Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Cryosphere. said:

Thats nation-wide standstill material....

We will all be ordered to stay at home...but away from the Scottish highlands it won’t be weather related with these temps... 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

10C spread at 5 days is extraordinary

Can’t remember the last time we saw that much spread at such short range! Keeps model watching interesting ...wouldn’t want to be writing a long range forecast right now though! 

[Man With Beard]

Hope no one was hoping for a quick warm up next week?

Edited January 7, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[danm]

More great trends this evening. The small, local details don’t yet  show a nationwide freeze due to a combo of Euro heights and/or blocking being a tad west based, but at that range the micro details matter far less than the macro changes we’re beginning to see. 

[CSC]

Hey all, evening!

I would just like to add a bit of input to this unique meteorological time. 
 

For us cold-lovers, it’s evident to me the ‘critical point’ is around the 12-13th Jan. Up until then it looks like agreement is close, but then cross model agreement starts to drastically shiver. If the heights build to our advantage, and we are on the right side of the cold, then things could quite possibly become spectacular. One noticeable theme - notice that precip forecast increases significantly at the critical moment around the 12th? This means that if we do get into the cold, nationwide snow events may possible follow in multiple numbers yes, speculation right now, but the possibility exists. As all those have said, macro not micro details are most important at this moment, but tonight I certainly will be thinking on the up. The exponential potential is there.

[Battleground Snow]

I'm afraid you're going have to do more scrolling @Vikos as the the number of  ensembles have increased in support of the OP.

 

 

[username home]

2 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Why's that ?

Can you see why now?

[Snowman.]

36 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

We will all be ordered to stay at home...but away from the Scottish highlands it won’t be weather related with these temps... 

Send it 1000 miles east and call it a done deal.

[Pembroke Dangler]

5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Send it 1000 miles east and call it a done deal.

900 will do

[Kentspur]

Heights much further north towards the arctic on latest 0z Icon towards mid Jan compared to 12z run, looks like a trough disrupting out west off the ESB, 850HPA pretty cold especially in  Eastern areas& Northern England 

 

Latest 0z first

 

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

Icon at 180.. 

Massively different from its 12z run. 

 

 

 

[swfc]

Morning. The early stages of the gfs oz still hold short term changes. The area of Heighths threw iceland still have a chance of holding and changing the flow on the nhp. Fi very early imo.

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo v GFS at 144

 

[swfc]

Much better gfs. Cold could be heading back west. Already a good change early doors. Mabye heading towards a a slack easterly on the output threw the next few runs hopefully 

[Battleground Snow]

Not going to be a like the 18z here. This area of low pressure wasn't there before. Let's see if the para can maintain its good run from last night.

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Para should be good if the low circled gets cut off and doesn't merge.

 

 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para should be good if the low circled gets cut off and doesn't merge.

 

 

Yes heights heading north east, good run

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes heights heading north east, good run

Hope the ECM can follow up with some consistency at 192. I wouldn't take too much notice of the GFS op at the moment with its big variation in output.

Very nice at 240

Gem doesn't have a cut off low to push strong heights into Greenland but it still  has heights in the area, a solid run for cold.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[SMU]

UKMO is way ahead the best run today

lows cutting ESE & pressure build to the west...

Edited January 8, 2021 by Steve Murr

[swfc]

Fi on gfs parallel has a 1070 mb high over greenland, great to see but be a memory later today 

[Battleground Snow]

Way out in FI now, but look at the reverse flow and how much cold gets shoved into the Atlantic, reminiscent of 2018.

 

 

 

[Harsh Climate]

Nice 6z ECM at 144h. Is keen on deep cold building to our north and east. And is attempting to advect it further south and west towards us.

Probably not going to make it but who knows with these baby steps each run?? Promising start.

Gfs Parallel also very good. 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 168 - All so near  It couldn't.... could it?

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

Hope no one was hoping for a quick warm up next week?

Met Office don't agree with this, you can see it with their predicted temperatures for next week, 8C for them for that same date for my location, west of Manchester. I think we have to accept some kind of warm up next week, its a case of  the degree of the mildness and how long it lasts. 

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Weather-history

[Harsh Climate]

ECM - 192h 

Not your standard Boom chart, but potential wise it's right up there!

Very cold nights with charts like this