South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Uxbridge90]

7 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Wow the snow gods have spoken, so that means guaranteed Snow righyt!? Nahhh!!!  Unfortunetely there'll be plenty of places in this zone that don't get lucky 

I personally feel the milder air flanking this front could make for a swift change-over from snow to rain but we'll see... I suppose a covering of snow that lasts for half a day is better than no snow right?! 

On the wider conversation - I'm actually quite glad we've lost the nagging marginal flow coming off the North Sea now - it failed to deliver for most South of Lincolnshire. I actually believe a marginal cold North Westerly or even Westerly  may be better for us guys, anything that doesn't come straight off the North Sea!! Obviously this changes if the uppers are cold enough, but if they aren't then it's just heartache all round. 

 

Half a day would be a good result, I think a few hours at best. 

[lassie23]

20 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

I've given up looking at the MOD thread, now i'm no coldie but it would be nice to have an actual winter with snow laying around all over the place but until I see it, I have no optimism whatsoever no matter how excited people are in that thread. 

At the moment it is transient snow, we deserve better than that down here, what's the point in a couple of hours of snow and then it is washed away by rain.

[Jamie M]

 

UKV on Met Office's warning tweet gives some snow for pretty much everywhere in the SE.

[Blazerblue]

11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What the hell!?!...again no snow on the coasts? that's cold rain for me (again) for the sixth time this winter!!.

Snap.

[James Maidstone]

The Met Office seem to be a little out on a limb for this one, the other models aren't really giving signals of settling snow for Kent, either not cold enough or the precipitation intensity is only sufficient over East Anglia.. Interesting one to follow.

GFS has uppers way to high for one..

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by James Maidstone

[southbank]

Its only a yellow due to potential impact rather than potential likelyhood - defo a wait and see  but i have a feeling again we be on wrong side of marginal and more likely this be downgraded as  we get closer to the event or the area effected gets shrank

[NewEra21]

Not to give false hope once again, but things are starting to look better cold wise again now for next week

[Met4Cast]

Here are my thoughts.

UKV/AROME/EURO4 now all in agreement for a transient period of snowfall across the region tonight/early tomorrow morning. Snowfall along the leading edge possibly giving accumulations quite widely before turning back to rain early morning as warmer air makes inroads across the region. 

The reason for the upgrade in snow is a slightly slower warm front keeping the milder air at bay, shown well here on the FAX & latest UKV run.

 

Peak snow risk: 5am-7am. 

Full transition back to rain across the entire region between 7-9am. 

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Here are my thoughts.

UKV/AROME/EURO4 now all in agreement for a transient period of snowfall across the region tonight/early tomorrow morning. Snowfall along the leading edge possibly giving accumulations quite widely before turning back to rain early morning as warmer air makes inroads across the region. 

The reason for the upgrade in snow is a slightly slower warm front keeping the milder air at bay, shown well here on the FAX & latest UKV run.

 

Peak snow risk: 5am-7am. 

Full transition back to rain across the entire region between 7-9am. 

I'm not keen on UKV it shows rain along the Thames corridor where much of our population including myself live I hope its wrong! 

[dallas]

51 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Push of colder air from the Continent Mick later this afternoon establishes overnight so when the system arrives tomorrow morning winds are southerly ahead of it meaning no warming of the air from the Sea (only inland about 10 miles from the South Coast) will be wrong side of marginal and hence you only really need -4c to -6c uppers

A southerly more favourable than an easterly madness eh and what makes us love the weather so much

Nice shout from last week Paul, you called it

[Stu_London]

I think tomorrow will be a bust for most and very transient at best for anywhere where it does deliver

Looking at the macro-view models have firmed up considerably for the period up to 180 (during which time there wont be a significant cold spell). The last week of January looks interesting with 2 or 3 potential battleground events possible. We might need things to shift south a bit in respect of these. I would rather rely on them having to move south than north.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

I think tomorrow will be a bust for most and very transient at best for anywhere where it does deliver

Looking at the macro-view models have firmed up considerably for the period up to 180 (during which time there wont be a significant cold spell). The last week of January looks interesting with 2 or 3 potential battleground events possible. We might need things to shift south a bit in respect of these. I would rather rely on them having to move south than north.

Maybe yes, maybe no -- but try putting yourself in the shoes of us snow-starved sods living in the Triangle of Doom: bugger all storms, and no lying snow since the BFTE...? Roll on tomorrow morning!

[Gowon]

22 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

At the moment it is transient snow, we deserve better than that down here, what's the point in a couple of hours of snow and then it is washed away by rain.

C'mon bro!.. You're sounding like a spoilt child and that's not you.. What's this about we deserve better? - the weather doesn't owe us anything 

 

[Dami]

I wish the METO would sort it out. Under a snow warning and my symbols are rain/sleet. A very cheeky heavy snow symbol has vanished and had been replaced with light rain!

It's not on you know!

(joke)

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Maybe yes, maybe no -- but try putting yourself in the shoes of us snow-starved sods living in the Triangle of Doom: bugger all storms, and no lying snow since the BFTE...? Roll on tomorrow morning!

Good luck Pete - if anywhere will get anything, East Anglia looks best. Think the last week of Jan will be interesting.

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

C'mon bro!.. You're sounding like a spoilt child and that's not you.. What's this about we deserve better? - the weather doesn't owe us anything 

 

it so does lol, think the last snow i saw was that march thingy

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Fingers crossed for a couple of hours of falling snow here in H.Bay in the morning.  Some unexpected sleety drizzle currently here and nearest weather station (Manston) has DP below zero atm so may see a few flakes if intensity picks up!

[m1chaels]

So yesterday's front that brought only rain was quite happy to stall, tomorrow's that might bring snow on the leading edge will sweep through....

[Paul Sherman]

Dewpoints are key in this event just watch them spread in later this afternoon and overnight and go quite a bit negative. You only have to look at XCWeather or the NW Charts and see those -1c and -2c dewpoints already approaching the SE Kent Coast area coming in from NE France. You dont have to worry when Air Temps are at 2c for instance as any heavier Evaporative Cooling will drag the Isotherm down to 0c to 1c. We will then have Temps of 1c and Dps of -2c by tomorrow morning. By late morning as the milder air encroaches from the west the temps will rise to 3c and Dps of 1c and Snow on the back edge will turn to Sleet then Rain.

In conclusion absolutely nothing like last weeks cold spell, different synoptics completely. Areas close to the coast are going to struggle though, sweet spots for me will be North Essex into Suffolk and Norfolk and also Chilterns and North Downs.

Looking further ahead I will start to look at Models for the T240-t300 for the end of January from tomorrow as that is what I have always said, it has been amusing seeing the peaks and troughs of the Model Rollercoaster and there really was little point in looking at runs when the models were in chaos before they settle.

I stand by what my thinking is that better snow chances will come as the Jet relaxes south last week of Jan giving way to Battleground Snow favouring the Midlands and North at first but when it relaxes far enough South it really will bring us into the game more. Keep the Faith people

[jimben]

30 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Not to give false hope once again, but things are starting to look better cold wise again now for next week

Once again at the magical and elusive 10 day mark

[Southender]

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dewpoints are key in this event just watch them spread in later this afternoon and overnight and go quite a bit negative. You only have to look at XCWeather or the NW Charts and see those -1c and -2c dewpoints already approaching the SE Kent Coast area coming in from NE France. You dont have to worry when Air Temps are at 2c for instance as any heavier Evaporative Cooling will drag the Isotherm down to 0c to 1c. We will then have Temps of 1c and Dps of -2c by tomorrow morning. By late morning as the milder air encroaches from the west the temps will rise to 3c and Dps of 1c and Snow on the back edge will turn to Sleet then Rain.

In conclusion absolutely nothing like last weeks cold spell, different synoptics completely. Areas close to the coast are going to struggle though, sweet spots for me will be North Essex into Suffolk and Norfolk and also Chilterns and North Downs.

Looking further ahead I will start to look at Models for the T240-t300 for the end of January from tomorrow as that is what I have always said, it has been amusing seeing the peaks and troughs of the Model Rollercoaster and there really was little point in looking at runs when the models were in chaos before they settle.

I stand by what my thinking is that better snow chances will come as the Jet relaxes south last week of Jan giving way to Battleground Snow favouring the Midlands and North at first but when it relaxes far enough South it really will bring us into the game more. Keep the Faith people

Agree re: tomorrow. Danbury will be a good spot.

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dewpoints are key in this event just watch them spread in later this afternoon and overnight and go quite a bit negative. You only have to look at XCWeather or the NW Charts and see those -1c and -2c dewpoints already approaching the SE Kent Coast area coming in from NE France. You dont have to worry when Air Temps are at 2c for instance as any heavier Evaporative Cooling will drag the Isotherm down to 0c to 1c. We will then have Temps of 1c and Dps of -2c by tomorrow morning. By late morning as the milder air encroaches from the west the temps will rise to 3c and Dps of 1c and Snow on the back edge will turn to Sleet then Rain.

In conclusion absolutely nothing like last weeks cold spell, different synoptics completely. Areas close to the coast are going to struggle though, sweet spots for me will be North Essex into Suffolk and Norfolk and also Chilterns and North Downs.

Looking further ahead I will start to look at Models for the T240-t300 for the end of January from tomorrow as that is what I have always said, it has been amusing seeing the peaks and troughs of the Model Rollercoaster and there really was little point in looking at runs when the models were in chaos before they settle.

I stand by what my thinking is that better snow chances will come as the Jet relaxes south last week of Jan giving way to Battleground Snow favouring the Midlands and North at first but when it relaxes far enough South it really will bring us into the game more. Keep the Faith people

Fantastic post Thanks! I've been checking the snowfall charts on Wetter for my location there's been an increase towards months end ❄?

[dallas]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Fantastic post Thanks! I've been checking the snowfall charts on Wetter for my location there's been an increase towards months end ❄?

I wonder if our paltry sea level will see snow tomorow

[Nick F]

I'd better get the sledge out and on the slopes at the crack of dawn before it all melts after breakfast lol.

Shame the front doesn't stall like yesterday, but beggars can't be choosers, make the most of the white stuff while it last, early night and set the alarm for 5am. Could be a while until the next opportunity.

 

[Methuselah]

I might invest in a Transformer, one that converts from a sledge to a barbecue (and vice versa) at the press of a button!