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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    God we are a bunch of optimists. 

    Proof in the pudding. Let’s see if they issue a warning tomorrow. Normally, given how badly London copes with even a tiny bit of snow the Met don’t take any chances. 

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    Hi everyone Been lurking on this site for probably around 12 years. Used to lurk on TWO. Never post but just wanted to share some pics from Folkestone Warren this evening looking out along the wh

    Some more photos from a local walk this morning. The freezing fog made everything special...

    Lots of Boom Posts starting to appear again in the MOD Thread so things could start to get interesting in the run upto the weekend as the models start showing the period 21-23rd by the 8th Jan runs.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I wasn’t expecting anything here today but seems models overestimated lower dew points. That’s the stronger easterlies over a warmer sea doing that again. 

    DD107B59-3364-4AC1-9D3B-F7474BB38C53.thumb.png.21fd9b59fe6c6cf1c2a1eea079ef97ad.pngEC97D0CC-A07E-4EB2-B2F4-F4B61A2CE4CE.thumb.png.fff30bdcc278e5c8189612746d2c44d6.png5A9F5C60-1CE3-4E79-9C26-C1171828AD98.thumb.png.50e0e80077dd7d9f9e824e1b625414f0.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    11 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

    Proof in the pudding. Let’s see if they issue a warning tomorrow. Normally, given how badly London copes with even a tiny bit of snow the Met don’t take any chances. 

    Looks promising for precip to start as snow even in London and of decent intensity, timing in the morning, wind coming from south off a cold continent, would be very surprised if we all only just got rain. 

    E4F260EE-1A09-4997-8169-EBFB7BF1AE91.thumb.png.dd5ff5f4f839ac1a9267bcdcb66c4e09.png6CE8DDED-5B72-4FBC-B4A9-616BD5231419.thumb.png.1ef379659d7fc70df9d025c79ec634c1.pngCDE0F342-A7D4-42BA-9C03-BD103B873649.thumb.png.ff46c5ad3a4eee3f6aa92a7a154dd1d7.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London

    Saturday's snow looks to be reserved for areas north of London, maybe high ground in SE. 

    satsleet.thumb.png.85ffd52593fbba047afea7acd4453ba8.png

    Harmonie, GEM, ICON: 

    hargemicon.thumb.png.9022ba091291c932464b1f15a580631d.png

    Doesn't seem like much on offer for London

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
  • Weather Preferences: Easygoing, but winter is meant to be white, dammit!
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
    1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Hoping we dont get too many more days like that this winter, absolutely rough with a strong raw wind off the North Sea and temps ranged from 2-4c all day with 36mm of rain taking the monthly total to 52.6mm. Absolute carnage on Road and Rail down here as well with major roads closed and the C2C Line closed at times today.

     

    139326631_4000955209924408_3880136994499200608_o.jpg

    The flooding didn't close the line...I drove through it twice...albeit at 5mph. What did do the trick, however, was a number of trains knackered by some overhead line problems. Caused merry hell this afternoon and evening, but thankfully I was back home before it all kicked off. 🤣 It wasn't a boring day to be a driver 😋

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn

    BBC Breakfast news local forecast going for a couple CMs tomorrow morning across London and the South East. 
     

    Would expect a warning to be issued later today. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn

    Yet Matt Taylor on national weather saying ‘Probably not much of a covering across the SE.’

    Talk about contradictions- classic BBC 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex

    Contradictory forecasts again between the met office and the BBC. Yesterday the BBC had me down for snow from 2pm till 6pm the met office rain and, of course the met office were correct. Tomorrow the met office has me down for snow from 8am till 11am then sleet with a high of 3. The BBC has sleet at 7 snow at 8, sleet from 9 till 11 then rain with a high of 5.

    Will wait and see if there are any warnings but I bet the BBC will be correct this time.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    unreal the same organization can have two different forecasts,covering of snow,to hardly any covering,basically just look out the window then!

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    To sum the high res up for tomorrow morning 

    ECM and EURO4 very bullish I mean look at the EURO4! 

    21011605_1500.thumb.gif.58f14b6d18de42986af64997b13172ca.gif

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    21011609_1500.thumb.gif.c03c6562bcd0b09715d13aa7719ef056.gif

     

    Gives a fair few hours of heavy snow to the whole region same as ECM that would be widespread 2-5cm before it turns to rain and thaws out although if you got a a few inches it may not have time to fully thaw.. 

    However.. However however however.. 

    ARPEGE says yes but reserved for higher ground probably a couple of cms around Chilterns, Downs, Surrey hills etc.. 

    ICON - nope rain 

    AROME - nope rain 

    It will come down to 2 things 

    Timing of front - to late and the Temps will be creeping to high

    Intensity - someone could be seeing rain 5 miles away while you are stuck under heavier PPN drawing down cooler air with a bit of elevation seeing snow.. 

     

    The 12z and 18z will give a better picture what I expect the met to do is issue a warning for Eastern parts say East London, Norfolk, etc and then phrase it so it can be expanded west based on this afternoons runs.. 

    Pray for the EURO4 to be right... Although Arpege has been performing pretty well recently... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
    14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    To sum the high res up for tomorrow morning 

    ECM and EURO4 very bullish I mean look at the EURO4! 

    21011605_1500.thumb.gif.58f14b6d18de42986af64997b13172ca.gif

    21011607_1500.thumb.gif.fba486e620b5f666ffaf074d6cacb868.gif

    21011609_1500.thumb.gif.c03c6562bcd0b09715d13aa7719ef056.gif

     

    Gives a fair few hours of heavy snow to the whole region same as ECM that would be widespread 2-5cm before it turns to rain and thaws out although if you got a a few inches it may not have time to fully thaw.. 

    However.. However however however.. 

    ARPEGE says yes but reserved for higher ground probably a couple of cms around Chilterns, Downs, Surrey hills etc.. 

    ICON - nope rain 

    AROME - nope rain 

    It will come down to 2 things 

    Timing of front - to late and the Temps will be creeping to high

    Intensity - someone could be seeing rain 5 miles away while you are stuck under heavier PPN drawing down cooler air with a bit of elevation seeing snow.. 

     

    The 12z and 18z will give a better picture what I expect the met to do is issue a warning for Eastern parts say East London, Norfolk, etc and then phrase it so it can be expanded west based on this afternoons runs.. 

    Pray for the EURO4 to be right... Although Arpege has been performing pretty well recently... 

    Looks like Cambs might get a pasting tomorrow 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent

    Think tomorrow will become a nowcast. Won’t be pretty and won’t be around for long! But better than nothing! Further east the better it looks 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    bbc didn't mention snow for the south east tomorrow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    This is what the METO app is currently showing for my location tomorrow, if that happened I'd be delighted. Just to finally see snow falling for a few hours, even if it didn't settle

    Screenshot_20210115-080337.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    bbc didn't mention snow for the south east tomorrow. 

    I'm expecting nothing but hoping to be pleasantly surprised.. We're going to have to wait and see - the opportunity is there at least 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Perhaps an hour or two tops, but I don't expect too much to settle. Nice to see, but given it will have been a distant memory by lunchtime, a touch pointless. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Perhaps an hour or two tops, but I don't expect too much to settle. Nice to see, but given it will have been a distant memory by lunchtime, a touch pointless. 

    Would rather see pointless Snow falling then pointless cold rain! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Polaris said:

    Would rather see pointless Snow falling then pointless cold rain! 

    Yes, but if I can't make a snowman or take the kids sledging then it may as well rain. 

    Let's see.... fingers crossed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Yes, but if I can't make a snowman or take the kids sledging then it may as well rain. 

    Let's see.... fingers crossed. 

    True but we are entering the coldest part of winter now... 

    Sea Temps on way down land Temps and soil Temps on the way down marginal set ups begin to have a better chance at being on the right side... 

    The overnight runs have also been really good.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

    Deffo a colder feel to today.  Hoping the snow gods are good to us for a change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    True but we are entering the coldest part of winter now... 

    Sea Temps on way down land Temps and soil Temps on the way down marginal set ups begin to have a better chance at being on the right side... 

    The overnight runs have also been really good.. 

    Yes, trends have been better this morning. I think we're so programed to only expect downgrades that we forget the opposite can occur.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom
    1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Yes, trends have been better this morning. I think we're so programed to only expect downgrades that we forget the opposite can occur.

     

    could be downgraded this everning...

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

    could be downgraded this everning...

    That's because 9 times out of ten it does downgrade 

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