Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[bluearmy]

I’m finding both the 18z op and para v unconvincing 

[Jason M]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

You know that thing that penguins do with their eggs?  GFS T258:

And what follows...

Cook them with the inevitable blow torch southerly that's about to be shown on 18Z GFS in FI?

Joking aside, this run was hinted at across the 12z ensembles as the cold air struggles to get south due to it all being too west based. Too far out to be worried at the moment though.

[geordiekev]

Sorry, but from history, whenever a cold spell has hit Southern Europe the models always tend to overplay the expected evolution from the one that plays out.

Not sure I place much trust in the models just playing out the normal West to East evolution in current scenario 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

What a run and trend it’s becoming. The initial early cold to the east keeps on gradually getting shunted closer in the mid time frames. 

After that, anyone else getting that dauntingly exciting feeling watching that super cold pool over Siberia buzzsawing its way Westwards towards scandi!? This is madness. 

To me, it looks like there is no stopping it towards last third of month. It's like a freight train speeding down the track.

[Griff]

Beautiful demonstration by both gfs and // this evening on what I'd prefer not to see develop. Gulp.. 

I'm grateful tomorrow will be different (maybe)

Alas, waffle , High risk, High reward

Edited January 9, 2021 by Griff

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I’m finding both the 18z op and para v unconvincing 

Yes agree re the // this at T216 looks a total mess, very unlikely to verify:

[DEYS(Kent)]

The real cold just isn’t heading south over the UK. (Apart from northern most parts). This is a trend that keeps occurring, run after run..

Edited January 9, 2021 by DEYS(Kent)

[Ice Day]

Ignore the UK for just one moment, just look at the NHP.  Just incredible profile

This is what SSW's do to models out in FI.  This WILL NOT be the final outcome, but show quite well how we can be optimistic going into mid January.  

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

That low in the Atlantic on the gfs 18z might just angle correctly to bring those seriously cold 850s in this time let’s see 

[damianslaw]

On 07/01/2021 at 21:31, Man Without Beard said:

 

 

A few posts have used the word 'messy', a good description of the reliable timeframe outlook. A bit of a battle between the atlantic and colder polar airmasses in the coming days. Atlantic looking weak still, and the polar air looks like getting the upper hand again.. All models are consistently showing an arctic high developing towards end of the coming week, and it is this feature that looks like becoming the dominant force. Its influence stretching the PV westwards to NW Russia, and all the while forcing down on Greenland.

A weak atlantic is quickly going to come unstuck, sent packing southwards as we see heights build to the north, we are not talking 10 days away, 6-7 day timeframe, still just outside the reliable, but the signal is for this theme to be maintained in tomorrow's runs..

After a fortnight where the atlantic has been blocked and we've endured below average temperatures, a few days coming up of a sea-saw between something milder at times (not especially so) and colder for the north, before the cold makes its presence felt again. On this occasion it will most likely quickly upgrade to very cold..

[Jason M]

Interestingly, by 288 its so extremely west based that we might get something from the East down the line anyway!!

[sheikhy]

Genuine question!!!!is there any chance we should be looking east between 144 and 216 hours and maybe even further on just incase a stronger scandi high pops up instead?

[Battleground Snow]

If you blended ECM and GFS output at 240 you would get that -40 pool heading directly for the UK. We are not going to know the final outcome of where the ridge establishes (if it even does) for a couple of days yet. Keep the faith

[XtremeUKWeather]

North? COLD 

East? COLD

 

[danm]

The trend towards the last third of the month still looks excellent, especially after the ECM mean. There is one thing we need shot of though as we progress to that point and it’s the heights over Southern Europe. The excellent NH profile being shown up on many Op runs recently need a shunt southwards. Hopefully that will be resolved. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Winter '79 run. Somewhere would get buried, dependent where boundary set up.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

North? COLD 

East? COLD

 

England & Wales average, Scotland slightly below average, Shetland islands cold

[Howie]

I really hope the Iberian high gets modeled weaker soon as it's the real spoiler right now 

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Genuine question!!!!is there any chance we should be looking east between 144 and 216 hours and maybe even further on just incase a stronger scandi high pops up instead?

Would not rule it out. Have a look through through the GEFS at day 7 & 8 and you will see why! The ensembles are a mess but a cluster do increase pressure over Scandi.

[Updated_Weather]

10 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

The real cold just isn’t heading south over the UK. (Apart from northern most parts). This is a trend that keeps occurring, run after run..

Based on what?

can’t just say that without backing it up?

imo real cold will make its way to the UK at some point. 

[GSP]

Such a large temperature differential between the very cold air to the north and relatively mild air to the south wants to create a lot of rain in the UK’s vacinity.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Winter '79 run. Somewhere would get buried, dependent where boundary set up.

Amen.

Azores low and skyrocketing greeny high = tanking NAO. All historic cold spells had those two things as a common denominator. The availability of cold out east on here is simply staggering too! 

[Notty]

Just now, GSP said:

Such a large temperature differential between the very cold air to the north and relatively mild air to the south wants to create a lot of rain in the UK’s vacinity.

It will not verify anyway

[Scandinavian High.]

Northern hemisphere view easterlys   right across the Atlantic

Edited January 9, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Based on what?

can’t just say that without backing it up?

imo real cold will make its way to the UK at some point. 

Its actually a fair comment re the cold struggling to come south. This was shown in quite a few of the last set of GEFS and personally I wasn't that shocked to see this opp run (or something like it). Doesn't mean it will verify though as its all way out in la la land.