Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

Blessed Weather

By Blessed Weather
in Regional

 Share

Recommended Posts

cookie27 Contributor

cookie27

Posted
  • Location: Greenwich, london
  • Location: Greenwich, london
Posted
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

UKV, ICON, AROME all say no. 

EURO4 consistently over-estimates snow accumulation to a ridiculous level, it has snow falling in Somerset overnight lmao. HARMONIE is OK, but again seems to have the same issue as the EURO4 with overestimating snowfall amounts. I never look at the GFS PPN charts.

So.. when the only two models going for it are the two that often overestimate snow, what conclusion should be drawn on the potential..

ICON doesn't say no, but does delay front until late morning and the others are great North of London and higher south east. 

Appears they forecasting a rapid increase in dewpoint, so that's what we need to keep an eye on. 

I'll be watching all night to see what happens and off for kip soon. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

UKV, ICON, AROME all say no. 

EURO4 consistently over-estimates snow accumulation to a ridiculous level, it has snow falling in Somerset overnight lmao. HARMONIE is OK, but again seems to have the same issue as the EURO4 with overestimating snowfall amounts and seems to be slow to catch on, it was the last model to ditch the idea of snow last week. I never look at the GFS PPN charts.

So.. when the only two models going for it are the two that often overestimate snow, what conclusion should be drawn on the potential..

EURO4/HARMONIE are both outliers compared with all other outputs. 

It’s not so much about amounts as much they both delay >0C uppers coming in from west so of course that would be an upgrade. My experience of ICON and AROME especially latter with yesterday has been poor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, cookie27 said:

ICON doesn't say no, but does delay front until late morning and the others are great North of London and higher south east. 

Appears they forecasting a rapid increase in dewpoint, so that's what we need to keep an eye on. 

I'll be watching all night to see what happens and off for kip soon. 

It says no to London/SE England in terms of accumulating snowfall, I was more specifically talking about that rather than the wider risk across EA/falling snow risk. ICON has nothing at all south of London.

ICON.thumb.jpg.5e7a8415b03adaba4e7b0d70c3e753e5.jpg

Though that is possibly underdoing it slightly, would be surprised to see nothing over the downs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s not so much about amounts as much they both delay >0C uppers coming in from west so of course that would be an upgrade. My experience of ICON and AROME especially latter with yesterday has been poor.

ICON was your go to model last week when it was one of the few showing snowfall though I noted 

I'm not questioning whether we'll see falling snow in London/SE, I think we almost certainly will. I'm questioning the extent of accumulations which to me look isolated/mostly limited to hills based on latest guidance. 

EA fairing much better, but high variation on just how much will accumulate. 

Edited by Met4Cast
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
80sWeather Community Regular

80sWeather

Posted
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards,Hot Thundery nights.
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hopefully it will be a case of sweet Harmonie 

 

Ahh yes the good old  1991 classic tune. Let’s hope we get a Feb 1991 as well.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dubmuffin Enthusiast

dubmuffin

Posted
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)
  • Weather Preferences: hot sunny summers to ripen the veg and cold snowy winters of course
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)
Posted

As much as I hate a snow to rain event - I can't say I'm not looking forward to seeing snow fall - I've been waiting patiently since just after Christmas. Temp -1.8c here - what time should I set my alarm for?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cookie27 Contributor

cookie27

Posted
  • Location: Greenwich, london
  • Location: Greenwich, london
Posted
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

It says no to London/SE England in terms of accumulating snowfall, I was more specifically talking about that rather than the wider risk across EA/falling snow risk. ICON has nothing at all south of London.

ICON.thumb.jpg.5e7a8415b03adaba4e7b0d70c3e753e5.jpg

Though that is possibly underdoing it slightly, would be surprised to see nothing over the downs.

Have a look on meteociel charts completely different to these. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

ICON was your go to model last week when it was one of the few showing snowfall though I noted 

The ICON isn’t a bad model I’ve not been impressed with it though so far, lol always have to find a dig you’re good at that. I don’t think any of the models are particularly good. The UK4 I suppose so, but it has been known to underestimate. The EURO4 I think is a good model I think it did best yesterday with larger depths in Yorkshire? But it shows as snow too easily, but then it’s important to look at parameters. 

Edited by Daniel*
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, cookie27 said:

Have a look on meteociel charts completely different to these. 

??

iconeu_uk1-46-18-0.thumb.png.56869ebfa7aa859449c91da359e64df1.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
exodus Explorer

exodus

Posted
  • Location: Stansted, Essex. 97m asl
  • Location: Stansted, Essex. 97m asl
Posted

I've only just caught up with this potential snow event... Been so busy! I live in North Essex and was due to drive out some deliveries tomorrow... Are we expecting much? Should I give it a miss do you think? Just seen met have amber warning for the area.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

In terms of what to expect tomorrow I'll probably just go with what the Met Office are predicting, not because it's the best outcome but because generally they've got it spot on for our region this winter.

When we were all hopeful of snow from the easterly etc a week or so ago, they were never really interested for our region and pretty much got it spot on. So the fact we've actually got warnings this time, I'm optimistic a lot of us will at least see snow falling tomorrow morning, if only temporary. But some spots, especially EA could get a nice covering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
john mac1 Enthusiast

john mac1

Posted
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
Posted
3 minutes ago, exodus said:

I've only just caught up with this potential snow event... Been so busy! I live in North Essex and was due to drive out some deliveries tomorrow... Are we expecting much? Should I give it a miss do you think? Just seen met have amber warning for the area.

Reckon it will be fine by lunchtime 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Heavy precipitation is key to people seeing accumulating snow and we look to have that for a time, we saw in Yorkshire all the models seriously underestimated the effect this has, while it is not the same situation the front is not stalling. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, Planet Stow said:

Met Office has downgraded the length and intensity of snowfall in North/North East London... 

Not seen that yet but would be interesting to issue Yellow warning then Amber and then reduce again so quickly.

They seem pretty confident but things tend to change quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Hammer said:

Not seen that yet but would be interesting to issue Yellow warning then Amber and then reduce again so quickly.

They seem pretty confident but things tend to change quickly.

The official warnings haven’t been updated. I think PS is talking about his location forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Planet Stow Apprentice

Planet Stow

Posted
  • Location: NE London - Walthamstow
  • Location: NE London - Walthamstow
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The official warnings haven’t been updated. I think PS is talking about his location forecast.

Sorry maybe a generalisation. I checked Harrow Weald, Chingford, Walthamstow, Epping and Rotherhithe and they seem to have some what of a downgrade... 

 

Looks like they have just upgraded Epping... 

Think they are changing every 10/15mins

Edited by Planet Stow
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

Just to add a comment re: EURO4. It currently shows snow accumulations across East Anglia for TODAY. So.. that tells you how poor that model has become. Used to be one of the better models, not sure what's changed with it in the last year or two, so accumulations it's showing across EA for tomorrow is todays non-existent snow + whatever falls tomorrow.

EURO.thumb.png.c3043abc918a50bfbd8bfd94dfb81625.png

 

Edited by Met4Cast
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

1830z readings from here are grim

Temp 3.2c

Dewpoint 2.6c

Lol we have our own Microclimate it seems. I know where I will be heading tomorrow and it aint down the Estuary.

Eeeek

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

1830z readings from here are grim

Temp 3.2c

Dewpoint 2.6c

Lol we have our own Microclimate it seems. I know where I will be heading tomorrow and it aint down the Estuary.

Eeeek

Fits well with the UKV's consistent modelling of rain along the Estuary I suppose.. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...