South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[slater]

Morning all, well after a pointless 2 weeks of cold in this area, I’d rather now that it warm up a bit.. At least dry windy mild days you can at least feel comfortable going out and about....anyhow if you want snow look at Madrid webcams the City has over 20cm and it’s still falling....Everything has to remember where the UK lies which obviously no one in the model forum did geography at school lol....

[SMU]

Very cold this morning @930

Still -1.3 / -1.5c here with a dusting of snow & freezing fog although the suns up there somewhere

Currently some wintry / snow showers moving into East Kent >Margate down to sandwich...

[Tom Quintavalle]

9 hours ago, sunnijim said:

A tiny dusting in Hither green SE London tonight.

Radar showed it as rain, certainly snow.

Sticking of course 

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

Myself, Wife Colette and her 2 Sons, all had some good news Yesterday, we all received a negative Covid-19Test result.

Last Sunday, Colette woke up with a Sore Throat and a Dry Cough. The following Day, my Stepson ordered some Home Tests Kits, these arrived very promptly on Tuesday Morning, and these were sent off late that Afternoon. My Stepson had to pop the bag containing the swabs, into a specially designated Post Box, a few Miles down the Road. 

Reading the report above from a relative neighbour of mine, about a Mile to my N.W. and that of Leeanne (Snow Raven), about 6 miles to my East in Bexleyheath, of a little Snow falling, it seems I must have been visited by a bit of the "White Stuff", yesterday Evening.

But I was tucked up in bed by 10 PM, and oblivious to what was going on outside.

I did have a little peak at my Phone but I couldn't be bothered to get up from under the duvet, to have a look.

It didn't look a great deal to get excited about anyway! How old am I?

But as we all know, Snow brings out the Child in us.

Just a bit more East in the flow, and the Thames Estuary/Southern North Sea starts to bubble up.

But with Upper Air temps of around -5c/-6c and S.S.T.'s of around +8c, a differential of about 13c/14c isn't going to create a great deal of instability and much depth to any Snow bearing cloud!!

As opposed to 2 of my favourite Thames Snow Streamer events, Christmas Day 1970 and 2nd February 2009.

 

Speaking of 2nd February, a lot of S.E. Members would have read about this epic event, and how it behaved in an unusual manner, compared to other Thames Snow Streamer events.

Our own Paul Sherman, co-wrote a very enlightening article about that event. It will forever go down in Netweather Annals, as Polystyrene Ballsgate! Sorry Paul, couldn't resist.

I hope Paul and Malcolm don't object but below is a link. to that very interesting analysis:

Thames Snow Streamer Event 1/2nd Feb 2009 - Weather Discussion - Winter - Netweather Community Forums

Most of it is way beyond, my technical capabilities. Although it did explain why my Daughter, living in Anerley S.E. London and my Maisonette, when I first joined the Netweather Forum as TOMSE20, had much more Snow on the roof of her Car, than I did in my back Garden, here in Lee.

Lee is 5 and a half Miles E.N.E of Anerley and closer to the "fuel" of the Thames Streamer, Thames Estuary/S. North Sea.

It was also interesting to hear Steve Murr's voice last Night.

Don't think I've heard Steve speak, since he did that video preview with Brickfielder, Glacier Point and John Holmes, regarding Winter prospects a few Years ago.

We are very lucky in the S.E. Region to have 2 Members, such as Paul and Steve.

I've learned so much from them, since I joined the Forum in January 2005.

Again I hope Steve and Malcom don't object but I'd like to post the link to Steve's superb, "Ode to Winter"2005/06.

My Winter Ode- 2005/2006 - Page 2 - Weather Discussion - Winter - Netweather Community Forums

It's a brilliant read, and very informative regarding the sort of Synoptics that can deliver Cold and Snow, to the U.K.

Finally, I'd like to thank those S.E. Members who replied to my P.M. Yesterday, re. this New Year's Days' Snowfall.

You know who you are. Much thanks.

I found out eventually, that it was POLARIS who recorded some settling Snow, on New Year's Day Morning, before it got washed away by Rain.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Eagle Eye]

Morning everyone,

Hope you're well,

So far this Winter we haven't had the best of Winter's, It hasn't been the Snowiest or coldest, Sunniest or Frostiest however what we have had is community, this has been my first Winter Season on this community and it's great to see people persevering despite these terrible times. 

I always thought that the Storms and Connective Discussion was the only thread that I should post in I never really thought about the others, it took me a while to find areas of this Forum but in Winter when tensions are highest in the Mod Thread I find that we all just have a laugh and joke about the amount of Snow that we are getting on this thread. 

After my Mum tested negative just last Week I feel a burden had been lifted off of my shoulders and that venting you're frustration never helps other people unless you vent it when your dreaming and that it's nice to do it to a pretend character when you are dreaming of course you have to know you're dreaming to be able to make a character but dreams are creations of the mind so it is easiest to vent you're frustrations of life to you're understanding part of the mind that soothes you. After doing that lastr night my muscles feel less tense, although they feel tense now becuase i've been sitting in the same position for an hour, and I feel happier again and refreshed to do some learning shame it's Saturday I don't have any school today. 

Anyway I have had a few people go to me to vent their frustrations which I'm surprised about because I thought that I'm not really the helpful character but I guess people think I am and I don't mind if people who need help pm me if you want to.

As to chances for the rest of this Winter well it does seem that in about a week and a half we could begin a cold period with heavy settling snow just like 2018.

At the moment it does look like we could have a Beast from the East considering these Charts have stayed on for many runs now. I feel an allegiance to looking at the Charts daily now and I have noticed that once it gets with 150 Hours the type of Event can be determined pretty well. 

It is just looking at these charts routinely to see wether or not we will get Arctic Air flowing into our Region or wether we will keep the highs. 

At the moment we have it within 250 hours where it does seem to go 50/50 but at the moment it is leaning towards an Arctic ar flow. 

Of course Winter is more than just January and at late January into February it will be determined wether the Arctic Air Travels Down to us. 

However despite all that I have learned the people to ask are @ Paul Sherman and @ Steve Murr for the South East because I still am not the expert.

Thanks

Xander

Edited January 9, 2021 by Sheldon Cooper

[Jamie M]

Some more snowflake pics from last night.

Not sure how it'll be for the next month or so in regards to snow but post 20th will hold some interest due to the potential SSW downwelling but models can't even get 96 h on board. It'll be an interesting week.

Sun starting to break out here this morning from the morning fog with a shower on the way from the east.

0.9c 0.8c dp 

  

Edited January 9, 2021 by Jamiee

[pureasthedriven]

1 hour ago, slater said:

Morning all, well after a pointless 2 weeks of cold in this area, I’d rather now that it warm up a bit.. At least dry windy mild days you can at least feel comfortable going out and about....anyhow if you want snow look at Madrid webcams the City has over 20cm and it’s still falling....Everything has to remember where the UK lies which obviously no one in the model forum did geography at school lol....

I posted in here a week or so before Christmas to say ‘I’m out’ of model watching and the MOD thread after endless runs and commentary of day 10 potential; ‘until I see a snowflake in my area (Gatwick)’ I said. Well, I think I saw about 19 flakes on Weds so I’m as good as my word Had a quick look at the overnight runs across the model suites and exactly the same. Exactly the same. All about day 10+ potential. I would imagine if you’re in the northern ‘half’ of the UK, you’ve not only had plenty of interest so far but also have some interest through January. But as of today, I can’t see anything in the outlook that suggests anything other than average/slightly above/slightly below temps and plenty of chilly rain. Much like we had during this ‘cracking’ easterly this week. 
 

Spain just rubs it in. You need perfect Synoptics down here these days, and even then you can’t nail it on. I maintain that the ‘standard’ snow Synoptics of yore (when, for example, you could get a decent frontal snow event in the SE even from a mobile pm-westerly regime) are over. We can only speculate as to why. But having experienced weather-watching Groundhog Day again this morning, I’ll have another look in February. I fully expect to look on Feb 1st and see a BOOM chart for the 11th

[m1chaels]

So the BBC (I know) has suddenly downgrade the warm up of next week so 5s and 6s from 9s, can't say this sounds like a win but there is an 'event' to look out for overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, m1chaels said:

So the BBC (I know) has suddenly downgrade the warm up of next week so 5s and 6s from 9s, can't say this sounds like a win but there is an 'event' to look out for overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Like I say directly above. Chilly rain. 

[smarklew]

It’s a beautiful morning so I was just going to take the dog out but there are lumps of ice falling from the trees! Never seen anything like it. Think I will wait till it stops before we go out, some of the lumps are pretty big! 

[Frostbite1980]

A bit nippy this morning

[alexisj9]

9 hours ago, JohnG said:

Hi everyone

Been lurking on this site for probably around 12 years. Used to lurk on TWO. Never post but just wanted to share some pics from Folkestone Warren this evening looking out along the white cliffs of Dover.

Beautiful scenes. Very strange cloud formations from Folkestone to Lympne. A few grains of snow this eve mixed in with some sleet. Really was hoping for more from this latest cold spell but hey you win some you lose some . Let’s hope this potential upcoming SSW can deliver in the right location. It’s certainly beginning to show some trends that look quite exciting for us cold and snow fans. Fingers crossed it will deliver this time!!!!!!

John

That's the fog Dover was shrouded under all day, looks beautiful from a distance.

[magicpatch]

Still (just) below 0 (-0.3c) at 11am, sun is slowly breaking through the clouds but not the blue skies picture the MetOffice was forecasting for the whole of today.

Looks like we might get a bright few hours before sunset in 4 and a bit hours, before what seems to be another cold night - and my boiler was condemned on Tuesday so still without central heating! 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

Myself, Wife Colette and her 2 Sons, all had some good news Yesterday, we all received a negative Covid-19Test result.

Last Sunday, Colette woke up with a Sore Throat and a Dry Cough. The following Day, my Stepson ordered some Home Tests Kits, these arrived very promptly on Tuesday Morning, and these were sent off late that Afternoon. My Stepson had to pop the bag containing the swabs, into a specially designated Post Box, a few Miles down the Road. 

Reading the report above from a relative neighbour of mine, about a Mile to my N.W. and that of Leeanne (Snow Raven), about 6 miles to my East in Bexleyheath, of a little Snow falling, it seems I must have been visited by a bit of the "White Stuff", yesterday Evening.

But I was tucked up in bed by 10 PM, and oblivious to what was going on outside.

I did have a little peak at my Phone but I couldn't be bothered to get up from under the duvet, to have a look.

It didn't look a great deal to get excited about anyway! How old am I?

But as we all know, Snow brings out the Child in us.

Just a bit more East in the flow, and the Thames Estuary/Southern North Sea starts to bubble up.

But with Upper Air temps of around -5c/-6c and S.S.T.'s of around +8c, a differential of about 13c/14c isn't going to create a great deal of instability and much depth to any Snow bearing cloud!!

As opposed to 2 of my favourite Thames Snow Streamer events, Christmas Day 1970 and 2nd February 2009.

 

Speaking of 2nd February, a lot of S.E. Members would have read about this epic event, and how it behaved in an unusual manner, compared to other Thames Snow Streamer events.

Our own Paul Sherman, co-wrote a very enlightening article about that event. It will forever go down in Netweather Annals, as Polystyrene Ballsgate! Sorry Paul, couldn't resist.

I hope Paul and Malcolm don't object but below is a link. to that very interesting analysis:

Thames Snow Streamer Event 1/2nd Feb 2009 - Weather Discussion - Winter - Netweather Community Forums

Most of it is way beyond, my technical capabilities. Although it did explain why my Daughter, living in Anerley S.E. London and my Maisonette, when I first joined the Netweather Forum as TOMSE20, had much more Snow on the roof of her Car, than I did in my back Garden, here in Lee.

Lee is 5 and a half Miles E.N.E of Anerley and closer to the "fuel" of the Thames Streamer, Thames Estuary/S. North Sea.

It was also interesting to hear Steve Murr's voice last Night.

Don't think I've heard Steve speak, since he did that video preview with Brickfielder, Glacier Point and John Holmes, regarding Winter prospects a few Years ago.

We are very lucky in the S.E. Region to have 2 Members, such as Paul and Steve.

I've learned so much from them, since I joined the Forum in January 2005.

Again I hope Steve and Malcom don't object but I'd like to post the link to Steve's superb, "Ode to Winter"2005/06.

My Winter Ode- 2005/2006 - Page 2 - Weather Discussion - Winter - Netweather Community Forums

It's a brilliant read, and very informative regarding the sort of Synoptics that can deliver Cold and Snow, to the U.K.

Finally, I'd like to thank those S.E. Members who replied to my P.M. Yesterday, re. this New Year's Days' Snowfall.

You know who you are. Much thanks.

I found out eventually, that it was POLARIS who recorded some settling Snow, on New Year's Day Morning, before it got washed away by Rain.

Regards,

Tom.  

That looks tame lol, it was adult knee high on the ground where I was, central Croydon. It shut the tram trains and shops for three days lol.

Edited January 9, 2021 by alexisj9

[bluebell]

I had to drive my neighbour over to Battle this morning to pick up her car from the garage, driving up on to the Ridge Hastings the trees were shedding icy shards from their branches, the sun kept emerging through the foggy cloud, it was quite a beautiful phenomena! The icy shards were like shiny diamonds cascading down on the road! Pity I couldn’t stop to take a photo.

Hoping we might get cold enough to sprout some of those amazing icicles , I remember some really long ones adorning the perimeter of our home back in the 80’s. . 

[Tom Jarvis]

V rare for my area but have hore frost falling off the trees this morning which is at least 1/2cm long never seen in my area. 

[magicpatch]

(dodgy) sensor in the garden says 1.7c now, nearest weather station which is 7 miles or so south of here still saying -0.3c.

Sun has come out now around here, so maybe it's less apparent to my south? Will pop out for my daily exercise shortly to catch the best of the day before the chilly evening arrives quickly in a few hours. 

[smarklew]

16 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

V rare for my area but have hore frost falling off the trees this morning which is at least 1/2cm long never seen in my area. 

Same here, I’ve been fascinated by it all morning. Never seen anything like it. 

[Bazza118]

The thick freezing fog of early morning has lifted and we now have blue sky and sunshine. The temp has soared up accordingly to a balmy 0.9c

[scrat]

11 hours ago, JohnG said:

Hi everyone

Been lurking on this site for probably around 12 years. Used to lurk on TWO. Never post but just wanted to share some pics from Folkestone Warren this evening looking out along the white cliffs of Dover.

Beautiful scenes. Very strange cloud formations from Folkestone to Lympne. A few grains of snow this eve mixed in with some sleet. Really was hoping for more from this latest cold spell but hey you win some you lose some . Let’s hope this potential upcoming SSW can deliver in the right location. It’s certainly beginning to show some trends that look quite exciting for us cold and snow fans. Fingers crossed it will deliver this time!!!!!!

John

Hi there!  These photos are absolutely amazing! Stunning; thank you for sharing!

 

[snowblind]

Very cold again today. Temp still just below freezing after only getting to 0.2 yesterday. My wife was working this morning, she finished at midday and had to deice the car to drive home.

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, magicpatch said:

Still (just) below 0 (-0.3c) at 11am, sun is slowly breaking through the clouds but not the blue skies picture the MetOffice was forecasting for the whole of today.

Looks like we might get a bright few hours before sunset in 4 and a bit hours, before what seems to be another cold night - and my boiler was condemned on Tuesday so still without central heating! 

I feel your pain. Our boiler packed up on Friday and no-one can come till Tuesday. The sunshine is helping today as it shines In to the lounge and we have a has fire. Test of the house is freezing through.

[Paul Sherman]

Been clear blue skies since 10am here and lovely now at 3.6c 

Hoping it stays clear overnight although we all know that pesky cloud will keep it frost free again 

Roll on the westerlies next week and reset the pattern 

[paget]

55 minutes ago, snowblind said:

I feel your pain. Our boiler packed up on Friday and no-one can come till Tuesday. The sunshine is helping today as it shines In to the lounge and we have a has fire. Test of the house is freezing through.

We haven’t had a boiler (heating) for the whole winter! We are moving (to Scotland) next year and a developer will probably buy my houses so there’s no point in having one put in! We have a huge open fire and we wear a lot!!

[huntso]

Went out this morning to our support bubble.

Left St Ives in thick freezing fog.

Arrived in Sawtry less than 15 miles away northwards to clear blue sky and unbroken sunshine

Car temp read 11c as we got in it to go home admittedly been sat in the sun.

Got home, thick fog again and temp on the dash said 1c

[Freeze]

Another beautiful sunny day after a low of -1c , maxed at 4.7c now currently sitting at 3c.