of GFS over ECM and UKMO in December was about trop stuff, the SSW hadn’t happened then, now I’m not so sure, things are a bit more 3 dimensional!!  So you would look to ECM, GFS // to have the best handle on it, UKMO too, but it only goes to T144.  I think it is very uncertain but if you have a decent prior (Bayesian term) in your mind of where this is going, I wouldn’t be too worried about today’s output. 

    Yeah it was driven by high momentum and an mojo phase on top of a mountain torque but it still involved amplification in the atlantic and phasing of lows in america.

    Its modelling of the lows in america that gfs is king at

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    The big win of GFS over ECM and UKMO in December was about trop stuff, the SSW hadn’t happened then, now I’m not so sure, things are a bit more 3 dimensional!!  So you would look to ECM, GFS // to have the best handle on it, UKMO too, but it only goes to T144.  I think it is very uncertain but if you have a decent prior (Bayesian term) in your mind of where this is going, I wouldn’t be too worried about today’s output. 

    I’ve found it very amusing that the collapse of the high shown on the ECM is down to a low pressure system that is currently in the Pacific Ocean. I would not be worrying yet at all! How it behaves over the US will give us a better idea. That is still 3 to 4 days away yet! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Yeah it was driven by high momentum and an mojo phase on top of a mountain torque but it still involved amplification in the atlantic and phasing of lows in america.

    Its modelling of the lows in america that gfs is king at

    Yes, and if you look at America now you will see the GFS has a better handling on the low - the ECM is alone with the Michigan low at 120 hours. Will find the charts for it, the GFS was predicting strong Greenland amplification & the ECM / UKMO a "flat" pattern around Xmas, the ECM / UKMO switched to the GFS on one 00z suite. 

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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)

    Ugh!! I've gone from feeling extremely optimistic late December about a decent cold and snowy Jan to slowly becoming more and more pessimistic as we move through this month...it's now the 11th and still huge uncertainty in the models remains and I've now noticed we might not see benefits of SSW until beginning of Feb! .....think I'll take a break and come back in a few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    6 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

    Ugh!! I've gone from feeling extremely optimistic late December about a decent cold and snowy Jan to slowly becoming more and more pessimistic as we move through this month...it's now the 11th and still huge uncertainty in the models remains and I've now noticed we might not see benefits of SSW until beginning of Feb! .....think I'll take a break and come back in a few days.

    No offense, but we could easily manage without a Bartlett high right now. Come back in mid March 🤣

    joking aside I know what you mean but it can all change quickly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Allesley
  • Location: Allesley
    2 hours ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GEFS 18z mean is an upgrade with more ridging into Greenland.

    12z:

    E67256E2-CF18-40BB-9822-26379E44D1D9.thumb.png.5ce20ee47c74a966e0b9dea9fa922ed8.png

    18z:

    71649548-5191-438E-AFBD-BBAF3F92BB4E.thumb.png.890d2daff07d0c870faced6805b577ec.png

     

    Could you please explain what "upgrade" means on the 18z GEFZ weather model compared to the earlier version? Is it using new technology or something? Thank you. 

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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