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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom
    46 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

    Unfortunately there’s a fair few posters who, multiple times a day , as runs come out, race to see who can post the coldest boom charts, usually 10 days out. No doubt for likes.

    Also, as you say, those same people hang on every individual run which causes the rollercoaster emotions so often seen. As John Holmes widely states time and time again just pick one and follow it every 24 hours to look for trends. Less rollercoasters and just a wise thing to do.

    Thankfully there’s some great posters in there as well who do that, have huge amounts of knowledge and talk about possibilities of emerging trends, warm and cold and are very balanced. It just gets tiresome trawling through to find those.

    What can you do? Strictly they’re talking about models. 

    I feel sorry for them. Its some form of OCD i believe...

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    Hi everyone Been lurking on this site for probably around 12 years. Used to lurk on TWO. Never post but just wanted to share some pics from Folkestone Warren this evening looking out along the wh

    Some more photos from a local walk this morning. The freezing fog made everything special...

    Lots of Boom Posts starting to appear again in the MOD Thread so things could start to get interesting in the run upto the weekend as the models start showing the period 21-23rd by the 8th Jan runs.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: St Albans
  • Location: St Albans
    15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Snowing moderately in Stevenage 

    Still rain in St Albans - just 15 miles south.  And the Met Office have now caught up and change their forecast from heavy snow to rain. Must have looked out the window! 😆

    Edited by TonyK St Albans
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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
    15 minutes ago, SHM040519 said:

    More heavy cold rain here!!! I can’t brave the MAD thread. What did 12z UKMO say? 

    12z UKMO was a slight downgrade on what it was showing this morning, but that’s expected, it’s just gone from 10/10 to 8/10 so if that turned up this morning instead, we’d be bouncing off the walls

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    19 minutes ago, SHM040519 said:

    More heavy cold rain here!!! I can’t brave the MAD thread. What did 12z UKMO say? 

    Fields flooded, some rains flooded...

    The winter of discontent! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn

    Moderate snow here in Woburn and sticking on wheeling bin and other surfaces away from ground level. 
     

    Pity the heavier ppn didn’t make it here, always the way. Bet ya dollar if it were warmer it would be raining heavy now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Wasn't expecting this with the week ahead, mild southerlies beginning week after next weekend 

    Clipboard01.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: NW London
    2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Wasn't expecting this with the week ahead, mild southerlies beginning week after next weekend 

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    That would be yesterday's ECM they are using. I don't bother with the BBC weather anymore as I can just use the previous ECM run to see their forecast. 

    Edited by Snowman31
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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Wasn't expecting this with the week ahead, mild southerlies beginning week after next weekend 

    Clipboard01.jpg

    I’ve began to realise that the Beeb (Meteo) just follow every ECM run in sync with daily forecasts. Correct me if I’m wrong but this was yesterday’s ECM
     

    I have lost all faith in Beeb TV forecasts post day 4. They have been very inaccurate in my opinion, showing snow when there wasn’t, showing dry weather when it was bucketing down outside... etc. You get the picture 

    In 2021 is quite shocking how in fact the BBC’s forecasts have been so way out post Day 4. 
     

    Meto, yes they aren’t perfect but these guys have the highest credibility in the U.K. when offering a public weather service. 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    33 minutes ago, TonyK St Albans said:

    Still rain in St Albans - just 15 miles south.  And the Met Office have now caught up and change their forecast from heavy snow to rain. Must have looked out the window! 😆

    I’m just north of Stevenage and at 120m Asl. DP is 0.5 and it’s a bit sleety now. You need to move up here! You can get a lot for your money in St Evenage 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    15 minutes ago, Polaris said:

    I’ve began to realise that the Beeb (Meteo) just follow every ECM run in sync with daily forecasts. Correct me if I’m wrong but this was yesterday’s ECM
     

    And yet there are many who have been using the ECM model in the model thread... hmmm

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    19 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

    My first post on this site and I don't know whether its retrospectiveness is OK for this thread, but here in Surrey we had the fastest-accumulating snow for a long time on the 24th.  Snow began falling at around 0950 and by 1115 or so it was 12cm deep.  The night had been frosty (-3C) so the ground was frozen.  The snow lay for three days, and the 25th was a rare cloudless snow day for Surrey - stunning conditions.

     

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    Welcome to the forum Ian. I moved your post here as the other thread is for observations on the day. Great pics! 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
    27 minutes ago, Polaris said:

    I’ve began to realise that the Beeb (Meteo) just follow every ECM run in sync with daily forecasts. Correct me if I’m wrong but this was yesterday’s ECM
     

    I have lost all faith in Beeb TV forecasts post day 4. They have been very inaccurate in my opinion, showing snow when there wasn’t, showing dry weather when it was bucketing down outside... etc. You get the picture 

    In 2021 is quite shocking how in fact the BBC’s forecasts have been so way out post Day 4. 
     

    Meto, yes they aren’t perfect but these guys have the highest credibility in the U.K. when offering a public weather service. 

    Indeed. The Met Office 10 day forecasts are far better. They will often refer to other model outputs beyond just their own if they are different. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex

    This why for a novice trying to understand the models and what the outcomes are can be hard work. Two posts within a minute of each other 🤷‍♂️ 

     

     

    DA7AC5AC-8260-4A30-AC75-2F13092A5CC8.png

    Edited by simonhall6
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

    This why for a novice trying to understand the models and what the outcomes are. Two posts within a minute of each other 🤷‍♂️ 

     

     

    DA7AC5AC-8260-4A30-AC75-2F13092A5CC8.png

    You’re never going to consistency in the mod thread in winter.. been that way for years.. and rightly so..April is a calm time and the ignore button to mute as you see fit might be of use or online library 

    personally I love it and learned in the model thread applying some of the principles above.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
    2 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

    Indeed. The Met Office 10 day forecasts are far better. They will often refer to other model outputs beyond just their own if they are different. 

    I have to agree.  Leaving aside the actual forecast accuracy, the BBC's on-line weather output is very frequently inconsistent on the same page (not to mention the far-too-frequent typos).  I've lost count of the number of times the text summary for, in my case, London and SE England has said something like "freshening SW winds later tonight", but the hourly breakdown shows a SE light breeze throughout!  The frequency of these inconsistencies with very short-term stuff simply doesn't inspire confidence in anything else.  I think the BBC also tries to inject too much detail accuracy in, for instance, precipitation % chance - especially when the % chance for each hour doesn't tally with when they show the rain falling; e.g. 25% chance of rain with light cloud, then, in the next hour, 18% chance of rain (i.e. less likely) but with light rain shown. 

    Only my second post and moaning already!

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    53 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Wasn't expecting this with the week ahead, mild southerlies beginning week after next weekend 

    Clipboard01.jpg

    My heart sank when I saw this and I have been telling myself not to go into the MOD thread all day. Anyway after seeing this I could not stop myself and guys I got to tell you.

    theres finally some good news on the ECM looks like an upgrade and the cold is not far away. I am still trying to relax my feelings, something has to come out of this time is running out. Fingers crossed we still might be in the game 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants

    Some more photos from up at Black Down. Must have been about 2cm up there, but a light covering enough for snowmen. 

    Drove to another hill nearer Petersfield just as it was getting dark. 240m ASL there and about 2cm there too. A nice surprise today was! 

    81F49959-E7DB-40DF-BA5D-36656A2F5476.jpeg

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    E50EDDFA-6DBE-4635-9A37-B8B0EFD934A5.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Realistic view of model output from the 12zs without the bipolar tendencies of the MOD thread.

    Immediate - rain and sleet - bit of snow north of region - no appreciable accumulation

    Midweek - mostly on the mild side of a couple of battleground events. Any surprises that pop up will be shortlived as the mild push expected to boss matters until Thursday

    Next Weekend - Cold looks likely to push back down from the north from Thursday. Extent and timing completely up in the air at this stage, although most models have us back in a cold set up by Saturday. There will some PPN around, where it comes from depends on which model you believe, but if the cold gets here and soon enough, there is some potential for snow next weekend, although marginality could be a factor, so sleet again in Tunbridge Wells. 

    Beyond - I don't know and anyone who suggests they do, is lying. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    ^I know with 100% certainty that there will be weather beyond next weekend.

    🤪

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    ^I know with 100% certainty that there will be weather beyond next weekend.

    🤪

    Indeed - but I don't think the weekend will be resolved until Tuesday and after the weekend all the models diverge massively. Still good potential for further cold shots and it can't be ruled out that it goes cold and stays cold for a reasonable period from the weekend. 

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