South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[RJBingham]

Well the MetO have on offer for us, a single snowflake symbol, for an hour Saturday, only 50% chance though 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

As has been mentioned above and on the Model Thread, a possibility of a little Snow, on Saturday.

This is mentioned by Chris Fawkes in MeteoGroup's extended Forecast. See link below:

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom. 

[Wimbledon88]

3 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

ECM still going with the snow for Sunday

Seriously. Theres not a chance. Just wont be cold enough. Hail shower at best. 

I still have a good feeling about February mind. Still only mid January. Plenty of time for a wintry spell.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[Badgers01]

The over zealous snow chart has been a common theme of the season !

[lottiekent]

Evening

A breezy, damp morning with some brighter spells this afternoon.

So far today we’ve had 16.2mm of rain, so now on 158mm for the month so far.

For comparison, the total for the whole of January 2020 was only 53mm, so I’ve more than trebled that so far with over a third of a month to go!

[Jason M]

2 hours ago, SHM040519 said:

Sadly I can’t see this! Fully expect downgrades each day till then. Been let down too many times to even get excited! 

More chance of an Alien Spaceship landing in my garden than there is of 7cm of snow settling over the weekend. Most likely outcome is it misses us and drops down in northern France.

[Chertseystreamer79]

29 minutes ago, Jason M said:

More chance of an Alien Spaceship landing in my garden than there is of 7cm of snow settling over the weekend. Most likely outcome is it misses us and drops down in northern France.

Gfs 18z has got this!!!!

Edited January 19, 2021 by Chertseystreamer79

[NewEra21]

However unreliable these are, always nice to see those snow symbols!

Edited January 19, 2021 by NewEra21

[southbank]

To he honest these are the only charts I get excited about here in SE . Below is purely for fun as it popped up on GFSP tonight run I really don’t expect to see it on the 0z run but it’s the kind of Synoptics im holding out for that may pop up have ever unlikely 

[Sparky68]

11c this morning ! Still raining , will it ever stop? 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Surprised at no warning for the winds later unless one comes out this morning for later today and overnight unless its been missed with all the other weather issues over the next 48 hours... 

As the storm exits into the North Sea later today the winds really do strengthen across our region especially towards the south coast and Kent.. Easily 70mph in a few exposed spots.. 50-60mph inland for a time.. 

Also note position of jet stream in relation to this storm.. 

 

[Hammer]

Agree Surrey just looked at Met Office wind speeds for a few locations later (midnight for example) certainly for similar values previously warnings have been in place. 

Seems likely they will issue one in a few hours.

[southbank]

13 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

ECM still going with the snow for Sunday

Makes you wonder if the whole point of NWP models are worth the investment and money - the fact that we are only 4 days away a mere 96 hours yet none of the models have an handle on this in my opinion ridiculous 

[NewEra21]

Obviously these charts won't verify anything like this, but as we enter February this is what we have to keep our eyes out for. A beast arriving, I feel we'll get a few shots throughout February. Charts from GFS P.

[Eagle Eye]

12 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

As has been mentioned above and on the Model Thread, a possibility of a little Snow, on Saturday.

This is mentioned by Chris Fawkes in MeteoGroup's extended Forecast. See link below:

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom. 

Any possible on Sunday because that would be brilliant.

[Blazerblue]

2nd morning in a row I’ve not needed my coat on a walk, although it’s a tad breezy, no rain yet and it fizzles out before it reaches here. The winds tonight could be of concern and tomorrow morning looking like they’ll still be blowing hard. Saturday the beeb giving out snow symbols from late afternoon into the night!

[Paul Sherman]

16 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Never been a Fan of the Warning System the Meto use in the Uk and probably never will be. Last week vast swathes of the SE Had nearly 2 Inches of Rain and no warnings given, this week we have 36 hours of warnings for 10mm of rain over 3 days which hopefully is adjusted by the Met Office.

Although I feel the Yellow Rain Warning might indeed be replaced by a Wind Warning as it looks pretty rough for a few hours as a Cold Front clears through our area and gusts as high as 70mph could accompany some lively rainfall. 

The Amber is still warranted for NW Areas as this event is just starting to get going as Christoph now rapidly approaches, some have been led into a false sense of security up north with a little lull in proceedings but the Warm Thermal Conveyer is just now settling into place.

Looking further ahead is the ECM Going to be 5 from 5 with failed Snow Chances over the Weekend for areas further south, if it does then the Euro 4 and Euro Model have been dreadful this winter for modelling precip type.

Agree with others re the Wind around Midnight tonight and I highlighted the fact yesterday afternoon. I think the Meto will put another overlayed warning in about the wind and we will end up with about 100 warnings all overlayed on top of each other, its a stupid system that needs to be changed.

I certainly will watch this come through around Midnight tonight, Temps in front of the Squall are 11c and then drop to 4c after it smashes through. Arome catches the Squall line well, its going to get rough on the leading edge of that for sure.

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

12 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

Any possible on Sunday because that would be brilliant.

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

Hi HS, 

Glad to see you're still posting.

Some of the 00z runs are still showing some Wintry potential, for the Weekend. This from the 00z GFS run:

  

A small feature runs across the South of the U.K. and with Upper Air temperatures of around -6c/-7c, we could see a light fall of Snow in the Region, especially over any high ground.

Why don't you have a trip up to the East Kent Downs, if it comes off? Not far from you, are they?

I can thoroughly recommend Capel-le-Ferne. Had many good Snow chases, up there.

Regards,

Tom. 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Surprised at no warning for the winds later unless one comes out this morning for later today and overnight unless its been missed with all the other weather issues over the next 48 hours... 

As the storm exits into the North Sea later today the winds really do strengthen across our region especially towards the south coast and Kent.. Easily 70mph in a few exposed spots.. 50-60mph inland for a time.. 

Also note position of jet stream in relation to this storm.. 

 

Gordon Benit, hope it does not sting jet, I haven't looked at the other factors, I'm assuming the triple point is further north.

Edited January 20, 2021 by alexisj9

[alexisj9]

I take it our low doesn't exist yet, looking at sat, there's a low moving west above Spain, does something develop on the front straddling us. Or is it that low suddenly rapidly develop again.

[Paul Sherman]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I take it our low doesn't exist yet, looking at sat, there's a low moving west above Spain, does something develop on the front straddling us. Or is it that low suddenly rapidly develop again.

The Low is expected to develop this afternoon over the SW Aprroaches and move NE to exit the East coast between the Humber and Newcastle, very strong winds on its Southern Flank will give us the strong winds later tonight as the cold front moves from west to east and trails along with the LP. Triple Point looks to be around Lincolnshire I would think around 00z

[throwoff]

13 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

The over zealous snow chart has been a common theme of the season !

100% this. FI charts have been blizzards for the last month. I am a strong believer that patterns are worth looking at though. With all the models keeping teasing cold it does make me think something is in the offing as we get into Feb.

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

The Low is expected to develop this afternoon over the SW Aprroaches and move NE to exit the East coast between the Humber and Newcastle, very strong winds on its Southern Flank will give us the strong winds later tonight as the cold front moves from west to east and trails along with the LP. Triple Point looks to be around Lincolnshire I would think around 00z

Below is a clip of MeteoGroup's view for the rest of the Week, courtesy of Matt Taylor.

BBC Weather

Talk of those strong winds that Paul mentions above Tonight, accompanied by a spell of heavy rain.

Much drier on Friday but then that threat of a little Wintry Weather over the Weekend, that some overnight Model runs, were hinting at.

Regards,

Tom. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Agree with others re the Wind around Midnight tonight and I highlighted the fact yesterday afternoon. I think the Meto will put another overlayed warning in about the wind and we will end up with about 100 warnings all overlayed on top of each other, its a stupid system that needs to be changed.

I certainly will watch this come through around Midnight tonight, Temps in front of the Squall are 11c and then drop to 4c after it smashes through. Arome catches the Squall line well, its going to get rough on the leading edge of that for sure.

 

Oooofh I was wondering if there would be a squall with such a temp graidnent, upper jet sorta lining up although it's actually a tad south with the storm exiting north of it I belive.. Could be a recepie for some very strong winds being mixed down to the surface its hard to tell with the fax charts because of the jumps in time to line up the features.. 

Either way.. I've already recorded a 36mph gust here which is the highest we got in thd last storm and we had a warning for that! 

 

 

[Daniel*]

Fax charts are decent for Saturday and Sunday..... best chance of snow so far?