South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Polaris]

7am dog walk over dunstable downs it is then tomorrow. 

[Reefseeker]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I'd better get the sledge out and on the slopes at the crack of dawn before it all melts after breakfast lol.

Shame the front doesn't stall like yesterday, but beggars can't be choosers, make the most of the white stuff while it last, early night and set the alarm for 5am. Could be a while until the next opportunity.

 

Oh so true! I'm setting the alarm for 7am (unknown for a Saturday!) and getting the lad up for a good old-fashioned snow walk if it comes off (big if). I was looking at the sledges in the shed yesterday, optimistically purchased in 2013 and unused since - could their time have come?!

Grey and overcast this morning in Surbiton. Off for a sludgy walk later in the mud baths that are the local parks and woodlands.... hmmm... that could make for a mucky sledging experience tomorrow.... Ah well, as you say Nick F, beggars can't be choosers;) My fingers are all crossed.

[dallas]

I'm catching the 0530 train to work tomorrow!

[Kent Blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I'd better get the sledge out and on the slopes at the crack of dawn before it all melts after breakfast lol.

Shame the front doesn't stall like yesterday, but beggars can't be choosers, make the most of the white stuff while it last, early night and set the alarm for 5am. Could be a while until the next opportunity.

 

Take some Eggs with you and fry them on the ground when it starts to warm up :)

[Bazza118]

fingers crossed we do get a period of snow, however brief . I've a feeling their might be a lot of dog walkers out early tomorrow, as i know most dogs seem to love frost and snow.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think a lot of us in here would take 3 to 4 hours of heavy snow and a few cm even if transit.. Seeing all the snowy pics over the Internet is making me snow starved! 

At least we can say it snowed as well this winter LOL

[Delka]

Feeling hopeful about a temporary covering here tomorrow morning! 

BBC & Met office have given my location a very generous 5 hours of heavy snow symbols tomorrow so we’ll see how accurate it is

[john mac1]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Here are my thoughts.

UKV/AROME/EURO4 now all in agreement for a transient period of snowfall across the region tonight/early tomorrow morning. Snowfall along the leading edge possibly giving accumulations quite widely before turning back to rain early morning as warmer air makes inroads across the region. 

The reason for the upgrade in snow is a slightly slower warm front keeping the milder air at bay, shown well here on the FAX & latest UKV run.

 

Peak snow risk: 5am-7am. 

Full transition back to rain across the entire region between 7-9am. 

Hmm, I wonder if that slow down of the warm front may upgrade later.

[john mac1]

If the warm front moves in slower then there could be some surprises. Something to keep an eye on this evening. 

[Blazerblue]

So when walking the pooches half 6 tomorrow morning, im gonna end up with snow dogs?? wont sleep tonight with all the excitement. If i just get soaked from cold rain I will not be amused

[snowking]

Latest Euro4 still pretty keen on snowfall for much of East Anglia and some parts of Kent/Sussex too.

Just to help you match up the scales there, the majority of East Anglia in line for 2-5cms. For a large swathe of Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and arcing back around into Hertfordshire the scale there shows 5-10cms, and for what looks like a lucky zone across the higher ground of Essex/Herts (and likely I would think back across to the Chilterns too), 10-20cms currently shown, and this has been pretty consistent over the last couple of runs.

Worth noting the Euro4 is probably the most keen on snowfall currently - other modelling not quite a bullish as this (I suspect the UKV is slightly toned down based on the current warning in place).

It will all come down to just how quickly (or not) the fronts occlude tomorrow - the further West they occlude, the better snowfall chances are

[Mark]

Any reports from what is drifting SW across Kent right now? There seems to be some build up behind it too.

[Neilsouth]

I saw snow outside of Canterbury when I was driving today, didn't last at all, but I was surprised to see it :D

[Coopsy]

There’s been quite a few snow events across the country this winter where things have stalled and produced surprise amounts. No reason why it couldn’t happen again tomorrow for those in the SE allowing longer under snow and higher totals. Trends are friends after all 

Also - anyone notice that green blog slowly building and slowly heading towards east Kent....

Edited January 15, 2021 by Coopsy

[kold weather]

Might have to do a early trip to the downs again. i suspect I'm probably a bit to far SW to have much more than maybe some initial snowfall on the very front edge.

Height will definately help, especially if your in Kent and Surrey for example.

Much also depends on how strong the front edge of the front is.

If it comes in sloppy and weak, then its going to be limited for snowfall. If we can get a nice sharp front edge, could well be a couple of hours of decent snowfall widely across the region.

[Polaris]

N London, Beds, Herts, Cambs through to Norfolk May well get a decent covering tomorrow, especially the chilterns 

High ground in Kent, East Sussex I think will do well also 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, MAF said:

snowball throwing is to be socially distanced though

even with the warning updates on Met O i have become so disillusioned this winter that i will only believe its snowing when i actually see it.

i mean, come on, we had a week of wet, cold, easterly, frost and not a flake. tomorrow we have 4-6C and a S/SSE'ly and its going to snow?? nothing seems to make sense these days.

 

Yeah that the weird thing lol, it'll snow from the south, but as soon as it starts swing around to the NW it's too warm. Simple reason. It's cold in Europe to the south right now, even in Spain. In the east of the country there's not a lot of water to go over to warm the air, and DP will most likely be favourable. The swing around then brings in warmer air from the west of our country. Which would have been warmed by our front, with out the easts favourable conditions.

[Jamie M]

25 minutes ago, Mark said:

Any reports from what is drifting SW across Kent right now? There seems to be some build up behind it too.

Sleet here this morning. DP shot up from 0.4c to 1.4c within seconds of the first batch arriving here. I presume some dandruff has fallen near Canterbury since that seems to be the case whenever I get sleet.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

What the hell!?!...again no snow on the coasts? that's cold rain for me (again) for the sixth time this winter!!.

Same lol.

 

[Hammer]

I suspect I am pretty well placed for tomorrow here in East Hertfordshire/ West Essex.

I will of course report during tomorrow morning.

[SHM040519]

5 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Sleet here this morning. DP shot up from 0.4c to 1.4c within seconds of the first batch arriving here. I presume some dandruff has fallen near Canterbury since that seems to be the case whenever I get sleet.

Can confirm it was some light sleet. Not holding out for much tomorrow 

[Valleyboy]

1 minute ago, Hammer said:

I suspect I am pretty well placed for tomorrow here in East Hertfordshire/ West Essex.

I will of course report during tomorrow morning.

You are in a good place, there could be an amber warning for the south east.

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yeah that the weird thing lol, it'll snow from the south, but as soon as it starts swing around to the NW it's too warm. Simple reason. It's cold in Europe to the south right now, even in Spain. In the east of the country there's not a lot of water to go over to warm the air, and DP will most likely be favourable. The swing around then brings in warmer air from the west of our country. Which would have been warmed by our front, with out the easts favourable conditions.

But, had you been alive in the 1960s (like me!) you'd be asking another question, entirely... Namely: What happened to all those 4-5 hour-long snowfalls, that almost invariably preceded milder air, gone to -- the bulk of which, fell with a southerly wind?

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

Not to give false hope once again, but things are starting to look better cold wise again now for next week

I thought they might, but also expect more twists.

[Eagle Eye]

Been banned from the mod thread for doing absoloutely nothng again,for past action which was I didn't know enough but I've gone on like every website and learnt what I need to know.

Anyway BBC has Snow from 6am up until 10am, we'll see what happens.

Xander

Edited January 15, 2021 by Sheldon Cooper