Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[bluearmy]

Both gfs and gfsp are slightly east with the front  midweek .... unlikely ecm will swing back from its 06z .... more likely it continues east ...

[Ice Day]

UKMO v GFS at 120

  

Looks like we're heading into FI territory already!

[Singularity]

GFS finally manages to peel away that little low like ECM’s been doing. The large impact that has on the setup just to our east and northeast is telling!

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Both gfs and gfsp are slightly east with the front  midweek .... unlikely ecm will swing back from its 06z .... more likely it continues east ...

Is that good or bad. 

[KTtom]

Odd, on wetter, UKMO 120 and 144 are both for Thursday, I think the 144 was yesterdays 12z?

[Ice Day]

UKMO at 144 looks a good chart to me. Most of the PV heading away from Canada and the Atlantic looks primed for amplification?  

[Cold Winter Night]

UKMO +144h looks very chaotic, but it starts to build heights in the Atlantic, heights are still developing in the GIN-corridor (Greenland-Iceland-Scandinavia) and in the Arctic. All good for the longer term.

I think a UKMO +240h could look very good, but we will never know.

Edited January 9, 2021 by Cold Winter Night

[Battleground Snow]

GFS looking good in the Atlantic here. ESB storm in a good place. Low close to cutting off.  Let's forgot that 00z run ever happened

I probably sound like a broken record at this point,

Only another 168 hours to count this down!

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS looking good in the Atlantic here. ESB storm in a good place. Low close to cutting off. 

I probably sound like a broken record at this point,

Only another 168 hours to count this down!

 

Northeast America in the freezer

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Northeast America in the freezer

Which is normally a bad thing when we want cold!

[Ali1977]

WAA about to go crazy up through Greeny, awesome day 10 coming - that’s my guess at T192 anyway

if it links with the Heights over the pole even better

Edited January 9, 2021 by Ali1977

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Which is normally a bad thing when we want cold!

Although this idea has merit... 

Steeper gradient of warm meeting cold air can lead to greater cyclogenesis.. 

However. 

It often means there is enough PV left there.. 

1. To prevent West based NAO 

2.To allow depressions to cross the Atlantic allowing frontal snow. 

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by ALL ABOARD

[TSNWK]

Not as amplified into greenie at this time but artic heights stronger... swings and roundabouts and I think it will be looking good as that air to our north drops down

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

WAA about to go crazy up through Greeny, awesome day 10 coming - that’s my guess at T192 anyway

Yep, at 204 the GFS could be lining up a cracker   

Disclaimer - If it doesn't it's nothing to do with me!

[Djdazzle]

Will we get some great day 9 charts today to show progression from yesterday’s great day 10 offerings?

[Frostbite1980]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Not as amplified into greenie at this time but artic heights stronger... swings and roundabouts and I think it will be looking good as that air to our north drops down

Would prefer the WAA going more north than NW.

[Kasim Awan]

GFSP looks unrealistic

[Timmytour]

From a quick view of all the posts since my visit yesterday  (boy what a change it makes from catching up on the posts a day after your last view and finishing on the same page you started with!)  I'm getting the sense that the models are a little fickle at the moment, possibly due to the SSW, but trending towards a quite bitterly cold spell coming in from about 21st Jan.

Of course, we've all seen such promise before and often times it does not deliver.  My gut feeling on this one, while I'm waiting for the models to settle down a little, is that the push of cold air is going to come at us a little quicker, say by 17th Jan with finally some snow for those of us who have been starved so far of it by the 19th.  But in coming sooner, it will come weaker and not last as long as some hope...

 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFSP looks unrealistic

Watch this one then

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Although this idea has merit... 

Steeper gradient of warm meeting cold air can lead to greater cyclogenesis.. 

However. 

It often means there is enough PV left there.. 

1. To prevent West based NAO 

2.To allow depressions to cross the Atlantic allowing frontal snow. 

 

Yes agreed.. if you look where the deepest of the cold is it's more in central USA then the eastern seaboard. This allows amplification in the right place for us, instead of the jet running over the top

[Ali1977]

Imagine if this comes off, Forum overload!! 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Imagine if this comes off, Forum overload!! 

Great chart - and it’s day 9 not 10!

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFSP looks unrealistic

It makes a mess with multiple lows popping up in the Atlantic. Could still workout long term tho

[Griff]

So heard good things about the gem of late, here it's against ukmo at 120..

 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Would prefer the WAA going more north than NW.

Yeah.. maybe.. but then we do end up with this at day 9.5

maybe worthy of gentle boom.. I’m saving the upper cases booming until and if we get to day 4