Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS looking good

Need to keep an eye on those heights over Iberia

[DanDorsetUK]

100% SSW response and right where expected! Downwelling being picked up for sure tonight, has to be.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hope them heights to the south don’t ruin this 

They should fall as the Northerly comes in.. maybe not enough for the far south

[blizzard81]

The para has been like a dog with a bone for days now with very cold offerings to varying degrees. It has definitely sniffed something out that is very beneficial for north west Europe. 

[ICE COLD]

Bring that purple blob home

[Cheshire Freeze]

As @Kasim Awan says, a model shift is happening. Each day we've seen less and less momentum in the zonal flow across the Atlantic sector and that is now reaching the tipping point whereby we start to see blocking take hold instead...

Ops leading the ensembles as I said a couple of days back...

Edited January 7, 2021 by CreweCold

[Ice Day]

Feels like a bit of a watershed day today.  Is it really the run up to something special or another winter nirvana mirage?

GFS at 270 could be about to bury some part of the UK

The Para is looking to build heights at 210

 

[Cryosphere.]

17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Vortex ripped to shreds can we take advantage? 

Buckshot effect..

[danm]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As @Kasim Awan says, a model shift is happening. Each day we've seen less and less momentum in the zonal flow across the Atlantic sector and that is now reaching the tipping point whereby we start to see blocking take hold instead...

Ops leading the ensembles as I said a couple of days back...

Yep, all we need is for those Iberian heights to sod off and we’re in the freezer. 

[Mike Poole]

Greenland high, proper one (yellows) now forming T270 on GFS 18z:

[ICE COLD]

The heights down south are bloody ruining this run . That was some extremely cold air to are north . Still good run tho . 

[SMU]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

On the ECM the heights to the ne of the low at t120 ish seem to be increasing, would this help build heights to the the nw? The fact you enquired makes me feel loved. Seriously though I’m genuinely interested as I think it does. Please feel free to tell me I’m talking rubbish. Just trying to increase my knowledge. TIA. 

The heights over the NE in Russia will exert a force on the jet upstream - the net effect would be to create more amplification than a scenario if there was no high pressure, Also the reaction in the models to the SSW & reoccurring phases of SSW will probably mean they underestimate the level & intensity of blocking as well.

With that all in mind as 192 becomes 168 & that becomes 144 & so on then everything will probably sharpen up anyway like it has so far >
The ridge in the atlantic at 138 is nicely timed because it forces some energy SE under the block which then allows some backing of the cold west, as that then subsides & the next one builds so the cold to the North &!east is that bit closer...

Edited January 7, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Greenland high, proper one (yellows) now forming T270 on GFS 18z:

There were a few ensembles showing this earlier that I seen... Hopefully a few more appear to support the op later

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Feels like a bit of a watershed day today.  Is it really the run up to something special or another winter nirvana mirage?

GFS at 270 could be about to bury some part of the UK

The Para is looking to build heights at 210

 

The // went off beam much earlier than that so probably should be discounted now.  

[DanDorsetUK]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Greenland high, proper one (yellows) now forming T270 on GFS 18z:

Beautiful! Textbook response!

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As @Kasim Awan says, a model shift is happening. Each day we've seen less and less momentum in the zonal flow across the Atlantic sector and that is now reaching the tipping point whereby we start to see blocking take hold instead...

Ops leading the ensembles as I said a couple of days back...

Indeed, NWP recieving new data on more definite SSW zonal energy modulations and the likely tropospheric impacts. There could be a more significant shift to more blocked or more zonal conditions in the coming runs, the first probably more likely.

[cyclonic happiness]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // T150 just looks weird:

I think we might discount this run from here on in...

It's looking good for disruption of the vortex though.

 

(Looks like Elvis too 

[northwestsnow]

Euro high proving a real pain again on this run..

[SMU]

 60CM

Edited January 7, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Djdazzle]

17 minutes ago, joggs said:

Going to be sone peachy runs from here on in over the next week and maybe beyond.

Fed up with seeing peachy runs which never verify!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Euro high proving a real pain again on this run..

It could help us by adding to the Mid Atlantic ridge.

[blizzard81]

Now this really excites me. Very akin to the ecm op tonight. 

[Battleground Snow]

As good as the 18z operational is, I'd stick with the para. It seems more inline with the ECM output. The cut off low here might be enough to push  the Atlantic high up towards to Arctic high.

 

[Ice Day]

The 850's temp differential on the pub run is insane.  Southern Scotland have uppers around 0c, with northern areas in -12s

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As @Kasim Awan says, a model shift is happening. Each day we've seen less and less momentum in the zonal flow across the Atlantic sector and that is now reaching the tipping point whereby we start to see blocking take hold instead...

Ops leading the ensembles as I said a couple of days back...

Could be ECM ensembles leading the ops if this impromptu snow event next Tuesday/Wednesday comes off. I'll be watching tomorrow morning's set very very carefully.