Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[chris55]

So changeable in the mid term at the moment!

EC 120 now looks more prone to an easterly than a northerly.

Whatever ends up verifying, it’s certainly not boring! 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

If ever an emoji that depicts a Pear with breasts  laying in a pram throwing out its toys is needed!

Just by what the Met said after their 10 day outlook the other day- SSWs don't always favour cold for UK and that coupled with La Nina driven second half of winter, to me doesn't sound that good for a decent cold spell!. nobody loves snow and cold more than me but there seems to be a lot of turd polishing going on!

70 % chance of cold for UK after SSW.

And as I said earlier when discussing probabilities, I think 60% chance of the Greenland/Arctic high scenario that delivers the entire vortex.  So I think it is as simple as this.  We may not get cold.  Still.  But if we do, there is a very high chance it will be severe cold.  Well that’s my take anyway!

[Jason M]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The 20th has been the date of interest for days and days, not sure what people are expecting before then?

ECM looks bang on date wise- 

Look at the amplification upstream and secondary ridge off the ESB. Only one way that's heading (hint: not mild)

At day 10 ECM is always amplified though. I'm surprised that the Dictionary definition of amplified doesn't just say 'ECM at day 10' .

The bowling ball low in mid Atlantic is usually the pre curser for some serious Greek cold! In their forums i'd imagine this would be a boom chart a few days later. Interestingly (or maybe not), google translate suggests that the Greek word for boom is actually...... 'boom'!

Edited January 9, 2021 by Jason M

[Vikos]

Still some days to get the cold even to your island. Models are swinging, don't get traped and depressed over some "not-so-cold" runs. 18z will be a killer again, 00z hangover and so on.

+14hh, everything after is didi-land

 

[Frostbite1980]

None of the output is bad compared to previous years...slowly slowly catchy monkey! There is so much going on atm and that's before further warnings happen above! When was the last time we have seen so many Warmings take place in the space of a month? If we haven't seen it then the more advanced suites haven't seen it! I sum it up in one word.....chaos!

[sheikhy]

As steve has mentioned a pretty poor day of model watching!!everything flatter on the ukmo and ecm compared to yesterday!!gfs yeh is good but again flapping around!!we have not built on the early upgrades yesterday and we do keep looking at good charts around day 10 constantly!!been on this forum for over nearly 2 decades as well as viewing the models for the same amount of time so as positive as i want to be its kinda hard right now!!!!this evenings ecm 12z is very meh!!nothing really happening with that run!!gona throw the towel in............OH HELL NO!!!!!i still got faith that something could pop up closer than 10 days away with what is happening higher up in the atmosphere!!!!gota be soon though cos i would rather have cold and snow in january and early february with the sun lower in the sky than late feb/march!!!im kinda done with these spring snowstorms lol!!

Edited January 9, 2021 by sheikhy

[mulzy]

The EPS day 10 mean is cold (colder than this morning).

Very troughy around the UK extending east...

Edited January 9, 2021 by mulzy

[Anthony Burden]

ECM 12z not keen on dropping the 850 hpa temperatures but plenty of time for that to 

change,my take we will be very unlucky not to tap into that very cold continental air.

looks like next week Tuesday to Saturday to get ready for some serious cold the proof 

of coarse will be in the charts.

[pyrotech]

Tempers will flair here and there will be no nails left on many fingers, if people keep trying to analyse every run  as they are doing.

To see where this is most likely to be going we need firstly look at trends ( 500mb charts are really useful)

Then Keep comparing same model against same run time to monitor changes, not the 6z against the 12z

Compare 12z against 12z for changes

The trend is your friend 

[Tim Bland]

ECM is a snowless run but look over the pond...80cm... wouldn’t take much to shift it our way

[O'Maille80]

Seems to be a waiting game. I'm of the opinion that midweek next week is when we will see where we're going for the final third of January. Anything showing consistently before then would surprise me.

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Tempers will flair here and there will be no nails left on many fingers, if people keep trying to analyse every run  as they are doing.

To see where this is most likely to be going we need firstly look at trends ( 500mb charts are really useful)

Then Keep comparing same model against same run time to monitor changes, not the 6z against the 12z

Compare 12z against 12z for changes

The trend is your friend 

Excatly! In synopctics, you compare 12z to 12z and 00z to 00z... !

[beefy201]

Whilst model watching is great fun surely you all realise anything beyond 3 days isn’t worth the output you all get excited about .... more so now with such volatility 

[Chesil View]

ECM 12z op shows a sensible slow and steady evolution to a colder set up Ridging up into Greenland and lower heights into central Europe. Nothing fancy just a steady run in the right direction. I prefer it to underpromise but overdeliver come the time rather than the other way round .

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The EPS day 10 mean is cold (colder than this morning).

Very troughy around the UK extending east...

A bit like this ?  @mulzy

 

[Tim Bland]

10 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Some snow for most next week on the ECM...

Here is yesterday’s 12z ECM - so we can compare apples with apples ?

[PolarWarsaw]

Seems to be quite a frustrating spell this. 

Just as we get a solid day or so of modelling and the pendulum mentally swings towards cold, we undo it the next day with things looking 'flatter' and generally showing things further east. Obviously more so now than at any other point this winter is it worth watching Day 10 trends, but it has been seemingly endless in this last 7-8 weeks looking at Day 10 for nothing to actually really produce at the surface. 

It's honestly been such a shame to see no widespread snow event, even if it was marginal and gone within a day or 2, there would be a lot more patience on display if most of the country had seen some sort of reasonable 'slider' event, which we can achieve in even the mildest winters. 

There's plenty to be positive about, but this honestly has to be the most frustrating winter in decades - the cold just never arrives sufficiently or in any sort of set pattern to suggest it would hang around for more than a couple of days. Let's hope tonight's Day 10 charts are actually on to something and not just another trip up to 'dangly carrot' land. If we get to this time next month (just 4 weeks away in reality) without having had or being in/on the cusp of at least a reasonably cold/widespread snowy event then I fear for the sanity of some. 

This is the most important 2 weeks or so of modelling that there will be in the entire 3/4 months of this winter. 

Edited January 9, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

A bit like this ?  @mulzy

 

That would probably fit into the envelope quite comfortably.

Extended EPS mean the coldest it’s been for a while - right out to day 14.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Whilst model watching is great fun surely you all realise anything beyond 3 days isn’t worth the output you all get excited about .... more so now with such volatility 

I disagree.  Models are good guidance to 4-8 days depending on what’s going on, ensembles 8-12 maybe.

But now, with this volatility as you say, we are not looking for the models to predict the future days ahead, with the SSW we have a strong theory about the future, and are waiting for the models to confirm or deny it.   That’s very different.  

[Daniel*]

It’s unrealistic to have expected for us to go very cold next week, the EPS is really teasing with deep cold to NE!

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The EPS day 10 mean is cold (colder than this morning).

Very troughy around the UK extending east...

Did you look at the control ....... courtesy of the arctic high dropping into scandi 

completely at odds with the mean 

Edited January 9, 2021 by bluearmy

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Did you look at the control ....... courtesy of the arctic high dropping into scandi 

completely at odds with the mean 

Yes, I guess the scatter is quite large but more likely an outlier but an interesting evolution.

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

That would probably fit into the envelope quite comfortably.

Extended EPS mean the coldest it’s been for a while - right out to day 14.

Starting to get really interested in this now!!

BOOM!

BIG UPGRADE on the 12z from the 0Z eps at 240 - havent seen the extended myself but if they are staying cold to 14 that suggests even if the op did topple (which i don't think it will), it would be outside 80% spread.

Edited January 9, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240, yes I’ll take all you’ve got of those, please:

[Methuselah]

Well, all I can say is that the NWPMs are invaluable! I'll always remember when forecasts of 'heavy snow', for the day ahead, ended up with 2 hours' light, sleety stuff, followed by rain and maxes of 10C...

That doesn't happen these days, does it; and, for that, we should be thankful? That said, The Beatles won't be #1 any time soon, either!