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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

    I don't agree with this idea that a bit of snow will affect the vaccine roll out - other countries with cold climate seem to mange? 

    We are talking about the UK though, notorious for grinding to a halt after 1cm (especially my way!). Those colder countries manage because they manage snowy conditions well anyway, since they're used to it.

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    Lordy, lordy, an agent provocateur

    Another day, another 2 degree rain. I lost count of them. It's an absolute joke. 20 years ago this would have been all snow.   What a waste. So frustrating after a frustrating year and on to

    Given that euphoria brought on by too much 'sniffing the coffee' has now become an art form, a quick reminder that counselling is still available, Mon-Frid, at the 'nailed on' clinic

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I don't agree with this idea that a bit of snow will affect the vaccine roll out - other countries with cold climate seem to mange? 

    agree with this, should also help get transmission down, hopefully less bods out, schools closed

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I think a widespread snowy spell would affect the vaccine roll-out to some extent, as has happened locally with recent snowfalls in N England and the big snowstorm in New York recently, due to the disruption to transport.  How much is unclear, as the relative lack of traffic on our roads should help to some extent.  On the other hand snow-related disruption to transport and school closures would probably also slow the spread of Covid-19 (I had overlooked this last point to a significant extent when I was in two minds about this possible snowy spell), so it isn't clear that it would make things substantially worse overall from a Covid-19 perspective. 

    I also saw a couple of posts in the Covid-19 spell noting that a cold easterly spell might take Covid-19 some way out of its "4C and near-100% humidity" comfort zone, but there is some uncertainty over that as well.

    The bottom line is that it's unclear what the overall effect would be, but that's better than a high likelihood of it being disastrous.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    No, but I have to agree about the wet & muddy walks, my local park is still totally flooded!

    I love severe cold and snowy weather (not cold rain or sleet!) but this year I'm really looking forward to some dryer warmer weather conditions. 🌞 😎

    We definitely don't want more rain and yes, once I've had my snow fix I will be looking forward to a warm dry spring🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    5 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    We are talking about the UK though, notorious for grinding to a halt after 1cm (especially my way!). Those colder countries manage because they manage snowy conditions well anyway, since they're used to it.

    🤣 Too true. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    6 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    No, but I have to agree about the wet & muddy walks, my local park is still totally flooded!

    I love severe cold and snowy weather (not cold rain or sleet!) but this year I'm really looking forward to some dryer warmer weather conditions. 🌞 😎

    Here here, very much looking forward to that lovely warm sun on my face, sitting out in the garden, trees coming to leaf, flowers blooming, sun setting after 8pm and later on in the season looking out for storms!

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    It’s generally like that ..... understandable because that’s what the models are showing 

    Never understood why people look forward to a snow to rain event ....even if it stays as snow the positive Dp’s that follow mean the snow so. becomes slushy and drip drip drip

    the renewed easterly delivers some troughs and snow plus more to follow ....

     

    You might want to check my location - on the west coast of England, an Easterly is absolutely a waste of time this far to the west. If the cold but generally dry easterly is going to breakdown in these parts I'd want it to breakdown with an atlantic low so we can get a dumping as  it breaks down, once the East has been well and truly buried. And there's the plus side the trajectory I'd sent it on would provide further snow to the East to finish the event. 

     

    On this side of the country were generally as perplexed by the idea of looking forward to an Easterly as you are by me looking forward to a Westerly Atlantic breakdown... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    3 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

     

    You might want to check my location - on the west coast of England, an Easterly is absolutely a waste of time this far to the west. If the cold but generally dry easterly is going to breakdown in these parts I'd want it to breakdown with an atlantic low so we can get a dumping as  it breaks down, once the East has been well and truly buried. And there's the plus side the trajectory I'd sent it on would provide further snow to the East to finish the event. 

     

    On this side of the country were generally as perplexed by the idea of looking forward to an Easterly as you are by me looking forward to a Westerly Atlantic breakdown... 

    Totally agree, posted something similar in thenother thread but got lost in the chat about how much snow the south east was getting. The only ray of hope for us westerners is a slow breakdown when the cold is still in place as opposed to a slow draining away of the cold...the first part, the cold being in place looks good, ecm though smashes a low straight thru...hope we get better orientation along the lines of the met forecast.

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    1 hour ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    We are talking about the UK though, notorious for grinding to a halt after 1cm (especially my way!). Those colder countries manage because they manage snowy conditions well anyway, since they're used to it.

    Well colder countries mandate winter tyres, some of the tyres are so effective they gouge the road up.  Vaccine delivery vehicles will probably have winter tyres but that won't stop them getting stuck in queues behind those that don't.

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
    25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Its probably the snowiest ensemble member I've ever seen, to have such a large percentage of the entire UK and Ireland as wel above 20cms with a considerable area between 30-45cms is very impressive.

    Of course, its 100% not going to happen! 

    But its nice to see every once in a while. Maybe I'll do the same for tomorrow runs if I get time?

    Well the Vaccine roll out would grind to a stand still and we'd be able to store Pfizer outside.. well almost 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    9 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Evening all 🙂

    My comments last night drew some attention - I thought the 12Z suite of model output was uninspiring in terms of the severity and longevity of any cold "spell". Indeed, with GFS OP it never really got cold in the south and for southern areas it was at most a 3-5 day cold snap simply because the trough never cleared away from the south coast and eventually was able to return north as heights relaxed over Scandinavia and Greenland.

    Some earlier charts had suggested a cold spell of 10-14 days but this was more snap than spell though I appreciate for the north it was a much longer cold period.

    The fact was last evening every single model had killed the cold snap by T+240 but as a wise man once said, that was then but this is now.

    T+120 takes us to the 8th, T+240 to 13th, T+312 to the 16th and T+384 to the 19th.

    12Z GEM: by T+120 an E'ly covers the whole of the British Isles with LP over western France and heights to the north but a new Atlantic LP is extending its energy east towards the British Isles. Uppers below -8 over most of the British Isles but from -4 to -8 over the far south east. From there, a wedge of heights slips south to the east of the British Isles but an intense LP forms in the Atlantic and swings NE past Ireland before moving north west and west in the circulation of the trough. All this does however is to raise heights to the south and turn the trough alignment positive bringing a SSW'ly over Ireland by T+180.  Calm conditions elsewhere by this time with the coldest air confined to south-east England with uppers still below -8 with negative uppers elsewhere for now and milder air close to Cornwall. From there, not much changes - one lobe of LP gets across the centre of the British Isles but the main trough is still held to the west by the cold block to the north east. Milder air with 850s of +4 over southern England but colder air hangs on further north despite heights over Iberia.

    image.thumb.png.bb93f14fd7d516869b2eb033d3e3ab6f.pngimage.thumb.png.00b26ffa86b56974ff2fbfcecf27004b.pngimage.thumb.png.89b2021a598ac56008c7ad4806cd3d38.png

    A little better than yesterday to be honest but it's still only 3-5 days of cold for the south albeit longer duration for the north.

    12Z GFS OP - given how progressive the GFS usually is, I expect the cold snap to be over before it's begun. At T+120 a complex trough lies to the south of the British Isles with a secondary centre over south-east England and a main centre still far to the west. Heights to the north and north west and 850s below -8 for most of the British Isles but some slightly less cold air near the residual LP over south-east England. From there, the E'ly holds firm with the Atlantic troughs sliding SE into France. A more intense LP from lower latitudes comes into mid-Atlantic and stalls by T+180 throwing energy east towards the British Isles with a SE'ly over Ireland and an ESE'ly over the far north. Uppers of -8 or below persist over northern Britain but less cold air is coming in from the south west. From there, the Atlantic trough elongates as it tries to push east against the block and a secondary LP forms to the south and quickly deepens into an intense LP which looks to push the trough into a more positive alignment and in the interim pushes a lobe of energy east over southern Britain. A cyclonic SW'ly flow over most parts by T+240 with uppers either side of zero across all parts and the really cold air pushed away to the north. 

    image.thumb.png.a0c82a6e08b137ea1db4f68b08cd5fd1.pngimage.thumb.png.e5359e61a20be6daaf65ad86711f2e36.pngimage.thumb.png.5a164d4f98781e7b38a18651e109c109.png

    Not dissimilar to the ECM but you sense there's a real fight brewing against the persistent block and the evolution isn't as clear cut as it was yesterday. Nonetheless, the cold has gone from all parts by T+240 so a 3 day cold snap in the south and a 5-day cold spell in the north.

    12Z Parallel - back tonight and at T+120 it's managed quite a clean ejection of the trough from the south and south east with an ENE'ly over all parts by this time. The upstream profile is less encouraging with the trough trying to send energy to the north. 850s from -4 to -8 over southern England but below -8 over most of the British Isles.  From there, the E'ly holds for a while until, as we've seen, a vigorous LP from lower latitudes swings NE to invigorate the trough in mid-Atlantic but by T+180 the jet still looks quite far south but a lobe of energy is extending ENE towards Ireland with a SSE'ly air flow over most of the British Isles. Uppers of zero to -4 over southern areas but the colder air holds firm further north and east with uppers below -8. The first Atlantic trough moves over the British Isles and then slides SE but a new more vigorous trough forms in mid-Atlantic by T+240 and that causes heights to rise over Iberia and a mild SW'ly air flow to establish over the British Isles by T+240. Positive uppers have reached Ireland but 850s still below -4 over northern and eastern areas.

    image.thumb.png.748346c33d9753c184e52efb7b1f2f52.pngimage.thumb.png.4a4d88b2093aa821b16df48cba8e3594.pngimage.thumb.png.eeaa3a9d23e9b97208281cdadd60d8d7.png

    It looks game over for the cold spell but again it's less  convincing than last night and relies on a vigorous Atlantic trough setting up.

    12Z ECM: at T+120 all parts are in an E'ly air flow with the LP having moved cleanly south over France. There's a new LP developing upstream with heights to the north west. 850s below -8 over most of northern Britain and -4 to -8 over southern parts. From there, the new Atlantic feature develops as a complex trough but moves steadily towards the British Isles and by T+192 is just off western Ireland throwing a S'ly air flow in front and spawning new heights over Iberia. Cold air persists with uppers below -8 in eastern areas but milder air is edging toward the south-west. From there, a new LP develops within the circulation of the trough and swings NE past North-West Scotland by T+240 bringing in a WSW'ly air flow to all parts. By this time, uppers either side of zero over all parts with the really cold air shunted well to the north and east. 

    image.thumb.png.7e6b1032d4bf48a9f4010227238f523b.pngimage.thumb.png.a8f03eaadc837c74e7d1202b68e312b6.pngimage.thumb.png.f19aa1dc5f4f8f1fcd28bdaab15e12cd.png

    And so it goes - perhaps the evolutions are less convincing tonight but the net effect is the same - ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel all end the cold spell by T+240 so for most it's a 3-5 day snap rather than an extended spell - at least that's how it looks at the moment.

    Moving further ahead, the far FI charts from GFS OP and Parallel - T+312 and T+384:

    image.thumb.png.fc76c0c083d18dab714d43361858cb84.pngimage.thumb.png.4f0bacdb0219bea2ae9b51e7f7a5bc1f.png

    image.thumb.png.6b33c49aeee472b84954b45af5f0ee9e.pngimage.thumb.png.a1866ff7d38e5e742fb612b1f60a3d26.png

    OP goes traditional zonal with lots of LP and a PV in its usual place but Parallel teases a more anticyclonic solution. We don't quite get a full-on Scandinavian HP - indeed, the HP sinks south before rebuilding  over the British Isles. It's one to watch I think.

    Conclusion: it still looks a short-lived cold episode to this observer tonight. The breakdown is slightly less convincing and this "could" be the start of a backpedal from the models against the strength of the cold block which means I could be looking at similar T+240 charts next week as the cold persists. Maybe but I need more convincing - for now it looks the block won't hold and the Atlantic will do wnough to push the cold air aside by the end of next week. 

     

    Sorry for full copy. Wax and wane mate twas ever the case in 79 and other classic winters never all cold. Sw always at the mercy of heavy snow and floods whilst further NE stays In the cold with bouts of very wintry weather. Nothing will change due to what we are, an island surrounded by water and at the end of the gulf stream

    Like it or not the North of Britain has had wintry weather since New Year. Already shaping up to be a classic for them. 

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, big storms and extreme weather
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
    4 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Blimey after reading some of the posts above I just had to check I didn't imagine the ECM run....

    image.thumb.png.952c38626d373874760ff3cbfab00271.png No I thought not!

    I think I put on some REM to cheer myself up!

    Only track that would fit is “The End of the World”! Love it! 🎶🎵🎶 Sorry Mods 🥰

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Current GFS op showing this chart attached. Perhaps an unpopular opinion but I'd like to see this more often anytime of the year! Nice dry long draw Southerlies, imagine this in July 🔥🔥🔥

     

    hgt500-1000 (2).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    30 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    Current GFS op showing this chart attached. Perhaps an unpopular opinion but I'd like to see this more often anytime of the year! Nice dry long draw Southerlies, imagine this in July 🔥🔥🔥

     

    hgt500-1000 (2).png

    That looks good! Get the BBQ out 😋

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    32 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    Current GFS op showing this chart attached. Perhaps an unpopular opinion but I'd like to see this more often anytime of the year! Nice dry long draw Southerlies, imagine this in July 🔥🔥🔥

     

    hgt500-1000 (2).png

    All the Mildies are coming out the woodwork today 🤣

     

    Tbh that's a pretty tidy set up if you like that kind of thing, would certainly be pleasant out and about. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    8 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

    All the Mildies are coming out the woodwork today 🤣

     

    Tbh that's a pretty tidy set up if you like that kind of thing, would certainly be pleasant out and about. 

    Always gotta keep a balanced mindset haven't we 😏

    But yes it's certainly going to get colder though how cold and if snow is involved will come later 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    Pathetic global warming thanks to stupid politicians like Trump not taking action on climate control!

    The world is messed up with bush fires, flooding, droughts and now Covid. abc!!!!!

    502BA363-AC37-4D50-AAB1-7034231F73B1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor

    As a complete newbie to this forum, I've been following the model thread avidly and am unsure how the current wintery weather will affect me up on Dartmoor in the SW. Any ideas?

    We always seem to get snow when others do, but the charts seem to show no snow in a lot of areas around me.

    It'd be good to get an idea if I need to stock up on bits!

    Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    Hi - 

    7 minutes ago, gman88667733 said:

    As a complete newbie to this forum, I've been following the model thread avidly and am unsure how the current wintery weather will affect me up on Dartmoor in the SW. Any ideas?

    We always seem to get snow when others do, but the charts seem to show no snow in a lot of areas around me.

    It'd be good to get an idea if I need to stock up on bits!

    Thanks

    Morning - I'd ask in your regional thread for the best answers. It's just a bunch of weirdos in this section!

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    from this weirdo, who is also from the SW. I'm feeling the ramp mood today.

    Red Warnings from Met O, next week? I think could be a possibility

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    Posted
  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor
    10 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

    from this weirdo, who is also from the SW. I'm feeling the ramp mood today.

    Red Warnings from Met O, next week? I think could be a possibility

    In our area?!

    Edited by gman88667733
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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    to much excitement in the Mod thread, thought id come here for a more realistic opinion as we all know that if it can go wrong for the uk then it will, we are still 4 days away from the potential colder weather which means lots of time for change and not in a good way if its cold and snow you are after.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    Based on the current model output, I expect more widespread severe weather warnings out before lunch and the consequent bread, milk and toilet roll panic buying. Sorry if slightly off topic but this is looking pretty severe for next week.

    Edited by Notty
    Typo
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