Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[swfc]

Excellent ec and gathering moment on ie ukmo and early gfs oz. Good start to day the day

[Harsh Climate]

Major battleground situation coming up 216h.

And what is that? Even deeper cold flooding into scandinavia!

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Major battleground situation coming up 216h.

And what is that? Even deeper cold flooding into scandinavia!

Is that a patch of -10 over Norfolk I see

[Drifter]

Surely snow for the south/sw on the day ten chart?

[mulzy]

Incoming snow depth charts for the ECM day 10 from @Tim Bland 

[Drifter]

Today is the first day I can safely say the SSW is being reflected in the models - and I’m liking what I see!

[northwestsnow]

Liking the trend on EC Det this morning!!

Gradually getting colder as time goes on...

Big chunk of vortex heading for scandy...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s best not to get too hung up on charts > 72 hrs with the amount of volatility caused by SSW.

Looking good however for next week onwards with cold returning and bigger chances galore.

[Chesil View]

I'd venture to suggest that the 00z ECM run this morning is the best of the winter so far in terms of a sensible progression, as opposed to its usual  over amplification bias.

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 0z ensembles

things remaining fairly chilly according to the GEFS 0z ensembles after a brief mild spell

it will be also very interesting to see the ECM ensemble mean ( later ) after that good ECM 0z Op run

Edited January 8, 2021 by Jeremy Shockey

[northwestsnow]

Yes I'm feeling momentum is gradually moving in coldies direction this morning...

I would say we are seeing evidence of a pretty quick response to the SSW...

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

9 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GEFS 0z ensembles

things remaining fairly chilly according to the GEFS 0z ensembles after a brief mild spell

it will be also very interesting to see the ECM ensemble mean ( later ) after that good ECM 0z Op run

The mean 850s barely going positive now?!  A significant albeit temporary drop in the 850s being shown early next week now as well

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Il put this in hear, the fax for this morning shows the low pressure well, with a nice wave feature on the low pressure l, I'm a bit confused as to why the ppn is forecast to now go through towards Wales and the South West rather than moving directly south across the county, I'm hoping someone can respond on this, 

For me personally it's a radar event, with the front straddled directly across England and Wales it tells me there's enough room for ppn to develop across large swathes of England and Wales

[DanDorsetUK]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes I'm feeling momentum is gradually moving in coldies direction this morning...

I would say we are seeing evidence of a pretty quick response to the SSW...

Yes very evident of downwelling detected i would say this is a QTR event. 2 more warmings likely to come too.

[Mike Poole]

2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Way out in FI now, but look at the reverse flow and how much cold gets shoved into the Atlantic, reminiscent of 2018.

 

 

 

Yes, that’s the same pattern as in the later stages of the 18z last night, although with the cold attack better aligned.  Something is brewing in week 2 here!

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Today is the first day I can safely say the SSW is being reflected in the models - and I’m liking what I see!

That’s quite an Imby view ..............

It’s been happening since last week .......some areas of the NH more obvious and others,  (like the swathe of warm ocean to our west) much less so

 

[northwestsnow]

The mean is moving in the right direction ....

 

[DEYS(Kent)]

Just for fun. This is 10 Days away.

WXCHARTS

WWW.WXCHARTS.COM

---

A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

The Op was one of the coldest in the later stages but the mean is not bad ( after the mild blip )

An improvement in the medium term for coldies as we enter the second half of the month

[Griff]

So a few days ago the consensus was pattern becoming very flat, going much milder with little to no prospects. 

I recall one model telling a different story... A bit on my own there. 

I've not had time to read though any posts here or check twitter (yeah right, honest to both). 

What have I missed? 

Anything changed? 

(edit: apologies, feeling elated as we have 0.5cm of very patchy snow cover here this morning, the first since March of last year) 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[chris55]

Stalling fronts, battleground snowfall and a snowstorm at the end, a good ECM run!

[Griff]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean is moving in the right direction ....

 

You sound a little more optimistic, has your outlook changed in line with any specific models / charts? 

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Excellent ec and gathering moment on ie ukmo and early gfs oz. Good start to day the day

What's not To like?! At last the sww beginning to show itself in the output. Let's hope this winter delivers 

[IDO]

Last night's 12z ecm has flipped with how it models the Arctic high so closer to the gfs solution. This allows the tPV flow to move from Asia through Siberia towards Scandi on the 0z; it cut off the flow on the 12z.

So the d10 means from gfs and ecm getting some continuity:

The ecm op is still fighting its own ens and again is a statistical outlier (just) as early as d6, so one to watch until we see if the trend of the op is followed:

850's>

The gfs op just looks like it went crazy later in the run and is not a synoptic match to the mean, again one to watch to see if the ens follow that (doubtful)? The d13 ens, as expected showing more interest as we count down to the last third of Jan (general consensus for bigger changes).

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

So a few days ago the consensus was pattern becoming very flat, going much milder with little to no prospects. 

Anything changed? 

I would not say it has changed, just that as we enter the reliable, the cool down is less pronounced, you would probably expect d10 charts to be less accurate than d8 and so forth?

gefs to d8 London>

^^^Def less cold period incoming, returning to seasonal, and even a few days ago that was the suggestion. Certainly nothing really cold in that transitional period ( I exclude d8-10 ecm op charts for obvious reasons).

The potential is getting closer and hopefully it is worth the wait!

Edited January 8, 2021 by IDO

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

You sound a little more optimistic, has your outlook changed in line with any specific models / charts? 

I'm feeling much more optimistic...

There is scope for a decent cold spell brewing IMO...