Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Steve Groome]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

137 layers-wow, I am old enough to remember the frist Met O computer, belonging to Ferranti Manchester. It had THREE levels. Can't find the article on it from 50 years ago but I'll keep trying!

History of numerical weather prediction

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The history of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the Met Office, from the early 1950s to present.

 

[Purga]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

Oooops wrong Manchester. Heres the Manchester UK ensemble, minus the minus 20 850s 

The one's for London are even better!

PS: Even if it is London Ontario

[Battleground Snow]

Maybe the MJO going back into neutral cod and not staying in the westerly 3 and 4 phase of forcing is enough to allow us a HLB?

 

[Frosty.]

Ok guys I’m seriously worried..no posts for 20 mins..this is a crisis init?..or is it?..I’ve already started to see backtracks from mild domination in recent days..just kidding guys..I haven’t posted in a while but despite the Gfs 6z op I think there is plenty of scope for a hot topic here..don’t give up coldies, time is on our side.,and there’s a massive ssw.. but also pacific problems too?..anyway..I may not post again for a while..but it depends on whether we start to see wintry nirvana soon?..if we don’t..I will stay away until spring or summer!!!!..promise!

Edited January 8, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Rollo]

Jon you are a fixture here, please keep posting.

[northwestsnow]

EC clusters look fabulous.. 

Little wonder Exeter are leaning cold..

I'm expecting this place to get lively, soon..!

[Day_9]

 

IT IS CERTAINLY HOTTING UP BUT NOT IN TEMPERATURE TERMS..... THE MILD SPELL IS TOAST

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC clusters look fabulous.. 

Little wonder Exeter are leaning cold..

I'm expecting this place to get lively, soon..!

I think we have been burnt too many times and people want this into the reliable before believing it. Let's hope for a good set of 12z to finish a tough working week!

[Mark wheeler]

While it’s quiet before the deluge of posts on the 12z . Here is my regular post on the musings of the Navgem . 

looking forward to this afternoon’s updates and analysis from all . It’s such a fantastic forum . 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC clusters look fabulous.. 

Little wonder Exeter are leaning cold..

I'm expecting this place to get lively, soon..!

Well some certainly look better than others

clearly a strong propensity to ridge in the griceland area but also in our longitude ........we need the slowdown in flow to help edge that nw euro ridge west but if the greeny ridge is actually where we would be headed then the wbnao becomes a risk again ........

way too complicated to spend much time on the post day 6 period 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

JMA outlook for the rest of January looks mild and wet, windy & Atlantic driven.  No attack from beast from the east on there its all attack from pest from the west

Edited January 8, 2021 by 38.7°C

[Smokeone]

2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

JMA outlook for the rest of January looks mild and wet, windy & Atlantic driven.  No attack from beast from the east on there its all attack from pest from the west

I'm glad I never check the JMA then. Looking forward to see the 12Z runs from the GFS, UKMO and ECM. Hopefully we carry on with some good trends for later in January.

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

JMA outlook for the rest of January looks mild and wet, windy & Atlantic driven.  No attack from beast from the east on there its all attack from pest from the west

Glad it’s just the JMA then

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

JMA outlook for the rest of January looks mild and wet, windy & Atlantic driven.  No attack from beast from the east on there its all attack from pest from the west

Jma had a good blocked outlook pre SSW .......

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

JMA outlook for the rest of January looks mild and wet, windy & Atlantic driven.  No attack from beast from the east on there its all attack from pest from the west

If I may! A general rule of thumb  on what charts are wheeled and when 

GFS ( GFS Para ) ECM and UKM be the stable diet.

GEM / ICON / JMA when showing what we as Coldies want.

In desperate times for Coldies then FI  NAVGEM / NASA  may be wheeled out.

[Battleground Snow]

Weak scandi high as early as 138 on the icon.. the SSW is really causing choas in the trop patterns

 

 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Jma had a good blocked outlook pre SSW .......

Has the SSW thrown the JMA into confusion, or has the model picked up on a signal for the SSW to be unfavorable for cold?  Only answer at this stage I suppose is we will have to see?

[ALL ABOARD]

Ello skipper... 

Another scenario.. 

Scandi high, cold funnelled this way, and by cold I mean decently cold. 

 

[BarnetBlizzard]

 

Well well well, ICON being a bit adventurous this afternoon. 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Has the SSW thrown the JMA into confusion, or has the model picked up on a signal for the SSW to be unfavorable for cold?  Only answer at this stage I suppose is we will have to see?

I haven’t seen the jma but if it’s shoving deep cold into the mid lats in other parts of the  NH then it’s reacting to the SSW. If it isn’t then it isn’t seeing any effective downwelling. 

[Frosty.]

57 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC clusters look fabulous.. 

Little wonder Exeter are leaning cold..

I'm expecting this place to get lively, soon..!

This kind of post arouses..erm..probably the wrong word..ok, piques my interest..is that more acceptable?..anyway..nice job northwestsnow, you have aroused..I mean piqued my interest!...being more serious though, the models show attempted cold incursions from the north ( for the far n / ne ) during the first part of next week..whereas previously it was mild filth!..fingers crossed we are seeing the tentative beginnings for something much more wintry in the not too distant future..which I think is the reason why most of us are here isn’t it?.hmmmmm?..Shirley it’s not just about point scoring?!!....ps..I can’t stomach yet another garbage winter..so I will view from a distance..at least for a while!

Edited January 8, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Battleground Snow]

More importantly it now develops the cut off low and deep depression over Canada.

Edit: ignore the line near Scotland.... Don't know what I did there.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

 

Well well well, ICON being a bit adventurous this afternoon. 

may well be picking up some SSW signels so when the GFs 12z comes out it could be interesting 

 

[Methuselah]

12Z's on its way out, so beware posts saying 'Expect upgrades!' -- all alternative routes end in heartbreak!

Edited January 8, 2021 by General Cluster

[Djdazzle]

Just now, General Cluster said:

12Z'n its way out, so beware posts saying 'Expect upgrades!' -- all alternative routes end in heartbreak!

You forgot “boom”, “potential” and “models picking up the SSW.”