South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Tim Bland]

Harmonie...

[Tim Bland]

Currently 2.8c DP 0.9c in St Evenage so only need to drop another 1c for snow here. Probably get sleet in an hour or so 

[Delka]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM looks good

Snowfall for very almost everyone who hasn’t seen anything yet this year, i’m sure there’d be lots of happy folk on here by Monday  

not sure i believe it’ll be quite 5+ cm near London but for those in the south of the region I hope the ecm is ‘the one’!

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Excitement level increases but until I see tomorrow's runs I'm staying firmly in my comfy seat.. 

[Tim Bland]

ECM has been adminant for the last few days that the front on Sunday will reach our area. other Models have picked up the signal and dropped it. Many of the experienced members and pros even dismissed it earlier...have to take your hat off it if it nails it....If it doesn’t this time...it’s dead to me 

[Polaris]

Cold rain has just started here. Temp 1.8c 

[snowrye]

Hailstones, sounding nice on the velux

[HammerJack]

11 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Cold rain has just started here. Temp 1.8c 

Yep. Cold rain here too. But better than warm rain, when we are praying for some snow at the weekend

[chionomaniac]

With these variable forecasts and marginal scenarios, as far as I am concerned- it doesn’t snow until it snows.  The models suggesting it won’t here have been far more accurate than those that suggest it will.

[wintermaster]

27 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Excitement level increases but until I see tomorrow's runs I'm staying firmly in my comfy seat.. 

me too. Been let down so much the last few years. Fingers crossed we get lucky this time around. 

[lawrenk]

With the snow for me absolutely nailed on for the weekend I thought I’d celebrate with a few JD’s on the rocks this evening.

What can go wrong?

[Daniel*]

UKV has moved to dark side looks good for areas W/SW of London.  

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Daniel* said:

UKV has moved to dark side looks good for areas W/SW of London.  

Looks like it has been dragged kicking and screaming to the ECM

[Polaris]

9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

With these variable forecasts and marginal scenarios, as far as I am concerned- it doesn’t snow until it snows.  The models suggesting it won’t here have been far more accurate than those that suggest it will.

Amen 

I am currently under a warning of snow and ice and it’s raining outside. 
Feels like we are pulling teeth this winter 

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like the little area of showers is ahead of schedule for tonight. It is already moving through the Midlands so might get to see some flakes of snow before bed perhaps.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[paget]

Temperatures are dropping quickly now! 
 

temp 2.3 

dp 1.00 

I still have only one flake on my forecast!!! I’m not holding my breath for it to happen!!

(Farnham, Surrey) 

 

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Amen 

I am currently under a warning of snow and ice and it’s raining outside. 
Feels like we are pulling teeth this winter 

Was the warning for snow tonight?

[Polaris]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Was the warning for snow tonight?

Yes. But it should have been for Ice only 

[Hammer]

Looks heavy Watford and St Albans. Rain?

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Yes. But it should have been for Ice only 

It was a poor warning but the narrative suggested rain and sleet for southern areas. So no it didn’t. 

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Yes. But it should have been for Ice only 

Just to add, my main issue here is with the dreadful metoffice warning. Jeez, I wish I was in control of that department, I would really shake it up and completely overhaul the met office warning system.

[Tim Bland]

Rain is turned to snow over midlands (an hour ago in Birmingham) so wouldn’t be surprised if back edge of what is heading our way turns wintry

[m1chaels]

8 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Looks heavy Watford and St Albans. Rain?

Oh course

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Rain is turned to snow over midlands (an hour ago in Birmingham) so wouldn’t be surprised if back edge of what is heading our way turns wintry

Turning to snow west of Northampton now 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Tim Bland

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It was a poor warning but the narrative suggested rain and sleet for southern areas. So no it didn’t. 

Also should be noted most models keep the snow restricted to that western area of precip.

It's not here yet. As evidenced further west it's turning to snow

So very premature to assume it's a bust. As long as it holds together I'm pretty confident of snow for some areas of EA tonight. Won't be huge amounts but it should fall.

Sunday is firming up well now. Still some southern outliers which only give snow to more southern counties, but the setup is firming up far better than they did last time we had this setup earlier in the month.